RE: Namibia- farm out10 Oct 2024 21:33
Understanding the Active Petroleum System in the northern Walvis Basin
hTTps://www.linkedin.com/pulse/understanding-active-petroleum-system-northern-walvis-rushworth-qp7ye?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&utm_campaign=share_via
Big big structures
Multi Billion bbls potential prospects
Gas chimneys
DHI's
All indicating a working hydrocarbon system
hTTps://youtu.be/9l1RyD5Sjqo?si=Mx9-Vcn04g2QkFtT
Namibia drilling isn't imminent but getting in early from a £6.5m mktcap the shares will re rate due to the size of the prize
Let me explain...
The recent update ref basin modelling generally went under the radar ,I'll try and explain the significance of the findings
Back in the day, Welwitschia was a great-looking opportunity, oil seeps, AVO, four-way dip closure and chimneys, which is why Repsol was prepared to spend the best part of $100m on it but when the original basin modelling was being done, back in 2010 there was much less data - less seismic and fewer wells , So the decision to drill Welwitschia did look like a good choice at the time
The results from the recent basin modelling have confirmed the dolphin graben appears to have generated large volumes of oil which appear to have migrated W, NW and NE, but it appears that relatively small volumes would have migrated SW towards Welwitchia.
So that would explain why, especially in the absence of a charge from the Aptian source rock, the syn-rift source rock from the Graben would probably not have reached Welwitschia, explaining why they well was dry,
Even what may have migrated in that direction from the graben would probably have first encountered structural traps on the flanks of the structure.
Therefore the basin modelling has provided an explanation why we did not encounter oil at Welwitschia, despite high levels of oil generation and migration paths to other structures to the W, NW and NE, and when your new model predicts a negative which was correct, then this is also confirmation for the model moving forward is good indicator
It's clear the structures have a number of DHIs, oil seeps, clear migration pathways ,potential to be mutli billion bbl especially,the alpha and gama structures which are huge in size
We have 80% interest here, high equity stake, if we farm out 50% to a major for 3D and 1well commitment potentially the Alpa or Gamma structure , this will re rate shares over time towards spud due to the size of the prize
A 20% interest in a billion bbl prospect would mean 200mmbbls net to TRP, potential $500-600m in the ground value net to TRP from a current mktcqp of £6.5m and that's just one structure, we have a number of structures and leads, which we await updated resource potential
So you can see the significance from the recent updated basin modelling results
Confirmed the Welwitschia well to be a negative
Confirmed the dolphin graben to have generated large amounts of oil
Numerous structures and leads m
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