Prospects…….13 May 2025 16:50
Oh how sentiments change in the space of a few weeks!!……..this half baked govt is creating a coal policy for the next administration to work with,the very fact these green cuckoo’s are working on such a policy is testament to the dire situation with energy in the country……I have a very strong disposition and I’ve been around long enough to ignore swing trading talk…….facts like….
Highlights and Outlook
· Bangladesh's new Government appears serious in addressing its lack of domestic coal production in the near term:
· Bangladesh is currently almost entirely reliant on imports of coal to fuel its growing number of power stations to meet burgeoning demand for energy - an issue compounded by a natural gas shortfall in country
· Bangladesh's level of coal imports surged 44% in 2023(1)
· The Company believes the outlook for moving the proposed Phulbari coal mine forward has greatly improved on the basis of:
o The recent demonstration by the new Government (and its Ministry) that domestic coal must be extracted and that the proposed Phulbari coal mine is a big factor is delivering the necessary coal supply
o Bangladesh's economy remaining under pressure with respect to foreign exchange reserves, inflation and purchasing power
And….
Outlook
It is apparent from the forementioned Seminar and its action-orientated title: "Prospects and Challenges of Bangladesh's Coal Resources and Measures to Overcome", the Government is serious regarding developing its domestic coal resources. It is also apparent from the fact that the Presentation to the Seminar by Ministry officials highlighted the benefits of developing the Phulbari coal mine that the GCM Project is on their radar as an important non-import coal supply solution.
Against this backdrop, it appears the outlook for moving the Project forward has greatly improved and that it is now more the question of when. In the analysis of "when", considerations will involve the sense of urgency driven by the country's economic position and the election schedule. With regard to the former, the economy is reported to remain under pressure with respect to foreign exchange reserves, inflation and purchasing power of the local currency. Compounding this is the mounting uncertainties within the world economy and the suspension of foreign aid by the US government. Regarding the latter, the mainstream political parties are calling for an early election to restore democracy and shore up law and order, however, the Chief Adviser remains circumspect and although has suggested an election by December 2025 is possible, it is also suggested this would depend on acceptance of reforms which are yet to be finalised.
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