Member Info for dictumdedicto

So, PoG is certainly looking strong sitting at $1400:

https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

And I'm also reading and listening to some serious non-gold bugs forecasting much higher prices. Again, it's almost ten years since I've heard this sort of bullishness outside the gold enthusiasts. Today's FSN is a good case in point:

https://www.financialsense.com/podcast/19179/when-fed-cuts-rates-something-going-wrong

Based on my experience in 2010 when the gold price starts to move the whole sector starts to light up. And those starting production, or who are just about to, benefit the most. A $300 move in PoG would put multiples the current valuation on CNR, even without any production. With it (and $1700 gold) and we could be talking 200p a share not 20p.
Nonetheless, we are still in a 'show' not 'tell' world and many investors having lost bucketloads in the negative sentiment of the past six or seven years. PoG has been directionless for many of those years so investors are wary. It's going to take a little time before they start to believe again.

The next stop for PoG is probably in the upper £1400s but we have to get through the (COMEX) contract rollover fun at the end of the month first. It's been years since I kept an eye on this but I will be this month end.

Meanwhile, in Condor land I assume we are still waiting for the B2B board to endorse local proposals and for developments on the reserves front. The potential for increasing reserves cannot be a bad thing and can only increase the company's attractiveness to a larger suitor. The summer holiday season is almost upon us so it could be a few months before we get CNR news. Considering the whole situation of PoG and Condor's situation it's hard not to see it as a good time to buy while prices are low. I took that opportunity last week.

I bought a handful but missed the 22p slot (the price if going to the gym for a couple of hours). Nonetheless, still in at 24p and may pick up a few more before the day is out. It's frustrating to watch the price drop but I've kicked myself in the past for missing them as buy opportunities. We have a false market at the moment, driven by a outsize seller.

ddd

I'm just waiting for it to bottom out. There is obviously a fund based seller out there but who it it I don't know. Does anyone? In the meantime it's just a wait and see situation as nothing appears to have changed. I am tempted to go in on Friday but I just can't figure out whether we have reached the bottom or not.

ddd

MC is a pro in terms of how he deals with private shareholders. He does it (communicates) by the book. However, that does not mean he is unwilling to respond to a courteous and properly requested question now and again. You won't get any info that you could not already work out or 'guess' from the news already out there but what you will get is an update on the latest PR exercise. He might even give you a steer on when he's going to Nic or if he's just been there.

The 'to do' list between August and end 2019 is:

Infill drilling
Infrastructure design
Hydrology and metallurgy

All of which adds up to a BFS.

A cash raising will be required before long although it may be early 2019. It's likely to be a mix of loan and TSX equity (already hinted at). This would get us to BFS, maybe during Q4 2019.

With a BFS we are looking at the big one, probably a staged project finance deal, and likely in association with a far bigger partner. My guess is that MC already knows who the likely candidates might be with some or all of them having already kicked the tyres. I don't therefore think everything will happen is a serial manner. If an early partner appears on the scene (before BFS completion), which if I'm honest I am banking on, a 2020 timeline is not beyond achievement.

If the bank finance and partner is in place as we roll in to 2020 then it becomes a plan execution task. I'm obviously in the world of guessing but based on what I've seen with other juniors it would be possible to get to first gold by the end of 2020. It would probably be trial production and full production could be a year after that. Regular dividends are likely some years away.

I acknowledge that it would be aggressive and if we don't get a partner next year then probably too aggressive. But with the stars aligning it is almost 2.5 years between now and first gold which I don't think is impossible, especially with a locally supportive political environment (a positive perception of this will be important for the banking crowd).

Of course I could be completely wrong and the whole timeline could be twice as long. However, from what I have seen of MC's modus operendi I don't think that will be allowed to happen. He doesn't strike me as a thumb twiddler. And most important of all he very much wants to make some money as well; and soon! It's already been eleven years of his life.

Meanwhile, I see gold went over $1200 today and slipped back. It's a pain in the ass but these round numbers often seem to act as support on the way down and resistance on the way back up. It's $1195 as I sign-off.

ddd

MC is not going to do an Elon Musk and tweet his plans. However, what I do know is that his ambitions are far more aggressive than most people think and that the realisation of these ambitions are now more in his hands than in local politics. Like everyone else I’m waiting for an investor update with a timeline but given what I know about his background I strongly suspect that he’s already prepared the financing ground but has been unable to progress without the permits in place and local political support. I’m also of the view that the type of mining initially targeted makes a 2020 production date feasible, certainly by the end of that year.

ddd

What you will see is that PR will now ramp-up considerably in association with a fund-raising roadshow. My guess is that it will start to roll in earnest in late September/early October. Whether or not we get a RNS s moot. It does cost money to release news through official channels and MC will usually want to ensure that the stuff he puts out is really worth putting out through the RNS service.

What people need to see is that this is now very much the world of MC. He’s a City man and knows the ropes on raising money. We will see the benefits of this experience in the coming months and our experience should compare favourably with the ‘talented geologist’ types who are often good for a junior in the early stages but fall foul of the sharks in the money world. And don’t forget MC has ‘skin in the game’. He wants this to succeed even more than you do.

The mine financing round will attract attention from the mid-caps, and maybe even a major or two, in the sector. With ‘Peak Gold’ imminent or perhaps even passed they all need to replenish depleted reserves. Condor most certainly fits the bill so I do think a bid over the next year or so is a high possibility.

Watch that gold price. With the largest short on COMEX since 2002, this is a massive contra-indicator that a bounce is due. Positive gold price sentiment will lift the sector and Condor with it in the short term.

ddd

Hovering under $1200:

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

It bounced, as predicted by the TA crowd, at circa $1176 a few days ago.

ddd

It's the silly season with low volumes and crazy unexpected moves. Only the Christmas to New Year period can match it in wacky pricing.

Condor will now start aligning itself more with the price of gold. I'm currently watching it and we could see it back over $1200 on Wednesday. My sense is that Condor will track it.

I'm also of the opinion that the company will be close to, or actually producing, in 2020. It won't be "years". as some seem to think. Yes, there is a funding round ahead but I think you will find that the money will now appear.

Local politics are of limited relevance. Whatever the flavour of government they will want business-producing jobs, and Condor fits the bill. One of the most basic of human rights is the right to feed your family. For that you need a job.

As for the timing of the release, to a significant extent they had to release it. You can't pick and choose when to release UPSI: the permits arrived and the company had to communicate.

PR has been ongoing but you have to remember it is August and everyone is on vacation. Mid-September to December will be the real test of PR effectiveness.

Back to gold. The USD is now looking overpriced, and everyone, pretty much everyone, is in the long dollar trade. The FED is not helping with its unnecessary spiking of interest rates but I think a wake-up call is due. If the DXY wobbles, which it probably will before long, gold will spike and Condor should follow it back up again. Even the FED can't control the USD forever.

Tiny volumes have caused major moves down in the last few days and the same will happen in the opposite direction once the holiday crowd reappears to trade.

The best is yet to come.

ddd

Another batch are soon to expire. I doubt they could buy anywhere near 3.5m on the open market so it will be interesting to see what happens to them. It would certainly be a display of confidence if.............

'3,561,111 warrants at exercise price of 144p. Expiry date between September 2018 - October 2018'

http://ca.condorgold.com/investors/share-info?tvwidgetsymbol=LSE:CNR

ddd

This may be counter-intuitive to some people but it may be that the market makers have a sizeable buyer for your shares. If they have then then will try both higher and lower prices to shake people out of their current positions. Higher prices appeal to greed and lower appeal to the fear sentiment, but both have the effect of moving investors on. If you can't buy at low volumes you can bet that a larger trade is afoot somewhere. You need to ask yourself: Does it make sense that the price should drop after some positive company-changing news? and, Why can't I buy what I want when I want to? Whatever is going on will no doubt play out in the next few days.

ddd

It may well put 30p - 40p on the price but you have to remember that this is not 2010 when gold was soaring and market reaction to anything in the sector was phenominal. The news came out when everyone was on holiday. If the past is anything to go by the price will start to move when a big buyer sees the opportunity and makes his or her move. And that probably will not be in August. Six or eight weeks from now and we will be in a different market. News will have filtered out and research will be underway. Who knows, we might even have a trade buyer lurking by then.

Enjoy the summer and ignore the short term volatility.

ddd

I would guess later on in the year, maybe October/November when the markets are in full swing. Volatility after a big news event always happens and with less liquid stocks the swings are always more extreme. It looks like some selling into Monday's news is still taking place so it could be September before we get a settled base price. Whatever the price is at the moment what we do know is that Condor is now massively undervalued for its development stage. With a good wind by spring 2020 we could be producing.

We are in the holiday season and MC deserves a break. Better now than in the Autumn. And he did break his holiday to spend a week in Nicaragua to give the local team a pat on the back for what is a major achievement.

ddd

A lot of TSX junior mining investors got their fingers burnt in the madness of 2008 - 2012. It's also the best market in the world for mining which means there is a lot of choice. Condor has not been listed on the TSX for that long and it may take some time for prospective buyers to do their research before buying-in. They need to trust that it's not just another empty vessel. I think you will see some speculative buying but the savvier types may well wait until the price settles.46p could be where it's at but my sense is that it will just be a temporary stop.

Now that the permits are in place I think MC will make undertake some serious PR. He's walked the course in the past but that was with a far higher risk prospect. He's currently on holiday in Ibiza so don't expect anything quickly. My guess is that it will start around mid-September when everyone is back in their respective saddles.

ddd

For anyone interested, click the 'peers' on the Stockhouse link (last post) and you are given a list of companies in the same space as Condor.

ddd

Still hovering around the 46p mark ($0.78 Cdn).

http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/quote?symbol=t.cog

It's likely the TSX is still letting AIM take the lead on pricing. That may well change in the coming months.

ddd

Incidentally, I forgot to mention the price of gold and the fact that a lot of investors are soaking in the sun. Gold is experiencing summer weakness which could well put a few people off: $1215 as I look at it:

https://goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

If we see it bounce back in the Autumn I could see that helping spark more interest.

So, in summary, factors that will help move the price to another band:

- A PR campaign by Condor.
- An early 'next step', perhaps September or October.
- Gold price trending upwards again.
- End of the summer holiday season.
- End of the short term 'selling into news' traders. Could be today that one.

The price will increase, of that I'm sure. But not instantly.

ddd

Looks to me like whoever ends up calling the shots the mine will go ahead. The people basically want and need it. I now tend to see the politics as irrelevant to progress. If anything I reckon that now the permits are in place the government will start pushing hard to get it up and running quickly. They could get a political win on the back of Condor's work.

I think people are expecting too much too soon. It is true that the permits are a major de-risking event or a game changer as I called it a day or two ago but it is not of itself the catalyst for the biggest price move. What it does is put Condor on the shelf, effectively with a 'for sale' notice underneath If, as and when a buyer does turn up it's then that we will see a more instant leap. In the meantime you can expect a slow but steady incline in value as the countdown to production starts.

Also, it was inevitable that some short term traders would sell in to the rise. I saw quite a few 10,000 and 25,000 trades yesterday which looked more like sells than buys. This ALWAYS happens when you get any type of major positive news and we need to get past it before seeing the gradual incline to a re-rate. It may be that over the next few weeks we only get back to the 50 - 60p band but that is a darn site better than 40p. A year from now, without a buyer appearing, I could see 100p. A buyer would accelerate that process somewhat more dramatically.

There is a lot of choice on the TSX so it will take some time for investors to first find and then trust Condor. We may see some initial interest later today but my guess is that the investors will trickle in over a period of months, as MC's PR campaign gets underway. A solid rumour of a prospective buyer would certainly help.

I switched around a few things in my portfolio in the last 24 hours and this included buying a few more CNR. I've been in Condor approaching ten years so another year or so won't make much difference. I'm prepared to wait for production which could represent three times today's price. Not that I think the company will get there without some serious M&A interest.

ddd

True. I had forgotten about Civic Day.

https://www.tmxmoney.com/en/investor_tools/market_hours.html

ddd

Thus far the volumes have been small but because CNR is a typical AIM share we don't have much liquidity. Strong demand will shift the price significantly. It will only take one or two buyers wanting 100k+ to put a rocket under the SP but the more astute buyer will wait a day or two to see where the new initial price settles.

I've used Centamin as a reference point in the past for what happens when a miner starts producing. There were one or two hiccups on the way but the general pattern is there to be seen.

A more recent illustration of CNR valuation reference for ounces in the ground is Dalradian. I'm trying to work out my own numbers but I'm told that Condor's MV/oz is a third or more of what Dalradian's was prior to the recent offer.

CNR has a long way to go yet and I would be stunned if MC accepted anything less than three figures if someone wants to have a go.