RE: Results2 Jun 2023 08:24
I speak as a sizeable (six figure) holder here, but the results and outlook are a major disappointment. This is no longer a high growth business. The comparisons made to ELF market cap have no meaning as you cannot compare a London AIM listed business to a US listed one. The better comparison was to Warpaint - but these results make it clear that they are a MUCH better business.
Let's do the analysis:
REVB Sales Growth EBITDA EBITDA Margin Assumptions
FY22A 184.6 35% (0.8) - [Actuals]
FY23O 188.3 2% (0.1) - Low single digit growth, slight loss
FY24O 203.4 8% 8.0 4% High single digit growth, high single digit EBITDA
W7L Sales Growth EBITDA EBITDA Margin Assumptions
FY21A 50.0 24% 7.7 15% [Actuals]
FY22A 64.1 28% 11.9 19% [Actuals]
FY23O 89.7 40% 16.7 20% Q1 growth rate ontinues, margin improvements
For the current year outlook, Warpaint has 5x the growth rate of REVB and 5x the EBITDA margin. It is a far better and morei investible business by the two key qualifications.
Warpaints market cap is £186m, its valued over 10x forward EBITDA as a high growth business.
REVB forward EBITDA is circa £8m ("high single digits") and it would not achieve a 10x forward EBITDA high growth business multiple with single digit sales growth rates. This makes, unfortunately, the current market cap look about right... there will likely be no multi baggers here I'm afraid.