Member Info for dictumdedicto

If this runs its course we could see quite a shift in the perception of gold:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/new-gold-standard-kremlin-confirms-intention-back-ruble-gold-and-commodities

I did take the opportunity to buy another handful yesterday when the price hit 30p. One thing to bear in mind with the BFS is that it has to be 100% right. If there are holes in early drafts because its been rushed it would be a disaster. Better take the time to get it right before hawking it round to raise $100m+. I'm disappointed it's not already out but I would rather it be late, and be right, rather than it be shoved out unready. The error is expectation management, not the fact that it is not yet out.

Key copper players in Nic:

Calibre Mining Corp.
B2Gold Corp.
Daniel Ortega
Embajada de Corea del Sur en Nicaragua
Kim Doo-Sik

RIO has been looking at Nic for at least the last two years.

While I acknowledge it doesn't take much to move the SP (either way), given the timing of today's interest relative to the 'BFS in a couple weeks' statement, could an RNS be in the pipeline? Or is it a somewhat feeble P&D? At the moment I'm more inclined to think the former rather than the latter given that the BFS has to be released at some point in the not-too-distant. Even so, today's moves have not even got the SP back to the last placing so I can't get too excited. Nonetheless, I'll keep an eye out for a late release today, or something early tomorrow.

You never know....

So it looks like the BFS is still imminent, “,,within the next two weeks”. And first gold “…within 24 months”. Still many dependencies but I’m now thinking Q1 2024 rather than H2 2023 for first gold. Having said that if project finance is already lined up Q4 2023 may still be a possibility. Whatever the case, I think we’ll see a re-rate before any gold is delivered. Whether the catalyst is the BFS, or the finance in place, remains to be seen.

Yep. That's when I first bought a piece of Condor. This was not originally a retirement investment but it now looks like its become one.

I'm as disappointed as everyone else that the BFS is not already out there. My own perspective is that it's a more 'controllable' task than many of the others (e.g. land acquisition), so I'm at a loss to explain, or understand, why we don't already have it. If we are paying for something and have agreed a reasonable deadline then nothing should have stopped delivery. Still, there's no point getting all exited about something that has already happened; the question is what to do next.

I've clung on to these shares through thick and thin; regime changes, placements, the sentiment roller coaster, Covid, the post 2008 financial whiplash, the gold bear... the list goes on. The glass may be half empty this week due to a missed deadline but by the end of April we might still have it. If we do, then today's hand-wringing will look embarrassing to say the least. If we don't then I think an explanation is due. Ultimately, we are all paying for it and it's not unreasonable to ask why. If I'm honest it's not really unreasonable to ask for an explanation now, although personally I've become pretty sanguine about missed deadlines. It's just another cross in the box. Not exactly unusual for a junior.

So I'm holding on. I would feel like a grade A muppet if I sold out in a fit of annoyance, if the BFS came out the day after, and then promoted a wave of buying. One way or another Condor will be developed . I now look at a year like I used to look at a month. Once upon a time a month felt like an age. It now feels like the blink of an eye (OK, I exaggerate but you get the gist). What matters more to me is whether a few days, or weeks, delay in releasing the BFS will materially affect the prospect of first gold in late 2023. That's what I've really got my hopes on, even if is in the last could of weeks in December.

Hold. Placements and warrants have all tended to be somewhat above the current share price, and the directors maintain skin in the game. However bleak it may look today, it's still only a delayed milestone. We are not going bust anytime soon.

12.5 years and counting. Pragmatism, or a triumph of optimism over reality?

An interesting article:
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/us-tees-up-stop-russian-gold-act-triggering-lbma-and-comex-to-eject-russian-refiners/

I'm guessing that this will push PoG up before long.

Looks like big nothingburger:

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/219258/bp-sells-rosneft-stake-morningstar-analysis.aspx

With this as a provision or write down, there won't be much 'windfall' to tax, Keir......

It looks like we've completed a round trip; up to nearly $1975 and then back down to circa $1885. Clearly a Putin driven spike. Now that the markets have seen that Germany and Italy won't agree to Russia being ejected from SWIFT, and the weakness of EU sanctions, it looks like traders are becoming more relaxed. I must admit I find it bizarre that in the midst of a war, gas is still flowing through Ukraine.

A mentioned, while we may see war driven spikes, further gold increases in price will be driven by financial factors; inflation and the U.S. yield curve/interest rates, being likely suspects. While $1880 or so may look disappointing, it's still above a key resistance point. If it stays at this level it could form a solid base for a more gradual increase towards GS's $2150, and possibly beyond.

Condor's reaction to gold price increases will likely be factored into the post BFS release reaction, hopefully only a matter of weeks away.

Yep. Agreed that the BFS would mark the next stage of shareholder interest.

It seems to me that traders are thinking that Russia will remain in SWIFT and are marking down their view of risk accordingly. If Russia does get booted out of SWIFT I don't think a short term spike above $2000 is out of the question.

It looks like Boris is announcing something after CoB today. It will be interesting to see how far it goes. Polymetal has been hammered 40% today. I don't think its operations are affected within Russia although I'm unclear how it will get its money out in this new world. Likewise BP's investment in Rosneft has earned BP a downgrade.

As for the SP, I could see it settling around the last placing price (circa 35p). I think we need Condor's own news to push it further on.

Much as I would like to agree, I'm not sure yet whether PoG will stay up. At the moment it looks like a panic-driven spike, which could quickly be sold off if the Ukraine situation calms down. Having said that I don't think we've seen the full move just yet. U.S. traders are only just moving in; I reckon it will be another 2 - 3 hours before it settles to a clear plateau. At the moment I think the traders are waiting to see whether sanctions with real bite are brought in.

Boris is due to speak. We may be a weaker military power than Russia but I've few doubts that the UK is a stronger financial power. If full sanctions are applied it will hurt Russia (and by consequence us as well).

U.S. is waking up. It will be a brave soul who shorts PoG today. I don't think even the usual BIS actors will want to shape the price today.

I must say that everything looks like a complete mess. I'm baffled at the Putin move given its irrationality, though I guess that's what irrational people do. Until today I thought he was a wily actor, but that view has changed overnight. If real sanctions are applied we will all feel a lot of pain. I'm already seeing speculative drops in BP, and other FTSE companies with significant Russian interests. If energy sanctions are applied, and SWIFT is cut off, we are all in deep sh... Putin's chilling remarks on "consequences" can only mean military given his country's economic weakness. Energy sanctions and the removal of access to SWIFT backs him into a corner - the likely impacts on Russia's economy would be devastating. Hawks might push for them but I'm not sure at all whether cornering an irrational actor is a clever move.

All of which seems far away from a discussion on Condor. But everything is linked. Our direct link to this is via the PoG, so, at least in the short term, Ukraine is relevant. With events moving very quickly that $2150 does not look anywhere near as far away as it did 24 hours ago. Ultimately, $2150 will be driven by financial factors, not spike inspired military incursions in far eastern Europe.

CNR's price is stable, but it doesn't look like anything like an occasion for cheering. Spot gold $1970 as I finish writing.

Condor seems to be attracting a slight amount of interest. I'm not clear on whether this is down to PoG appearing to be unwilling to stay down below $1900 for long, or whether there is a bit of Condor news flow brewing. It seems a bit early for what we are waiting for, but then who am I to judge?

As ever, it's small volumes moving the SP.

Any views?

They do seem to want to outgun each other. So we’ve now had $2100, $2500, and $2700 forecasts for this year, And yet….. PoG is stuck at around $1900 despite the threat of WW3. It looks like the market doesn’t think much of the pretty toothless sanctions, nor does it believe a war is imminent.

Anyone got any increases on $2700 (this year!).

Jeff Christian thinking from a couple of weeks ago:
https://player.fm/series/the-korelin-economics-report/jeff-christian-4-key-factors-when-analyzing-gold-interest-rates-inflation-geopolitics-and-investment-demand

One of last week's podcasts on Real Vision. This chap is even more bullish than Goldman on PoG, $2500. On a day when it's slipped below $1900 again it seems wildly optimistic but there are so many now forecasting increases beyond $2000, that it is hard to ignore. Even Jeff Christian, the once perma-bear, is now expecting a run. I used to dismiss his views as being 'in the pocket' of the big banks. I learned to my cost that was why he tended to have a better accuracy rate than most others. Anyway, back to the podcast, if you don't want to listen there is a transcript in the link:
https://www.realvision.com/shows/daily-briefing/videos/there-is-no-gold-but-gold?source_collection=89dc905231eb407cb2f77327ba8b714d

Perhaps I should also add that another $250 - $300 uplift to the gold price would add another 20p - 30p to an exit price, probably a lot more given it drops straight to the bottom line. Perhaps something north of 200p is within reach.

Not sure if anyone noticed this a couple of days ago:

https://analisagold.com/2022/02/gold-is-the-geopolitical-hedge-of-first-resort-goldman-sees-2150-within-12-months/

$2150, though a step in the right direction, still seems way below where QE and inflation points at. I'm guessing, but I would have thought closer to $2500 over the next year. Then again, we are at the mercy of central bank meddling, mysterious jumps and declines in price for no obvious profit motive.

I've not come across any rumours just yet but with the land problem now rear view mirror stuff, and the BFS etc. potentially only weeks away, bid speculation can't be a million miles behind. Today's slight movement is probably more a reaction to gold hitting $1900 than much to do with Condor, though the proximity of good news has got to be on some people's minds.

My view of an exit price would be somewhere between the market value at the time of bid and the calculated NPV of the whole project, the former being the bottom and and the latter the top end. MC won't sell at the low end given the amount of time he's been in it, though I doubt he will get close to NPV. My guess is that the negotiation will take place around 20% or 25% below NPV, given that a bidder will want a discount for the hassle factor of actually getting the thing up and running and delivering cash flow. The more Condor does prior to a bid the higher the market value will be. Likewise the NPV hassle discount will also decrease.

The last NPV calculation I saw, based on the DCF from the initial open-pit and underground mining, suggested around 180p on the basis of current shares in issue. Knock 20% off that and maybe 150p is a bid discussion point. Then again, there is still a lot of value add to the prospect. Assume a bigger project and you start adding back to the 150p. Assume we are a lot more advanced and the hassle factor diminishes. When you start playing with the numbers you can start to make a case for something north of 200p.

Alas, all you end up with is a list of assumptions and some optimism. Which all goes to prove that we are probably still to early to get anywhere near an estimate of exit value.

It's always fun to speculate though.