Member Info for doubleorquits8

Wow, what an overreaction- Investor call was all positive for me so clicked buy £150k. This drop bakes in wider market uncertainty risk. Trump will not want to kill Dubai market or he will not get his new net Air Force 1! Mid terms also… uk housing is turning a corner also. Great entry price given this was 730p last week… and things have generally only improved over the last year for Vistry

Trading update tomorrow according to Vistry financial calendar, not 7th…

I’m not in yet, may regret it!! Last update market initially took badly creating good entry opportunity…! But in the back of my mind have Barclays saying 500p and we have two weeks until Reeves bad news, we all have to pay more tax day! Hope she listened to Ryan Air OLeary saying Britain is doomed under their taxation plans… house builders reaction to her budget will either be the low or a recovery play. I suspect a new low

Two pieces on broker views. Both pretty negative and say all good news priced in. I’m holding off going in until budget is out. I think Vistry is one of the best placed to deliver in partnership model but and it’s a big but, controlling build cost is a tough gig. Any badly priced jobs on land and build cost becomes bad news and a “legacy project”… I hear Berkeley Group have stopped hiring for some schemes… this doesn’t fill me with confidence to go long yet… Vistry range trading looks like the best play. Id love an entry closer to 500!!

A good pod worth listening to is also attached. The conclusion of which is the uk housing recovery phase and going long isn’t quite here yet…

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/recent-developments-reshaping-vistra-investment-122444637.html

https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/vistry-group-plc-lonvty-given-consensus-recommendation-of-reduce-by-analysts-2025-10-31/

https://spotify.link/MI3YeZ1sVXb

“Vistry Group PLC (LON:VTYV): The homebuilder is Barclays’ sole "Underweight" recommendation, with analysts forecasting 21% downside due to concerns about the company’s ability to meet growth targets while reducing debt.

The report comes as UK stocks face a mixed outlook, with Barclays’ equity strategists noting that while the FTSE 100 offers defensive value and China exposure, uncertainty around fiscal policy and potential tax hikes could pressure domestic UK assets.”

PaulCY thanks for sharing the times article. Such a thorough bit of investigative journalism, must have take a week to research and write.

On the RNS it is clear Vistry’s boards collar is being well and truly felt by share holders, and not PI share holders, but by institution investors and mainstream banks who no doubt provide debt funding to Vistry. They will be having significant pressure applied to split the roles FG is doing and ensure Vistry success is not tied to FG. A bit like when Berkeley sadly lost Tony P the company continued with business as usual and was seen as having a strong senior leadership team, so strong indeed that its share price was barely impacted by TP sudden departure. If FG left the market reaction would plunge Vistry sp

Would be great if someone can copy and paste, can’t ready via Peter Bill on X

Pretty positive still

“Deutsche Bank’s share target drops to 1,100p from 1,180p but he rating remains at ‘buy’ given the longer-term potential of the partnerships model.”

Thank you Paul, good balanced read.

Has anyone read the Times article on Fitzgerald offering his resignation? I’m not a subscriber so can’t read it…! What’s the upshot? That the board said no need to resign?

Lots of warnings in the trading update:

- Increase impact of cost misreporting

- UK budget impact of £5m directly and unquantified impact on supply chain

- 15% short on land for FY25 target

Given persimmon drop on cost warning due to UK budget I struggle to see the market taking this update positively…

Sadly BP and Shell will both fall with the rest of the market as the market continues to slide down to correction levels (eg S&P 500 pre covid at 3300) together with recession fears. BoE warning that this is going to be bigger shock to financial markets since 1970 convinced me to go to cash on all holdings and sold BP at 420. Kicked myself when BP at 450 but now glad to be out. Catch a falling knife is dangerous and better to miss the bottom and catch it when we are coming back out of dark days and go with your gut rather than the daily swings of market manipulating media calling one day bad news next day good etc creating wild swings

“ Putin has signed a decree to seize the rights to Shell’s gas project in Russia in a move that could force the British energy giant to abandon its investment.

A statement from the Kremlin ordered the rights to the Sakhalin-2 facility to be transferred to a new Russian company, citing threats to the country’s national interests and economic security.

Shareholders have one month to say whether they’ll take stakes in the new company and were warned they may not be fully compensated if they opt out.

The move could spark complications for Shell, which holds a 27.5pc stake in Sakhalin-2.

The firm previously said it will sell its holding – worth an estimated $4.1bn (£3.4bn) – as part of its withdrawal from Russia.

It is not clear whether Shell will be able to find a buyer, although Chinese state energy companies have been linked to a potential deal.”

“ Putin has signed a decree to seize the rights to Shell’s gas project in Russia in a move that could force the British energy giant to abandon its investment.

A statement from the Kremlin ordered the rights to the Sakhalin-2 facility to be transferred to a new Russian company, citing threats to the country’s national interests and economic security.

Shareholders have one month to say whether they’ll take stakes in the new company and were warned they may not be fully compensated if they opt out.

The move could spark complications for Shell, which holds a 27.5pc stake in Sakhalin-2.

The firm previously said it will sell its holding – worth an estimated $4.1bn (£3.4bn) – as part of its withdrawal from Russia.

It is not clear whether Shell will be able to find a buyer, although Chinese state energy companies have been linked to a potential deal.”

I think at these prices at the pumps people will be gentle on the peddle and avoiding all unnecessary trips. Demand destruction underway

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/White-House-Ups-Anti-Oil-Company-Rhetoric.html

The White House is doubling down on its rhetoric against oil and gas companies in the wake of higher gasoline prices—rhetoric that is likely to do precious little to inspire long term investments in an industry that is scrambling to meet demand—but one that could garner support for a possible windfall tax on the heavily profitable industry.

"It's outrageous that oil and gas companies are able to take advantage and make four times the profits that they made when there wasn't a war," deputy director of the National Economic Council Bharat Ramamurti told CNN in a phone interview on Thursday.

Ramamurti wasn't dismissive about the windfall tax either. When asked by CNN if the White House would support the windfall profit tax, he replied, "We review all of those proposals. We are open to lots of different ideas. We realize there is a problem here we need to tackle."

President Biden upped his anti-oil company rhetoric on Wednesday night on Jimmy Kimmel Live, accusing oil companies of making "more money not drilling and buying back their own stock."

Not priced in…

“ Investing.com -- The S&P 500 deepened losses on Thursday as investors remain wary of bullish bets on stocks ahead of an inflation report that could embolden the Federal Reserve to stick with its aggressive plans to tighten monetary policy measures.
The S&P 500 fell 1.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.1%, or 350 points, and the Nasdaq was down 1.8%.”

Chandley, spoke too soon…

DOW - Down
FTSE - Down
Crude - Down
Shell - Down
BP - Down

I read a piece in The Times last week, it effectively said that if oil keeps going up it will self extinguish share price rises through reduced consumption.

I sold out a bit early at 420 ish and kicking myself having held for a couple of years! But my thoughts are the S&P 500 relief rally is soon to turn south, and predictions of a very bumpy summer. Especially with rising oil giving the Fed the justification to raise rates by 50 points which will IMO send the S&P 500
Into its next nose dive.

Looking at other opportunities like EasyJet which is at basement prices with fair chance of recovery play.

"People looking for the peak inflation narrative keep getting hit in the face every day as energy goes up," said Thomas Hayes, managing member at Great Hill Capital LLC in New York.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points at each of its June and July meetings, with a similar move also likely in September, in an effort to combat inflation.“

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/futures-slip-tech-driven-rally-loses-steam-2022-06-08/

Telegraph:
Windfall tax within days as Boris Johnson tries to move on from partygate
Prime Minister set to announce help for millions of families struggling with the cost of living crisis, as Sue Gray report imminent

The Treasury is finalising plans for a windfall tax on energy firms, which will be used to fund new support for those most struggling with the cost of living crunch.

Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, has concluded that a one-off windfall tax on oil and gas companies is justified, given that some have seen their profits double as prices soar.

The tax could be directly linked to the amount of investment each company delivers.