Member Info for dohers316

I wonder why the share price is falling, any idea anyone? There is nothing new that came out in the full year results that was bad apart from maybe anoh so seems strange. Also anyone have any idea on how fast or by how much we will see a reduction on the tax burden of sepnu?

FT- Nigeria’s Seplat moves in to fill gap as foreign oil companies retreat

Seplat senior management said the plan was to more than double output from about 50,000 barrels a day to roughly 120,000 bpd over the six-month period.

“The assets have had very minimal investments until now,” Seplat’s chief financial officer Eleanor Adaralegbe told the Financial Times in an interview. “We expect that once we come in there will be an opportunity to grow that much further.”

Everything is looking great, stock should easily double probably triple over the year as long as the oil price holds up, it's looking like we'll end 2025 producing bare minimum 150k barrels a day oil and 250mmscfd gas.

We're in the money boys.

what i've heard so far:

-4bln barrels reserves (gross) according to Wood Mackenzie 1.5bln of that liquids

-Seplat believe up to potentially 14tscf (gross)!! of gas in the asset

-large gas developments in the future possibly including lng/flng

-much potential for quick uplift in both oil and gas production, 100s of idle wells that can be brought online quickly and cheaply

-MPNU tax rates have been high due to lack of investment, believe tax rates for mpnu will be at seplat's level once investment begins next year (seplat and mpnu are currently on the same fiscal framework).

-believe seplat conversion to PIA will happen in 2025 which will lower tax rates

-aim is to also transfer MPNU to the PIA possibly next year if possible.

overall very excited, i've topped up my position.

I'm really struggling to understand this tax situation because seplat is still under the same fiscal regime as mpnu (they haven't converted yet to PIA), seplat is producing half as much but is making 5x mpnu's free cashflow in 2024. Any ideas on how this is the case?

Panic has set it everyone is running for the exits, the conference call on thursday will either set the stage for a massive rally or reinforce the negative sentiment.

There is nothing in that tweet that indicates it's anywhere near finished. My guess is it won't be completed this year.

My forecast is seplat receives 150m plus deposit back, net profit 2025 is $700m round about. Not sure how you get $425m net profit on 75k liquids production in 2025 (not even including gas which i'm not bothering to count) when Net cash inflows from operating activities last year was $445m on 28k production. People are massively underestimating the profitability of the mpnu assets because of that incompetently written capital access report.

They're only getting 30%, that's what the delay was about. They had to carve 10% off to corrupt insiders in order to get the go ahead, looking and business headlines as an indication of government sentiment or thoughts is really not useful in the nigerian context. The political class in nigeria are fully corrupt and only care about themselves.

My guess is it will initially settle in the mid to low 200s shortly after completion and should be knocking 300p by the end of the year or early to mid q1 2025.

I haven't sold a single share, seplat to be debt free by the end of this year, I forecast zero debt associated with the mpnu acquisition, and be producing over 100k barrels of oil by sometime next year. $700mln-$1bln in free cash next year is my estimate depending on how fast they can raise production, I wouldn't even consider selling below 350p.

The rumours about seplat getting 30% instead of 40% of the asset have been there for over a year, it's more likely than not that'll be the outcome. I've heard the rumours along the way and this deal could have gotten done a long time ago but the CEO and old chairman almost messed everything up by originally rejecting the compromise hence all the cases against the ceo and why the old chairman was forced to resign, only for them to backtrack apologise and accept. The deal is done anyway, exxon have already moved out of their offices in lagos and seplat have operational control of the company I hear.

Just a reminder that this asset was producing over 200k barrels a day (with plans for further expansion) before politics and policy uncertainty led to exxon stopping further investment and letting it wind down to where we are today. This is just the beginning.

Mission pretty much accomplished, just need nuprc and the president's signature and we are there.

"I get $1.7b already in the lockbox since Jan2021"

That's closer to the number I have, those saying $800m I think are quoting the "capital access" research firm who it looks like didn't account for depreciation, amortization and impairment; they had mpnu doing $387m in free cashflow on $4.5 billion in revenue in 2022 which makes no sense whatsoever.

I heard rumours that it could have gotten done early last year but management screwed up and refused a compromise deal that was offered which just so happens to be on the same the terms that rumours say they've now accepted. The deal is that seplat will obtain 75% instead of 100% of mpnu and nnpc will get the other 25%, we'll see if this is true.

Https://punchng.com/tinubu-committed-to-conclusion-of-seplat-exxonmobil-deal-lokpobiri/

Seems to be a common theme with seplat giving incredibly unrealistic timelines for when projects will be finished, they did this with the aep pipeline as well which was constantly delayed and came in 2 years behind schedule. The nnpc urging contractors to finish by december means if we're lucky it'll be completed q2 next year, there's zero chance they complete it by the end of the year. Then there is months more for commissioning, teething problems etc. I foresee little to no revenue from anoh for all of 2024, this is a 2025 story.

Doesn't look close to being finished, was supposed to be finished by end of q3, we're probably looking at q2/q3 2024 is my guess.

Any news from the inside on mpnu, doesn't seem to be much noise regarding it.

they are covering their **** backtracking and groveling because the person who owns oando is the current presidents nephew. the nnpc has no consistent policy around acquisitions and seplat is in a totally different situation as they're not linked to any powerful insiders as far as i know.