Member Info for Diversified

Implied a second new client.

‘Planned addition of two material new gas demand hubs expected to deliver new revenue streams’.

I am sure this has been disclosed yet?

Hi SQ, while shorting is possible, there needs to be the available stock to short and many of the II’s are significantly under water.

It must be remembered that with £120/135m a year of free cashflow, this company will be re-rated using standard valuation metrics that are significantly higher than the current share price. To think that the fully diluted market cap at the current share price would be around £240m with the above free cash flow before new contracts and a swelled bank balance through the AIIM transaction is laughable.

Most importantly this company is very well insulated from oil price fluctuations.

Zeus - I can confirm a lot of those late trades last night were mine as I couldn’t buy anything in volume. I had to revert to 30k, 20k then 10k trades until they then wouldn’t even sell me £3k worth, then towards the last 5 minutes of trading they had stock available and I was able to buy in larger quantities. I think this is now evident due to the late reported sell from yesterday that popped up this morning.

As I said last night, the transaction will be competed no later then when the taxes are due as part of the ministerial consent (90 days). Very exciting times and the market hasn’t yet switched onto the potential here.

SQ320 - The concept of an orderly market has been taken into consideration within the admission document in 2017. A snippet below:

‘The new Ordinary Shares to be issued to the holders of the SSNs and the Second Bilateral Facility pursuant to the Capital Restructuring (please refer to the Transaction Overview in Part 2 of this document for further details) will be subject to lock-in provisions that will restrict transfers of such shares for a period of six months from their date of issuance without Savannah’s prior consent in order to ensure an orderly market in the Ordinary Shares.’

In addition to this we know of the potential of a share buy back scheme.

You cannot ignore the company assets and free cash flow, as well as material progress in Niger for much longer, and that why when the transaction has completed you will see a material re-rating of the stock which is 70% owned by the board and long term institutional shareholders.

I was busy buying towards the end of the day again today, and at times I struggled to buy as little as £3k at 23.3. They didn’t have the stock. Then all of a sudden they dropped the bid to 22.6 and stock was more readily available. It was quite apparent that they managed to get access to stock to sell from somewhere.

General market sentiment is not great and so to drop a share by 4% on 100k shares being sold, against all the buys today is crazy.

I have 100% confidence that the transaction will be completed by the 18th November, in line with the taxes that are due within 90 days of the ministerial consent and that news flow will come thick and fast.

I would not be surprised to see completion earlier and previous guidance in December that suggest that they could complete long form documentation within 6 weeks suggests that the final milestone is soon to be completed.

Patience is required and today marked a massive opportunity to buy stock at lower prices, one thing we can be sure of and that is the share price won’t be this side of 30p come completion of the transaction.

I honestly believe the newsflow will be relentless. AK said in the coming weeks, months and year we can expect significant news and the very next day the Frontier Oil milestone was completed. I believe the debt swap will arrive shortly after, even tomorrow.

I have bought another 160k shares today so hold close to 500k now. I am extremely confident in the outcome of this transaction and the excellent value the market is currently presenting us with.

Those mandatory statements in relation to liquidity are no different to last years interims due to the transaction not being completed.

A statement from AK would of been nice though.

Execution and signature of long-form documentation in relation to the Seven Energy Transaction with AIIM Investments, which will see a vehicle managed by African Infrastructure Investment Managers Limited acquire a 20% interest in each of Seven Uquo Gas Limited ("SUGL") and Accugas for consideration of US$54m, providing significant additional liquidity to the Enlarged Group on Transaction completion.

As a result of the pending 7E transaction, the last interims were accompanied by a number of additional RNS’s.

As I understand it, on completion of the long form documentation associated with the Frontier Oil swap (previously being subject to a 30 business day turnaround), the Accugas debt and AIIM transaction, the implementation document will set in motion the completion of the RTO.

An update or completion of any one of those key milestones will further de-risk the transaction and result in a respective increase in the stock price.

When I tried to contact IR last week I was told they were in a closed period due to the pending half year results so wouldn’t be able to discuss anything with me until next week.

What we can be sure of is that with all taxes due in relation to the Transaction within 90 days of the receipt of the approval letter conveying the Consent, by the 18th of November SAVP will want to have competed the transaction.

In September 2018, the Seven Energy update said:

‘ The Parties have agreed to negotiate in good faith to agree binding long-form documentation on the terms set out above and to use reasonable endeavours to execute such documentation within 30 business days.’

Now I don’t know if the implementation agreement superseded this but, bottom line is if this can be give as an indication of completion of the Frontier documentation then tomorrow marks the 30th business day since ministerial consent and a Tweet from a Nigerian citizen who had been in contact with Frontier Oil, now owned by Savannah Petroleum may not be wide or the mark. The tweet was only a couple of days ago.

‘As anticipated, the Consent is subject to the payment of all taxes due in relation to the Transaction within 90 days of the receipt of the approval letter conveying the Consent.’

Thus completion no later than the 18th November 19’. This makes the next 8 weeks extremely exciting and for what it is worth the brokers guidance of a 2 month completion drill remains on the cards.

With documentation for the Accugas debt restructuring and the Frontier Swap likely to be signed at different times and as such resulting in two separate RNS’s. In addition to likely guidance from the Interims, progress in Niger and a share buy back. This stream of newsflow will likely see the share price reach 50p on completion of the 7E deal imo. Positive sentiment is returning with a bang.

Has set sail.

Actually feels like a half price sake :-)

With low liquidity in Canada enabling them to shift the price up or down significantly on low volume, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility for a large institution to manipulate the price to fill a large order.

You would sell small amounts in Canada to drop the price in the UK to be able to fill larger orders at lower prices in the UK due to its higher liquidity.

Thing is, some fall for it.

Has just left for Ghana which would suggest that the Stena forth maybe close to finishing operations too. Can’t get live feed on Stena Forth.

RNS soon.

One of the best reports I have seen to pinpoint exactly how undervalued this stock is. I really don’t understand why this is still in the 20’s!

With the late reported trades it is clear to see that a large institution or private investor has offloaded over 1m shares today. We had a seller present on both Wednesday and Friday this week too which kept the breaks on the share price.

In my opinion, this seller who supplied the market makers with stock early on in the day has not since returned and the market makers have offloaded the stock onto new buyers at a profit.

Therefore, unless the seller is prepared to sell additional stock to the makers makers at a further additional discount, his job is done.

Canada has low liquidity, will see the share reaction from the highs in England and act accordingly.

‘Mark my words carefully’

Official announcement can’t be far away.

Imo.
Tullow and partners were keen to release news from data evaluated to date today to take advantage of sentiment, higher oil prices.

Further news is to follow, following additional evaluation which could increase the net pay.

Gill will add meet to the bone and the brokers are already increasing value to 210p +

Some are taking profit as they think news flow is to dry up when it’s only just started.

Given the further currently undisclosed prospects within the Jethro Complex, if these are upper tertiary then they have just been substantially derisked.

Regardless, our basin is full of oil.