Member Info for DONVANVLIET1

Aus ... I don't need further confirmation that you are squarely in the "we're all doomed" Armageddon camp. I already know that. The entire board knows that. Unlike you I much more relaxed about our long term prospects. Yes, it will be bumpy in the short term, but eventually, underpinned by creative solutions, we will reach calmer waters. This ship will not disppear down a plughole. You need to chill a little more. God knows what this is doing to your BP.

I'm not sure whether I should laugh or cry at some of the comments that have been posted in the past 24 hours. At one extreme you have Aus and Toff who sit squarely in the “we’re all doomed” Armageddon camp and the likes of Fleccy and Emmjane who are unfailingly optimistic about the country’s prospects post a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

I, however, belong to a group that states unequivocally that the real world is not black and white. It is made up of a continuum of greys. I speak as someone who voted to Remain, but is quite comfortable at the prospect of leaving with a ‘no deal’. I have no doubt there will be a short term shock to the country’s economic wellbeing (on top of that already induced by Covid). And equally I have no doubt that there will be short to medium term disruption at the ports, as well as some shortages of essentials. But none of this will last.

The business communities on both sides of the channel will simply not allow this situation to persist, regardless of governmental dictats on both sides of the water. Commerce and mankind’s ingenuity always finds a way of winning through in the end. And a no deal Brexit will truly allow the UK government to maximise opportunities that could never have been envisaged within the EU.

And that is what troubles the EU the most…the fact that the UK will be able to develop competitive advantages that they simply will not be able to compete with, because of their slow moving, cumbersome, consensus (lowest common denominator) politics. Talk of the UK becoming a new Singapore (a revitalised financial powerhouse on steroids), or a new tax haven, are not unrealistic prospects once we are released from EU shackles. There are no limits to mankind’s ingenuity and entrepreneurial spirit and unlike some others on this board I do not see the UK sinking without trace post Brexit. Yes, there will be short term pain, and, yes, there will be Winners and Losers (there always are) but, I have little doubt, there will be long term gain.

Ofcom promised BT ‘double digit’ returns on fibre rollout
Oliver Shah
Sunday December 06 2020, 12.01am, The Sunday Times

The telecoms regulator is understood to have assured BT several times that it would be able to make a double-digit rate of return on its £12bn investment to roll out full fibre-optic broadband.

Last year, when Dame Sharon White was chief executive, Ofcom is understood to have indicated that BT could expect to earn a return similar to the rate it generated on its previous installation of less speedy broadband based on the old copper network, when it made 15% over 10 years. The assurance is understood to have been repeated by interim Ofcom chief executive Jonathan Oxley in February this year.

The promises encouraged BT’s board to cut its dividend and announce that it would roll out super-fast broadband to 20 million premises via its Openreach subsidiary by the late 2020s. Currently, just 14% of properties have access.

BT has said it needs to make an overall return of 10%-12% over 20 years for the project to be viable. Talks with Ofcom are nearing a crunch point. The watchdog is due to give its verdict by April.

Last week, Dame Melanie Dawes, Ofcom’s new chief executive, said it would not enforce price controls on BT for full-fibre broadband for 11 years, sparking anger from customers such as TalkTalk. But BT boss Philip Jansen said the FTSE 100 giant needed a deal spanning 20 years. He said: “I want to build like fury ... but currently, I may not be able to do that.”

BT’s shares have fallen by 31% this year to 134.9p, valuing it at £13.4bn.

Broadband pledge rings true for BT investors
Tom Howard
Friday December 04 2020, 12.01am, The Times

BT share hit their highest price in nine months as investors dialled in on the back of supportive comments from the new chief executive of Ofcom.

The telecoms group has pledged to invest £12 billion to bring full-fibre broadband to 20 million homes and businesses before this decade is out. That investment, however, is contingent on Ofcom, the telecoms regulator, allowing it to make enough of a return for it to be worth its while.
A final decision on the regulations that will govern how much money BT can make from its broadband upgrades is not due until March but the early indications seem to be good.
In her first proper speech as the Ofcom chief, Melanie Dawes said that broadband builders would “need a fair margin to work with” and recognised that “there must be a compelling investment case”. She also suggested there would be no price controls on full-fibre optic services “until 2031”.
BT described her comments as “very encouraging” although it noted that what is included in March’s final report will be of greater importance.

Maurice Patrick, an analyst at Barclays, said Ms Dawes’s speech should provide BT and its shareholders “with some confidence that BT will make a solid return on its investment”. BT shares, which have steadily declined in recent years, rallied 8p, or 6.4 per cent, to 134½p, their highest since early March.

Isn't the upward movement, in part, due to the government's proposal to amend the underlying calculation of the RPI, which will effectively reduce the inflation rate by at least 1% pa? The ramifications for BT and its pension fund will be hugely positive in the long run.

Eminently sensible approach. Cannot wait to get the jab/s so that I can resume travelling.

Velo..."I have no belief that over 130's is possible today. Period. Full stop."
Do you now?

Velo, I appreciate your sterling efforts in trying to ascertain where the SP might be in a week's time. You are anticipating some kind of reversal in your worst case scenario. Maybe my thought processes are simply being driven by a desire to see the SP continue its current northerly trajectory (a view, no doubt, shared by many on this board). My instincts (not charts) tell me that this time things are different. As I have already pointed out in an earlier posting I cannot recall a single instance when the SP has risen consecutively over a 5 day period in the past 5 years. You could quite rightly point out that my reasoning is extremely short term in nature. However, I think we are beginning to see a sea change in sentiment and the positive momentum has only just started to build. Of course macro market conditions may go into reverse next week, as the euphoria over a potential vaccine and Biden’s election win begins to lose its potency, and take BT’s SP down with it. Nevertheless my personal feeling is that by close of play next Friday the SP will be higher than it is today. By how much, who knows? And if it does close lower than today’s closing price then I will readily hold my hands up and say I was wrong. After it’s all a guessing game. Fun, n'est pas?

Would I be right in saying that this is a first over the past 5 years? I cannot recall any other week over the 5 year period when it has risen day on day, until now. Correct me if I am wrong.

Another rise today will convince me that this share has, at long last, started the long trek back up. Let's see.

A small rise, maybe, but I wasn't expecting that. Any reasons for the increase aside from news of the vaccine?

I see Berenberg now has us down as a buy with the target price being raised from 140 to 155p.

Possibly just a coincidence, but since the threat of a strike was announced the SP has risen. Could it be that the City is now starting to believe that BT's BOD is taking some hard and potentially unpalatable decisions about streamlining the group?

"I seem to remember that Corona Virus isn't the same as Flu and the various Covid mutations share the same characteristics targeted by the Vaccines. From what i've read, the Vaccines should target all the current strains of Covid." That's perfectly correct Fleccy, but we are not there yet and as I have already stated the real problem will rest with those who elect not to have the jab, aside from any unforeseen side effects which only surface when mass roll outs are implemented. Believe you me I want rid of this pestilence as much as you, but I would caution you against thinking that there will be a quick and easy fix.

Fleccy "I do wonder if these current market drops are a last gasp shakeout of the weak. Presidential election, Brexit and Covid will be out of the way soon." I wish I could share your optimism about Covid, Fleccy. Having studied the history of pandemics (long before the current one took hold) I have always argued that this one would take at least 3 years to work its way out of the system, with at least three significant waves. Friends of mine in the medical profession have identified at least 7 different strains of Covid (and that is at the moment), so I wouldn't bet your house on a vaccine solving all of the world's problems. I would love to be wrong, but with so many conspiracy theorists out there, you can bet your bottom dollar that at least 20% of the population will not have the jab when it becomes available. And, of course, this will only serve to ensure that the disease is with us for longer. To reiterate I would love to be wrong, but history tells me that I won't be.

Ah, the good old days.

Fleccy - The words "stick", "poke" and "hornet's nest" spring to mind.

Aus "Fleccy you’re an idiot for misquoting me. You are a disgrace".
Is there really any need for such an aggressive tone? Surely something along the lines of "Fleccy you are mistaken in thinking that...." Moderating your language would not go amiss.

Yes, I know the overall market is down, dragging poor old BT with it. But the salt in the wound is that OFCOM, with nothing better to do, is sinking its teeth into BT, yet again, this time over Universal Service Obligation. Yet another tiresome, self-serving probe.

Early doors, Fleccy. Let's see how things pan out over the next week.