Member Info for djm101

After that performance from gold and US mining stocks, we should see at least 4-5% rise from GGP at Aus open. Anything significantly less and I'm going with Macquarie 2.0. Latter should be unlikley with us well established on ASX compared to mid 25.

And now we wait.

Viva Barrenjoey.

Well, there we go. You picks your analyst, you takes your chances.

OR, you do your own research, understand the numbers, the history, the MD and board, the participants, the truthful, knowledgable LSE board contributors (like Element, bamps, Paddy, Dipp, and others), and then ignore the noise and hidden agendas. Bam.

@MattyBoy1965 Of course 'massive position' was also sarcasm.

Yes, let's see if they build a short position now, to back their expert analysis. Just like Macquarie did.

An aside, it's not that the 'Efficient Market Hypothesis' is entirely wrong, but all the bs that comes with many participants

Well, they already have a massive position and wouldn't be wanting to add to it. So we can totally trust their in-depth and impressive analysis.

They're just an honest bunch seeking truth before profit.

Yes, Macquarie 2.0.

Company accounts and reports

Morningstar (will be out of date)

Broker notes if time is limited

If only LSE had an edit function. Ignore the 14.42 number correction. The 14.36 poat was correct

@speedymeadie Sorry, typo, the 32m oz (not 24m oz). Was that in past day or two alone ? If so, that is proper fireworks

@speedymeadie Was that a 32m oz withdrawal on Friday ? Source please ? (I ask as the official numbers indicate a 24m oz decline in total silver inventories in the fortnight to late last week....unclear if that included Friday.....it definitely didn't include this weekend)

US: Comex registered silver inventory 114m oz late Thursday/Fri (total 418m oz), declining at 12m oz per week in Jan. March deliveries likely to be at least 100m oz for the month, not zero in Feb. Not hard to spot the gap

London: high lease rates (8%), backwardation, other stressors

Shanghai: physical silver at 12% premium to London/Comex spot at time of Shanghai close

Can't see what 'evreyday' reason would cause a fall in silver price, other than manufacturers deciding to pause buying, gold price collapse (both unlikely), market crisis (possible, but can't see a sustained pm fall in the event of a crisis)

It's all looking rather tight. Good for miners.

Only way US gets 'out' of its debt problem is 1970s-style inflation.

1971 gold $35

1975 peak $200 (5.7x increase), then drop to $100 after rate hikes

1980 peak $850 (8.5x increase from 1975, or 24x increase from 1971)

Only way it was stopped was through massive rate increases (9% to 18% plus in 1980 - when US national debt about 25% of GDP and government smaller, population younger than now, China not a player)

IF were to follow the 1970s multiples on gold, using 2019 $1200 as a 'base'

next peak $6800 (5.7x), perhaps $8000 (a nice round number of often quoted)

50% pull back to perhaps $3400 (-$4000)

then 8.5x increase to $27000 (-$34000)

No guarantee it stops there, as China likes gold, US debt now dwarfs 1980, and demographics have changed.

Sounds impossible ?

Pretty sure $850 gold seemed impossible in 1975.

Each $4000 in gold price adds $1tn to a US Treasury balance sheet (in a revaluation scenario). $8.5tn (8.5 x $4000) would make a 'dent'.

Sounds crazy, yes ? So were the 1970s.

I would not rule it out. But perhaps a CBDC is more likely. Who knows.

Physical closed week in Shanghai at $111.50.

Comex and London still fiddling around $100. If they crash it they'll just widen the premium, which is unlikely.

Anyone know of any history of a premium greater than 12% ? @bankboy ?

"If investing is entertaining, if you're having fun, you're probably not making any money. Good investing is boring".

Correction:

Jane Street short 0.49% as at 20 Jan.

Interesting that they stopped at that point exactly yesterday. Perhaps didn't BUY further today, hence a less spectacular SP day....

Jane Street short 0.49% as at 20 Jan.

Interesting that they stopped at that point exactly yesterday. Perhaps didn't sell further today, hence a less spectacular SP day....

I too was upset by the AIM share price shenanigans in the summer, was almost certain it was manipulation and that on most days it was undervalued relative to ASX. But already having a 'healthy' GGP allocation, couldn't bring myself to add. Same applies now.

Shorts probably trying to close. They will move the price to suit themselves when they can if they can. Not difficult on AIM.

Just see it as a buying opportunity in the UK :-) One doesn't need to do a personal 'mark to market' on an existing holding, unless heavily leveraged (which I suspect few here are).

On the POG, Stephen Miran wrote a comprehensive article 15 months ago on a strategy to weaken the dollar without losing reserve currency status, admitting to some challenges to achieving those somewhat contradictory objectives. It has been unfolding as the administration have planned, and I doubt that the 10% weakening thus far is enough. I expect they would prefer a further 10-15% weakening of the dollar, but global reserve currency preservation has probably been a bigger challenge than anticipated.

(Article was entitled A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System - it's not the easiest read, but is the Trump administration playback....most other news is theatre)

The trend is your friend

Victor, you either (a) haven't been paying attention in 2025 or (b) are deliberately trying to deramp. Back in the green bin for you

Extremely pleased to see you posting Bamps. I hope this means that the crass, classless, clueless bullies aren't going to win. I think we can all see from the number of recommendations for each post exactly how much the vast majority support you - and just how little value is attributed to those who detract from the board.

After having to wade through so much drivel yesterday, in search of pearls from those who do add value, I was seriously questioning the wisdom of spending time filtering so much dross.

However,

1) there are still a few who add enormous value,

2) who cannot follow the detail at a time like this, and

3) Bamps is back (hopefully)

Incidentally, i too considered top slicing this week, but with gold and silver back into price discovery territory, at what price GGP would I add back later ? And would i really want to be underweight if some great drill results drop around quarterly results time ?

The didvidend debate is 'interesting', and usually makes it clear who has some finance understanding and who does not.

Those who know, know they know, and those who don't, don't.

Does Greatland have a Telegram group ?