Scancell founder says the company is ready to commercialise novel medicines to counteract cancer. Watch the video here.
Resolute is mentioned in this article about gold mining in West Africa:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-23/gold-s-rally-is-driving-a-rush-to-one-of-metal-s-final-frontiers
ShearClass, we're now below the IPO price. I've averaged down again today but now I'm over my allocation limit for this one. Hopefully, you're in a position to add more than me.
My average is 83 so we'll need a 40% rise for me to break even lol. Doesn't sound great but I feel this share is worth a lot more at these gold prices. The Gold price seems to have gone into a pennant around 1490, let's see how that goes.
Regardless, I think we just have to sit tight and wait 1-2 quarters till Resolute resolve their issues and ramp up the new mine. We can collect the dividend in the meantime.
Monk, do you know when's the ex-dividend date? I searched online but couldn't find anything.
Tiger, not just any oligarch, we're talking Kostyantyn Zhevago here. The guy is notorious.
He was running a multi-million dollar company at the age of 19. Not because of he's the Ukranian Mark Zuckerberg but because at uni he was mates with the son of the minister of transport Valeriy Cherep. He participated heavily in the privatisation of state enterprises (must have been saving from his pocket money in order to buy them, no avocado toast for the poor chap). He was aggressively taking over other firms and there were multiple court cases, and yes probably the fair Ukranian judges ruled in his favour. Apparently talking business with him can be dangerous for your health, Mikhail Poliakov from Luhanskoblenerho had a "hearth attack" and died while chatting with Zhevago. Luhanskoblenerho is now part of Zhevago's empire.
Zhevago has now problem swapping the pro-Russian party of Yanukovych with Timoshenko's. Now he's an independent MP.
What's interesting is that in 2005 he fell out with the establishment and there was talk about re-nationalising his empire and he was even living abroad. Obviously, there's a risk this could happen again. These people are not real businessmen, they are placed there by politicians in power who let them run the former state enterprises and make money as long as they keep voters employed and pay a percentage at the right bank accounts. However, if things go south his business could disappear overnight.
Hi Nickel_Investor,
From what I know about miners is that you don't use PE as a means of valuing them. That's used for "standard" companies (e.g. food producers, tech, insurance, etc.) even though it can be manipulated. As far as I know for miners you have to look at Cashflow. So your point that FRES has PE of 60 for me is no way a sign that it's overvalued. It simply doesn't mean anything.
Franky, I think that was a good decision on CEY. Not happy with the management there so I've sold and took a 18% loss. They have somehow managed to turn 1 bad piece of news into 2, potentially 3 hits on the share price. Bad communication, missing guidance, etc.
I own shares in Resolute even though they've also had some difficulties ramping up their new mine. But management seems capable and with higher integrity, they have several mines in different countries and the share price is cheap. So sticking with this one for now, even though share price performance has been pretty poor. We're close to their IPO price atm so a good entry point if anyone is interested. Obviously do your own due diligence, etc.
Another one that I hold and is very cheap atm IMO is Roxgold. I remember discussing it with BB on here. Their SP is basically where it was when gold was $1280 I think. Obviously not listed on the LSE so you'll need a broker that can deal on the TSX and might face some taxes depending on your circumstances.
Enough off topic though. Back to FRES, why do you think it's overvalued? Just looking at cash, profit isn't the best way to value a miner IMO.
I haven't done full NPV calculation and they have lots of mines so this will be quite a bit of work. Using FCF/EV won't work for valuation, as obviously the Free Cashflow is negative like last year. But looking at the history of their FCF over the last 10 years that could change quickly to the upside, especially with rising silver prices. That would make FCF/EV look great.
Another metric (not the best for producers tbh) is EV/moz which for FRES comes at 99 (only Measured and Indicated, excluding Inferred). For comparison, Pan American Silver comes at 109. I've just recalculated those. So we're quite cheap compared to other silver majors.
Even if there's no financial crisis most people seem to agree that there will be some kind of slowdown/recession. Let's not forget that the yield curve inverted, unemployment is at record high, etc. all leading indicators that things are going downhill from here.
That means iron ore and base metals will probably get hit. I also agree that copper is better long term, as the coming EV revolution, electrification and eco friendly policies all require massive amounts of copper. I read somewhere that copper will be the new oil. Personally I like Antofagasta.
Auson, actually the high amount of longs in my mind is quite bearish. That said I don't think we'll go below 1400. Holding the key support level of 1490 is important atm. We're at 1488 as I write. We shall see...
TL, nice one. That's a good average price. My BE is about the same.
I agree that this is a volatile share and it's good to trade it a little bit and of course it's not nice being underwater but at the end of the day this is a top miner that produces a commodity which should keep going higher due to fundamentals (money printing, negative interest rates, record amounts of debts). I don't know your investment horizon and the way you invest/trade but for me personally last Thursday, this Thursday, etc. don't really matter at the end of the day.
FRES is going through some difficulties but none of them seem too bad. The only big risk is that all their mines are in Mexico. That said if the new government there wanted to do something crazy they probably would've done it by now. I think this should be at least a double from here and probably in 6 to 12 months.
Full disclosure, I've sold most of my Centamin shares and bought a different miner, experiencing a mine ramp up issue. Took an 18% loss on CEY but not happy with the management here and that's hard to fix IMO. It's a shame because it's an excellent asset with a very low AISC.
I've kept a small position here and will keep an eye on the share price and this board, hopefully could re-enter when things look better. I'd require a larger margin of safety than last time though.
Good luck to all!
Nice one Monk, I've also topped up this morning. Sold most of my Centamin shares and averaged down here. Took an 18% loss on CEY but not happy with the management there and that's hard to fix. I feel Resolute's problems are much easier to fix. The main risk here is IMO the jurisdictions, but for Africa they are pretty good.
And yes, we're back at the IPO price but if you think about it gold back then was $1344. Are the problems really so bad so that we can discount the $150 extra in the gold price? Mining is hard. I've been through 3 mine ramp ups this year with Equinox Gold, Gold Resource Corporation and Victoria Gold and only Victoria has so far gone without a hick up. They are not at full production yet though so I expect something to go wrong there as well. I'm sure they will get Syama up and running even with a bit of a delay.
One last thought - only recovering the losses from the last few days should give us a 14% boost on today's price. So on the money I invested today I will hopefully get a 14% return in let's say 6 months (for the mine ramp up) even if gold goes nowhere. Personally, I'm happy with 14% per year, 14% in 6 months is an excellent return.
I've messed up here as well. I bought too many shares at around 92 even though I posted on here I won't do it. So I didn't follow my own plan and now I'm down almost 25%. Not too concerned long term, as I feel this is a short term hick-up but I should be buying a big tranche now. Instead I'm out of cash and thinking what shares I can sell so I can average down. Also I can't really average down too much because as I said earlier I bought too much earlier.
In case you're not invested though I feel this is an excellent entry point.
Hi Rebess, you're raising some excellent points. What's management' s motivation?
We'll, insiders own less than 1% of shares, si their interests are not really aligned with shareholders. Sure, the have some options but there could be other reasons as well. These guys in the City all drink their martinis together. I won't be surprised if one of the fund managers who is mates with a CEY boss said "I want to buy CEY, can you give me a lower price?!"
Last reason I could think of is that they perhaps have a buyout bonus like folks in Canada. So if someone wants to buy CEY then they will be getting a large bonus
I feel FRES is oversold. Unfortunately for me this is below my average now. My BE is at 665. A lot of negativity surrounding this one. Personally, I'd buy more if I could but I'm at full position as I said already.
Gnome, your son is a brave man. Three girlfriends?! I can barely handle one.
Joke aside, I think trading/investing for a living works but usually you need to have a big initial sum to start with. Otherwise you have to work hard and save a lot to create the capital you need in order to make investment worthwhile. Or you have to start at a very early age like Warren Buffet.
Problems at the 2nd largest silver mine in Mexico:
https://srsroccoreport.com/mexicos-second-largest-silver-mine-shuts-down-reopens-shuts-down-again/