Member Info for dohers316

Just to add on to this, there are a bunch assets for sale atm in nigeria namely OMLs 49, 50, 51, 55, 65, 86/88, 100, 118 (Agbara), 140, and 64/66 as well as others. I asked during the last call if seplat were in the market for any assets and Roger gave a sheepish "can't comment on that but we're always looking to grow" answer. As well as that NNPC released their gas masterplan earlier in the year and it looks like nat gas prices are going to be deregulated next year after the presidential election probably. If we're not producing over 200k boepd by end of next year with gas prices at least partially deregulated i'd be surprised.

HSBC RAISES AVERAGE 2026 BRENT PRICE FORECAST TO $80/BBL

This figure will rise as the conflict continues.

The NNPC released a gas master plan for 2026-2030, it looks like natural gas prices are going to be deregulated and move to a willing buyer willing seller framework, probably in 2027. I asked ai and it said natural gas prices should/could double, big years ahead for seplat, after years under the terrible buhari government things are really looking up Nigeria and seplat.

I find it odd because Seplat stated it was talking to the government to sell back 10% of its 40% stake in the offshore assets, now it looks like the NNPC is looking to sell 35% of its 60% stake, strange.

Just came across this on africa intelligence, make of it what you will.

President Tinubu approves Nigerian National Petroleum Co blocks sale

The head of the national oil company hopes to offer some of his stakes in blocks for sale in the coming weeks. After obtaining presidential approval, he has enlisted a bank to structure the transaction.

Published on 17/12/2025 at 05:40 GMT Reading time 2 minutes

Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has given his approval. Bashir Bayo Ojulari, head of the Nigerian National Petroleum Co (NNPC), the national oil company, now hopes to put some of its oil blocks up for sale as early as the first quarter of 2026. He plans to sell 35% of NNPC's stakes in the three oil joint ventures recently sold by the majors.

The national company intends to divest part of the 60% stake it holds jointly in the onshore blocks OML 60, 61, 62 and 63 with the junior oil company Oando, owned by Adewale Tinubu, aka Wale Tinubu, the Nigerian president's nephew. In August 2024, Oando acquired the 20% stake from the Italian major ENI for $783m. Ojulari also intends to offer for sale his shares in the onshore blocks shared with the local company Seplat, headed by the British businessman Roger Brown. The NNPC owns 60% of OMLs 67, 68, 70 and 104.

Founded by former Chappal Energies chairman Austin Avuru, Seplat acquired these permits from ExxonMobil for $1.28bn at the end of 2024. Finally, the Nigerian state-owned company will offer for sale 35% of its 55% stake in the former Shell Petroleum Development Co of Nigeria (SPDC) joint venture, recently renamed Renaissance Africa Energy Co (RAEC).

We're going to be in a net cash position in a few quarters, hopefully they can review their dividend payout ratio when that happens because i'm not sure what the point would be of holding a bunch of cash on the balance sheet unless they're thinking about further acquisitions which isn't something they've indicated.

The dividend issue is the only issue I had, seplat is by far my largest position now and have been tempted to trim for a while but will probably hold off for now. Good luck everyone.

The only thing i’m confused about is the dividend outlook till 2030, they have forecast 1 billion in cumulative dividends 2026-2030 being 40-50% of free cashflow but that seems low. free cashflow h1 2025 was $390m, annualise that and you’d be looking at $350m in dividends for this year alone. this is also without the increased production to come, PIA conversions, ANOH, increased capital allowances etc. I’d like to add it’s not capex as capex is only 600m a year, does anyone have any thoughts on this.

For me everything is as expected except three things; 1. the production growth is too low, don't know if they mixed up oil and boe 2. cffo outlook is also too low 3. the sale of a 10% stake in the JV, although if we get a better price than we paid it's not a big deal in the grand scheme of things. We should get better details on these aspects later on today, maybe they're just being conservative.

I think we need to wait for the presentation, seplat tend to be super conservative in their forecasts let's wait and get a fuller picture later on today.

I've been thinking about Seplat's hedging strategy and it's fairly stupid. Paying a hedge premium for the right but not the obligation to sell oil at $50 for next year is dumb, they could have locked in futures for next year's production above $65 dollars a barrel. There is a lot of bearish sentiment regarding 2026 oil prices and this year has been replete with opportunities to lock in higher prices, boggles the mind honestly. would have been better to lock in decent oil prices rather than roll the dice for a few extra dollars a barrel especially when we are banking on increased production anyway, $65 would have been fantastic.

Market cap will be over £2bln by the end of the year and over £3bln by the end of next year, the only firm I think would take a swing at it is Perenco as they have a lot of experience in africa and deep pockets. If they don't come then I think we're safe, I would rather no acquisition as I think this is a £10bln business in 5 or 6 years.

Really hope they hedged some future production, this is/was an opportunity to not even have to worry about future prices. They could have hedged their production at an average of $75 a barrel out to the end of 2026 if they're switched on.

I really hope Seplat are taking the opportunity to hedge some 2026 production at these levels. Roger if you're reading this.........

Exit rate production for the company is going to be 150-160k barrels a day, tax rates are coming down and production is just at the beginning of it's growth cycle. It's up to you but my forecast for sp end of 2026 is 500p, my forecast for dividends next year is 33c.

I had the stock at 250p by the end of the year looks like we may get there a little early.

You have to look at cash generated from operations not at profit.

"The programme to resume production from idle wells across the license commenced during the period. At period end, approximately 11 kboepd gross production capacity has been reinstated from the idle well restoration programme. This has been achieved from 10 idle wells, that could be accessed directly from certain existing platforms. The jack-up barge has now moved to well work activities and commenced well interventions after the period end. Combining both platform and well work barge activities, we are now targeting production restoration work on over 50 of the idle well inventory in 2025."

They were originally only targeting 10-15k barrels from idle well restoration for the full year, amazing!!!

Amazing set of results, over performance on nearly everything. It's been a bumpy road but i'm so glad I stuck by them, this is my largest position by far and i've been truly vindicated. Seplat alone should be doing circa 40k bpd in liquids by the end of the year and it's looking like we could see a further uplift in production from Sepnu, they're hitting an all fronts, big congratulations to management and all who held.

Seplat need to hit their targets this year; PIA converison for seplat, abiala, sibiri, sapele, tax shield for sepnu and the stock will triple from here. I'm in long term so not overly concerned about daily swings but was just wondering what the cause was, seems energy stocks globally are taking a hammering.