Member Info for Normi

Firstly, congrats Matty!

Secondly, an interesting thread... My current plan is to consider selling only if the gold price breaks below its 200DMA significantly. I'm trying to hold on for dear life!

Thanks both! That's what I looked at previously and I must have somehow missed the big, yellow 'Register' button! What an idiot...

Hi all,

Happy Sunday. I hope everyone is having a good Easter.

I've seen the information for the town hall, but nothing about how to register for it. Does anyone have a link?

I think (hopefully) we can all work out that if a share price goes from £3.50 to £7.00, that’s a 100% increase!

However, the same can be said for percentages. A 70% increase is a 100% increase (i.e. double) compared to a 35% increase. The confusion arises because many people just do 70% - 35% = 35% increase, but that’s not the case as that is the percentage point increase, not the percentage increase. To work out the percentage increase between 70% and 35% you have to do (70/35x100)-100=100%. Hopefully unnecessary for my simple example here, but useful to know on more complicated movements.

Another example looking at the GGP share price in recent quarters:

Price 1/1/26 - £5.21

Price 1/10/25 - £3.55

Price 1/7/25 - £3.28

The percentage increase for calendar year 2025 Q3 is (£3.55/£3.28x100)-100 = 8.23%. The percentage increase for calendar year 2025 Q4 is (£5.21/£3.55x100)-100 = 46.76%.

Now, the percentage point increase from Q4 compared to Q3 is simply 46.76%-8.23% = 38.53 percentage points. But as we can see from the numbers there, 47% is a massive increase compared to 8%. To work out the percentage increase it’s (46.76/8.23x100)-100 = 468.16% (i.e. it’s a nearly 6 times increase, not just a 38.53% increase).

Hi gitup,

As this is for the current year, I've used 0%. I have a field for discount rate for future years, which is currently at 10%, but I can change this and the figures update automatically. That wasn't what I was talking about in my post though.

I'm planning to look in more detail and further into the future when we get detailed planning for Hav and Telfer integration.

It’s raining (again), so I’ve been playing around with my NPV spreadsheet. Previously, I’d just put in estimates for FY26 based on midpoint company guidance and the POG at the time. Then, my NPV was showing a profit before tax of AU$820m.

Of course, more recently we’ve heard from the company that we can expect results to be ‘tending towards upper end for production and lower end for AISC’, so I’ve adjusted for this. I’ve also updated this for the actual quarter results (Sep and Dec) we’ve received together with future quarters being based on a more current gold price of AU$7,135.

As a result of the above changes, the Telfer FY26 profit before tax figure is now estimated at about AU$1.38b.

Based on the actual figures so far, our profits are increasing at a rate of about 16% per quarter. That’s per quarter! With compounding, that means so far, our profits are roughly doubling year on year. At this rate, £100 now will be £210 in five quarters time… Now I know that firstly operationally we have performed very well and hopefully that can continue, but we’ve also had some fair macro tailwinds with the POG movement. However, like many others, I’m hopeful that can continue not only for the remainder of this financial year, but also long into the next one (and possibly beyond).

This quarter’s gold price is currently significantly higher than the reported AU$6,301 in the most-recent quarterly production report, and that’s with a significant setback after a high was reached. The bull continues.

I look forward to doing this exercise again in about six months. Any guesses where the numbers will go…?!

1/1/25 – opening SP was 5.2p (£1.04 post-consolidation)

1/1/25 – opening PoG was $2,624 per oz.

It’s been interesting to zoom out on the charts and realise how far we’ve come. I first invested in (I think) about September 2024 around the time of the deal announcement. However, as my confidence in the company grew and I could see the progress it was making I bought all the way up to the summer of last year, investing more capital than first planned!

This time last year, I had a ‘blue sky’ target of £1, or £20 equivalent. I honestly think (if the gold macro bull run continues) that this is now almost likely rather than blue sky. For me, and I’m sure many others who have held as long or longer, the risk is now massively reduced compared to when first invested.

Progress has been much quicker that I thought possible on initial investment, and I continue to ‘move the goalposts’ regarding my targets. Of course, this has been somewhat helped by PoG, but it’s easy to forget what massive strides the company has made in such a short time. Despite the share price increase, I consider the risk now to be lower than when I first invested, which doesn’t make sense until your look at the broad, holistic view.

I’m looking forward to whatever 2026 has in store for us, and hopefully see some of you in the Blue Bell Inn shortly.

I’ll be revising my NPV numbers in due course (upwards again!)…

31/12/25 – closing SP was £5.21 (26p pre-consolidation - +401%)

31/12/25 – closing PoG was $4,340 per oz. (+65%)

1/1 – opening SP was £5.21 (26p pre-consolidation)

1/1 – opening PoG was $4,340 per oz.

A lot going on currently! It was all going swimmingly up until about the 28th, wasn’t it?! It feels like we are in a period of quick macro change, and I don’t know exactly what that means any more than anyone else does. I’m trying to mentally prepare myself to be ready for anything. But trying to think with a clear head, all the micro and macro factors are still there, and hopefully we just need to patience to see it to fruition. If we were undervalued at £7, then we are even more undervalued at £6, then £5s if they happen etc.

Gold could drop another $500 and it’d still be higher than 1 January… Weird to think, but here we are, making record profits and cash. It’ll be very interesting to see what February (and then March) has in store for us!

2025 review still to come, and I’ll be revising my NPV numbers (upwards again!)…

31/1 – closing SP was £6.30 (31.5p pre-consolidation) (+21% - a great month (still) and not forgetting during the month we were clearly over £7 for a time!)

31/1 – closing PoG was $4,890 per oz. (+12%)

Great tie choice by Peter! 😉

1/12 – opening SP was £3.80 (19p pre-consolidation)

1/12 – opening PoG was $4,238 per oz.

Last month I mentioned GDX inclusion, but we didn’t quite make it then, so it’s another catalyst in the coming quarter.

Excellent SP performance following the TH meeting (which was great). The macro continues to support, although PoG seems sticky around $4,600 at the moment.

2025 review to come, and I’ll be revising my NPV numbers (upwards again!)…

31/12 – closing SP was £5.21 (26p pre-consolidation) (+37% - a great month and strange to think the just 16 days into January, we’re already £1+ higher than this!)

31/12 – closing PoG was $4,340 per oz. (+2%)

This dividend debate that occurs every now and then is always interesting to me. I think people fall into two camps: the 'I want growth' camp, and the 'I want dividends' camp.

But I want both! Just look at Northern Star...!

GGP as we've seen is generating cash at a fantastic rate currently, and hopefully that can continue or even better as we move through 2026 and into 2027. I'm not sure we'll actually receive dividends, but I wouldn't be surprised if we hear what company intentions are regarding dividend policies in the next 12-18 months.

Further to the message below in this thread, I forgot I had also made a few notes on my phone after the presentation itself:

"I'd rather drill this than anything else on Earth"

"I've reached out to a couple of governments [re O'Callaghan's]"

Just found the notes I took from the Town Hall meeting (nothing extensive or ground-breaking here!), and thought it would be interesting to share and reflect…

“Telfer pays for Havieron”

“WDU is an exceptional opportunity”

“There is no need to mind the gap!”

“We don’t think we need it [Minyari], because we’re confident about what we have.”

I won’t mention where Shaun mentioned the Ashes…

At the drinks after, there were a few of us in circle listening to Shaun, I took off my name badge and was just about to go, and then Shaun referred to me by name because he remembered, it’s those little things, isn’t it? We’re in good hands, I feel.

It was interesting to chat to Rotherby at the Town Hall and talk about the thread on GGP Chat:

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=1197

It’s called ‘let’s compare with “equals”’ and is largely around the comparison of GGP with the NST of old. What I find interesting is that the NSR years of 2010 to 2020 were largely in a gold bear market with the peak arriving in late 2011. They had a decent start, but don’t forget the gold price was below $1,100 at times in 2016. What would have been the NSR performance in different circumstances? Or, perhaps more importantly, what will GGP’s performance be in (hopefully) different circumstances…?!

Hi everyone, I hope you’re all managing to enjoy the festivities and some downtime.

I’m slightly behind with this as I’ve been slightly unwell over Christmas. I’d just like to wish everyone all the best for the holidays and into next year. Many thanks to those that make significant contributions to this board and the community, they know who they are.

This is a great time to reflect on what a fantastic year this has been. My target was 20p, and we’re already over that hopefully now!

@desjwhite – referring to your 12/12/25 post at 17:36. No worries about the Guinness affecting your memory…! Hope you’ve had a few over the festive period!

It was I that you were chatting with, and TallChap on the other side, I believe.

1/11 – opening SP was £3.675 (18.375p pre-consolidation)

1/11 – opening PoG was $3,833 per oz.

12/11 – I’m a bit late here, but many thanks to Bamps and Rotherby for organising the Bristol meet. It was great to get an up-to-date overview of all things geological.

13/11 – AGM I loved a few quotes that came out of this: “We expect to release the Havieron FS shortly, which will highlight just how much of a world-class asset that is.” And “The grades coming out of the WDU are higher than Havieron”.

Of course, we have since had updates on both, and it seems that the SP is now slowly trending higher. I’m happy with that. I think the next major catalyst could be GDX inclusion later this month, watch this space…

Highlight of the month – The carvery at the Henbury Arms!

See you at the Town Hall (I’ll aim to be at The Phoenix by 4pm)! 😊

30/11 – closing SP was £3.80 (19p pre-consolidation) (+3.4%)

30/11 – closing PoG was $4,238 per oz. (+10.6% - Q2 is looking nice…!)

1/10 – opening SP was £3.55 (17.75p pre-consolidation)

1/10 – opening PoG was $3,833 per oz.

It feels like gold is consolidating again, no problem with me as long as the next move is another swing upward, no reason why it shouldn’t be. I’d expect a shorter period of consolidation compared to what we saw in the $2,800-3,000 range from April to August.

The quarterlies were great with improved recoveries and better AISC that at least I was expecting. Hopefully that can continue, but it won’t need to match that every quarter to still meet/beat guidance.

Highlight of the month – Quarterly results and Shaun’s upbeat interviews.

Looking forward to seeing others in Bristol next week! 😊

31/10 – closing SP was £3.675 (18.375p pre-consolidation) (+3.5% - not bad considering the turmoil in gold markets despite record high prices!)

31/10 – closing PoG was $3,833 per oz. (0% - manipulation much?! What are the chances?!)

Lee – just referring to your post on 5/11 at 09:04 largely regarding dividends. I’ll quote the bit I’ll refer to:

“THX.L are paying 2.67p annually on 90k ounces production, for the same percentage of Net profit they use to calculate dividends, we could pay 4p on La India being 1.5 times bigger production at 145k ounces, if Dupax reserves put through Runruno matches or exceeds La India production, we could see 8p dividends in total, 2/3 of today’s share price.”

Have you considered that THX has a significantly fewer shares in issue that MTL does? So their annualised dividend will not equate to our share price in the same way?

I believe MTL has 2.93b shares in issue, whereas THX have only 656 million. The ratio here is 4.5:1, so I think our ‘equivalent’ dividend would be 4p/4.5 = just under 1p?

I’ve had a bit of time this weekend, so I’ve been playing around with my NPV spreadsheet. I hadn’t looked at it or updated things since about June, so it felt like it was time…!

Under previous assumptions at the time, I was expecting about AU$750m gross profit from Telfer in FY26. Since then, I’ve update for the following:

- PoG was AU$5,150 and is now AU$5,885

- AISC was estimated at AU$2,500 and is now estimated at AU$2,600

- Production ounces was estimated at 320,000koz per annum at 80% recovery and now estimated at 285,000koz per annum at 80% recovery (80% just to be conservative)

As a result of the above changes, the Telfer FY26 gross profit figure is now estimated at about AU$820m.

That’s right, even after reducing the production guidance, and increasing the costs, we are STILL expecting more profit because of the increase in the gold price compared to three months ago.

Looking forward to further updating this as new information comes to light. I think the future beyond FY26 and FY27 are going to change drastically over the next few quarters.