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Yes I know it's a mugs game trying to forecast a share price on the back of some expected news so I'll frame it as a hope rather than a forecast.

I would hope that publication of the BFS would push the price back to the 50p or so level, especially given the tiny volumes a piece of solid news actually generates. If it does top 50p then I would expect some trader sell-off which might knock it back to around the upper 30s or lower 40s which, I also hope, would allow it form a base around that level in anticipation of an announcement of a project finance package.

A funding announcement ought to raise the price another 50% or so, to say the 60s, which again would hopefully form a base for the a series of positive mine development announcements. In other words a slow but steady increase towards 3 figures over a 12 - 18 month period (post funding announcement).

A bid from RIO or another serious player torpedoes that scenario and essentially puts Condor in play for an NPV valuation less a chunk for buyer's discount - I'm assuming they would not want to pay full value.

My personal best case scenario would be 150p, or thereabouts, although depending on your personal assumptions about reserves, the gold price, and what a buyer is prepared to pay, you could come up with almost anything + or - that number. I've tried modelling values and prices in the past, but in the end the price tends to be negotiated; modelling a price is no more than an input to a negotiated settlement.

I've be in it for 12 years, and I'm going to run the course to either a trade sale or a stream of dividends.

Best of luck to everyone who has stuck with it so far and who might finally get some payback. My wish several weeks ago was for a mid to late September announcement. All being well it will be realised and we'll see something by the middle of the month, or even earlier. I think today that the market is finally stirring to the multi-bagger potential of Condor.

Let's hope...

I must admit I had almost written off RKH as a potential loss offset against the profits expected from CNR. Looks like I was dead wrong on that. Both CNR and RKH are not sure bets, but both are looking much better than they were a year ago.

If it failed to pay up it would jeopardise any other arbitration in process as the country would risk being kicked out of the convention. There will be times when Italy is the complainant so I doubt it would want to risk this given that any entity\country on the planet might get away with shafting it. Not paying up would be a mega high risk response to a considered process.

I don't think today was a bad start given the obvious short term trading\selling that has taken place. It may take weeks, or months, to double again, but if Italy decide to do the honourable thing and pay fairly quickly then we could see it happen sooner rather than later. What would really make the price move would be some FI related news on the back of the award i.e. something the availability of a large chunk of cash helps make happen.....

There is no scope for Italy to avoid payment outside of the rules of arbitration, whatever some posters may think. I've no doubt that its lawyers will be looking for a loophole but I think they will struggle. Also, the publication of the result MUST have taken place with the consent of both parties (also according to the rules of arbitration), and I've not seen any statements relating to such - I'm aware there is a 120 day appeal period although I if there is nothing already obvious then an appeal could not be based on anything more than a barrel scrape.

According to Section 6/Article 53 the result is binding on both parties:

Section 6
Recognition and Enforcement of the Award
Article 53
(1) The award shall be binding on the parties and shall not be
subject to any appeal or to any other remedy except those
provided for in this Convention. Each party shall abide by and
comply with the terms of the award except to the extent that
enforcement shall have been stayed pursuant to the relevant
provisions of this Convention.

https://icsid.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/ICSID_Convention_EN.pdf

I really can't see where Italy could go on this.

Lots of assumptions here and we don't have all the facts on tax and costs.

However....

A base of Eur190.
6.75 years of interest compounded at circa 3.5% (Euribor has been negative in recent years) yields about Eur50 in interest, giving a total comp of circa Eur240m
Using the 80% retention estimate translates into circa Eur192m.
Let's take another 20% off that for unknowns such as 'other' costs and tax, which brings it down to about Eur153.6m.
Convert to GBP at 1.19 = £129m
£129m/582m = about 22p\share.
Our 'pre-arbitration' SP hovered around 8p, so a reasonable target would be 30p.

However....(again)..

The payment finally opens the door to the South Atlantic so we should get some speculative 'next steps' uplift on that.
We will probably not get full value reflected in the SP until the money is in the bank, which could be January next year.

We'll see.

It's still August so don't expect much to happen during the holiday season. With luck we will see the BFS around the end of September which will be better for any potential moves in the SP. In the meantime either take the opportunity to buy while the price is low, or just sit tight. Expecting drama at this time of year is not realistic. The FTSE itself is treading water at best, so you can't expect a junior miner, without any news, to show much life. With luck Condor will become interesting again early October.

Reasons for the recent drop in price have been flogged to death already so I'll just repeat that it's primarily down to the market makers trying to get the market moving during the quiet summer period. It would also not surprise me for one minute to find that the drop to 20p was a tree shake, to dislodge any stop-loss positions in that area. The fact that there are far more buys coming through today leads me to suspect that they needed more liquidity to fill orders.

On the macro side nothing has changed, except that we are now another day closer to seeing the BFS published. MC has zilch influence on day to day share price movements. His influence is facilitated via a strategic RNS releases from time to time, and creating an atmosphere of confidence in the direction the company is moving. His media appearances are the main vehicle for this.

I might be surprised in in July or August BFS release although personally, if I had the opportunity, I would wait a few weeks until everyone is back in their seats. The next five weeks are not exactly the best time to talk to the market, although some might suggest that in thin trading a newsworthy release might get a better reaction. I'm not convinced by the latter argument.

Sit tight. We've missed a June BFS release. I reckon a September release would be better. However, if the BFS is completed during the holiday season he might not have a choice. It would be hard to argue that it's not price-sensitive news thus MC might not have a choice but to release it.

We'll see.

Sounds plausible as written, although I have my doubts. If there was a significant dispute it would be hard not to see it as price-affecting, especially if there was a perceived impact on raising the project finance. In which case it would be subject to an RNS. The fact that we have not had an RNS on any disputes suggests either that it is a very minor issue, or it is just as book5 states, a rumour.

MC did not have to exercise underwater warrants. The fact that he did indicates that the project is still pretty much on track, assuming you take a longer view. No one with an ounce of common sense buys shares to lose money straight away. He's either trying to promote confidence in CNR's prospects, or is signalling something that he can't yet put into an RNS.

I don't trust the rumour mill, but then again I'm still unclear why the BFS has been delayed.

As for the downbeaten share price:

1) The warrant hangover is now history so we can tick that,
but,
2) Gold is still $200 below where it was and still looking weak.
3)Markets generally are still volatile. I'm waiting to see if the Gazprom thing turns into anything.
4) It's summer, the usual low trading doldrums.
5) Still nothing tangible on the RNS front. We still are none the wiser as to how close we are to financing the project, where of course the BFS will likely play a part.

Overall not much has changed. I think the market doesn't just want negative news out of the way but is waiting for some really positive and tangible progress.

Back to keeping cool....

This is bigger than most people currently realise:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-declares-force-majeure-gas-supplies-europe-2022-07-18/

Anyone got a live spot price on gas following the Gazprom Force Majure news?

Yes, I'm still baffled in ongoing the delay to the BFS, particularly the lack of explanation.

However, I'm also aware of the warrant hangover which should resolve itself very soon, and the fact that it's taken only a few hundred thousand shares to drop the price 10p. In other words these short term moves are just 'news blackout' fluctuations, as the market makers try and get people interested again. One solid progress based RNS and it will bounce back up. I'm also aware that when you've been in a share more than 10 years even delays of months are lost in the roundings. It's also Summer, which is usually a quiet period on trading and gold has taken nearly a $200 battering in recent weeks. Recession fears are pushing money into an already overvalued USD which is forcing (almost) everything else down. All these macro factors will be working against CNR as well as the micro news hiatus.

I do think MC is solid, although I also sense that he (unwisely) wants to please too much and often says things that raise expectations beyond where they should be. Perhaps this current news famine is a recognition of that. I don't see having 100% of the land as mission critical; I am sure that the project will continue with whatever we have. The fact that Jim Mellon remains a believer and that MC is still in and wants his own payday also gives me confidence that things will turn around.

In the meantime all we can do is grin and bear it. Without a compelling reason for the value of the company to continue to go down, it will plateau at some point (perhaps has already), subsequent to a piece of news which will provoke another wave of speculative buying. As for me I'm not really expecting anything until September, or even early October. Perhaps then we might even see publication of the BFS and something even more interesting, like a prospective buyer\partner.

Fingers crossed.

I've got to add to the list of the disappointed. I can't think of any rational explanation for the gap between promising a Q1 BFS delivery, and what could now be as late as a Q4 delivery. Being charitable I could surmise that MC has switched from over promising and under delivering to under promising and over delivering. Or, perhaps it was a slip of the tongue; he meant to say '...next three to four weeks..'. Now that would have made some sense: still a delivery slip, but one more easily digested.

The BFS is now primarily a desktop exercise. What more 'on the ground' work is needed? Has the scope changed from what could have been delivered by the end of March, to one that now might not be delivered until the end of October? I sincerely hope that the delay is not an exercise in suppressing the SP so that any expiring and under water warrants can be replaced via another raise during the summer.

The problem for CNR is that all these delivery promises are out there. Anyone wanting to commit serious money will undertake DD and inevitably trip over a list of failed delivery dates, many pretty recent. Quite frankly I think it's time for an explanation. Having lived with close to 13 years of waiting, a bit longer is acceptable providing I know what the problem is. I don't.

The SP will continue to drift lower as MMs drop the price in a vain attempt to attract interest. Unfortunately, I don't see much interest out there until the company delivers some tangible progress. We all know the BFS is the closest we are to game-changing news, and now I think the wider market does. As an outsider I would now be questioning why the BFS is three months late. Even more to the point, can a company that cannot deliver a (relatively manageable project) BFS on time be trusted to deliver to a production target.

Until these questions are answered I fear we are stuck in the 20s.

Hang on. I think it's 20% for Canada. It's years since I last looked this up. 'Where a person already beneficially owns, or controls or directs, 20% or more of the outstanding voting securities or equity securities, the acquisition of a single additional security can be a take-over bid.'

Don't expect Jim Mellon to be buying significant quantities given his current holding (including any warrants etc.). I doubt he wants to be forced to make an offer for the company via accidentally falling foul of the Canadian takeover rules. From memory 29.9% is the cut off point for control but if you factor in all the shares he currently has and the options associated with recent placings, this has to be on his radar. Like everyone else I'm guessing he is now starting to look for the day when he can get a return rather than pouring more money into it.

I needed to take some BP/Shell shares off the table, so I thought I might as well buy at 33p rather than wait for 30p. I couldn't buy 15k and had to split it over a 10k and a 5k - you can see them on today's 'trades'. Although the SP seems stuck in the 30 - 35p range, there is very little liquidity. Even my 15k pushed the Ask up from 33p to 33.5p. From what I can see, people are digging in. I'm a long -termer, so the chance of me letting any go in the next 12 months is very low - I'm waiting for a proper return, not threepence! If, as, and when, some real news drops there isn't much to stop the SP racing up to 50p or more very quickly. In recent weeks I've seen other people struggling to buy 10k or more, and now I've experienced it myself.

Yes, I remain frustrated with the time it is taking, but the answer is to exploit price weakness rather than give up. First gold might now be H1 2024 but I think we'll see the price moving much earlier. If, as some believe, the data room is thronged with people running over the numbers then we might even see action within weeks, or months, rather than at some unknowable point in 2023. RIO would indeed be brilliant if it does happen.

The ground has been prepared for Q3 news, but Q2 remains a possibility.

I don't think the BFS is being delayed; I just don't understand why, when the technical stuff has been pinned down, completion is taking longer than originally expected. In my younger years I worked with financial modelling involving infrastructural capex expenditures well in excess of £1 billion. Once the data inputs are established, and model(s) written, it's usually a case of agreeing the most likely revenue and cost scenario. This is usually weeks rather than months. I'll admit to not being an expert on developing NPV models in the mining world, but it can't be that much different. From my perch, the difficult part is establishing the cost base with some level of accuracy. Perhaps rampaging price inflation is causing the problem; maybe....

Moving on, perhaps we should start to think about the various project finance alternatives. The obvious one is that CNR goes for an 80:20 type funding round, weighted in favour of debt. But it's not the only way forward. It may be that a JV is being explored rather than a full buyout. The 'financing' terminology can cover more than just bank type support. Indeed, if a JV is a possibility would a BFS actually be a priority? It's not exactly uncommon for a 'major' to acquire on a staggered basis rather than pursue a full buyout. One or two of the NDAs signed in lieu of access to the data room might in fact be by large industry players. Would they care about a BFS if they had satisfied themselves with the integrity of the data without need of a formal completed feasibility study? I don't know but I'm keeping my mind open.

Today's price action is irritating but in the grand scheme of things is a non-event. A few traders made a bit of money today but the real prize has yet to be granted. I've already decided to increase my holding by around 15% should the price drop back to the 29/30p area. I'm still somewhat disappointed because in my head we are already six weeks beyond where I thought we would be. But then again, there may be activity in that data room that I am not privy to, and in the meantime I'll take advantage of the dip. If we manage first gold by Christmas 2023 or early Q1 2024 non of this will mean a thing. It feels frustrating now but if we a building out a year today the BFS will be no more than a distant memory.

I'm still at a loss to understand why the BFS has been delayed. As mentioned, we are now in a desktop world running scenarios. Whatever the final study looks like there will be an accuracy tolerance, so what is there in the cost estimates that can be so significant as to potentially delay completion for weeks, or even months?

I'm encouraged by activity in the data room, but I doubt we will make any real progress until the FS is out.

It looks like yesterday's buying was speculation on something significant happening. Now that a quick buck is not on the table traders are baling out. As for me I'll wait until it hits 30p again before topping up.

Yes. You can add me to the ranks of the disappointed. I don't warm to woolly deadlines, 'Q2, maybe Q3'. It looks like it's another case of forget about it, yet again..

Well, you couldn't deliberately withhold news of the BFS given that it would be price sensitive. What you might do, if you had a reason, would be to ensure that it was not yet completed i.e. in the company's hands. I must admit to being puzzled as to why it's not out. I acknowledge that they do take a long time, and that they have to be right. Nonetheless, even MC (who is a lot closer to the subject than we are), initially thought that by the end of Q1 would be a reasonable timeline. My own thinking on that timeline being missed was fine, a few weeks is neither here nor there, maybe the AGM would be a good point to release the news. After all, traditionally general meetings were the events where important news stuff would be released; RNS updates only emerged because you can't have a general meeting every time something of import emerges.

This was obviously a wrong assumption. So I'm now a bit stumped. While a few weeks later than expected is a bit 'so what?', if it starts to stretch into months beyond the end of March you start to wonder why. What is there in the BFS that's causing a delay? It is after all more of a desktop exercise. Or, as Simms is starting to speculate, is there another reason why the BFS is not in the company's hands. To say the least, I find that fact that most of the activity on the trading front today seemed to be on the buy side. And that on a day when nothing particularly new was released. We often see speculative buying in advance of a 'real news' RNS releases, so today's buying seems more anomalous to me.

Who's buying and why now?

The AGM is at 3.00pm. It will be interesting to see if we get a 3.00pm RNS on the BFS. I can't really think of a better time to announce it, if indeed it is ready. Certainly, the tone of the meeting would change from something routine to something game-changing. Even if it's not out, I doubt the subject can be avoided. I can't see a CoB RNS as being much more than confirmation of the usual AGM statutory stuff. I'll keep an eye on the SP in the last hour of trading today. You never know.....