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I concur I_B. You’d think they’d be encouraging buyers to fill what was clearly a sell order. So, as you say, there is always someone on the other side of a transaction. Maybe Mr Cranston or someone else building their stake. Clearly that stock was snapped up, we know that much.
I would love to believe this late rise is the indicator of imminent positive news. However it’s more likely that it’s simply that MM’s have no stock and just hiked the bid late on to try and drum up some business.
And we also know that in terms of ARR (because the NHS,once you land them,is a long term partner) the total addressable market for CDC’s alone (not including the rest of the NHS) is £96m pa.
It therefore follows that if FDBK were to land even a fraction of that number this will multibag from here.
Https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/02/18/2387792/28124/en/India-Healthcare-Apps-Market-Report-2021-Market-was-Valued-at-INR-43-41-Bn-in-2020-and-is-Estimated-to-Reach-INR-337-89-Bn-by-2026-Growing-at-a-CAGR-of-39-37.html
Healthcare Apps market in India to grow by almost 40% CAGR. Digitalisation of the healthcare industry in India is taking off. Feedback, right place right time. Two Healthcare Innovation Awards in past week.
Feedback guy in charge in India was key player in UK India Business Council for years with high reputation and big network of connections in the country.
We do not have to pin all our hopes on the NHS (thank goodness). Join the dots peeps.
EV here is now around £3m. Yes £3m. Small wonder there has barely been a sell since the placing last week. You’d have to be rather desperate to sell at these going bust prices.
I’m not going to set out the entire investment case, from my standpoint, in this post. But it’s convinced me to stick around and probably add more to average down.
The fact is this company possesses unique and, yes, disruptive technology. Yes I can hear all the counter arguments… never made a profit, poor management, lack of commercial focus, purely R&D Co., snails pace progress. All of those things are true to some extent. But the past is what it is, the Past.
What we have now is a company that is in rather a good place re their technology. It’s unique. It has a very large moat now. No one else can do what they can do. They have no direct competitors who can compete with them on a level playing field with their technology.
It just needs a management team that can unlock the value and potential.
I saw several promising snippets in the recent results that might have gone unnoticed.
I’ll share them in future posts.
One thing I do know is this company is def worth substantially more than £3m. Absolutely absurd when you look at the garbage out there on AIM that’s valued at multiples of that price.
No matter what your view of Hardides progress this is NOT a bucket shop stock with bucket shop placings though the recent placing resembled one with a scandalous 21% discount to the SP. Disgusting IMHO. However, that said, investors in the placing are not, imo, going to be able to shift their shares even if they wanted to. The reason? This stock is extremely illiquid. They simply wouldn’t be able to offload on the market unless they could negotiate an off market bulk sale. And why would you when you have taken the shares at a going bust price?
No I don’t see overhang as an issue here. The issue is the fundamentals. Can they get the sales to drive the revenue back up? I don’t see a lot of scope for further downside here. It’s now a classic recovery play at this price.
Barnacle - that’s no less than TWO separate Innovation Awards in India in FOUR days for Bleepa. Impressive indeed. Now we can confidently expect this to be translated into incoming business as both these two occasions were great sales and marketing breakthroughs putting us (as Tom would say) ‘under the noses’ of all the right connected people within India’s healthcare industry.
Anish Patel (CFO) has stated ‘Very confident of business in the short term’.
Other thing I’d like to mention is the £300k award for the new Pilots is for just THREE months work to 31.3.2024. This would translate to £1.2m if awarded for 12 months equivalent. And that figure is considerably more eye catching when you compare to a paltry current MC @ £9m.
Coffee - not a bad way to look at the opportunity here. India is an absolutely mind blowingly humongous opportunity. It would gulf the NHS many times over. In terms of India I think we have a fantastic foot in the door through the recruitment of Rohit Singh. This guy was with the UK India Business Council for TEN years before joining Feedback six month’s ago. He must have an impressive range of connections with Indian business. That is for sure. So this guy has a network of contacts and a creditable profile known and respected within the Indian business community. I don’t think we, as a very small company, could possibly have a better chance of winning business in India than through this guy. Hell, Bleepa has already won an innovative award in India and he hasn’t even been in the post for six months.
The CFO has stated he is VERY confident of winning new business in the short term. Tom has stated that Rohit has already built a sizeable pipeline of opportunities.
coffee - maybe, just maybe it will be India that opens the floodgates, particularly with the VERY timely introduction of their own Data Protection Act. Perfect. Surely we won’t snatch defeat from the jaws of impending victory.
John Peter Lobbenberg - an 84 year old former Chartered Accountant (not normally the kind of profile that take huge risks!)
Also previously ran a Portfolio Management group.
This company is currently priced to go bust. I’m roughly 50% down with an average of 9.75p
But tempted to average down because they will either get taken out or recover, or both.
The guy clearly has his head screwed on then. Speaking of professional investors if you check out FDBK posts on LinkedIn you will often find a number of professional investors and well connected people in the healthcare space liking their posts. I read this as a good indicator and an endorsement of my own interest.
So did anyone else come out of yesterday’s InvestorMeet meeting with renewed positivity?
A number of potential short term catalysts now for SP growth. As I have stated on here before a number of times we are NAILED ON now to get the QVC contract which is worth £1.6m over 2 years and this will be a long term recurring revenue arrangement. QVC is the flagship CDC pilot which forms the blueprint for follower Trusts to adopt. The two more recently awarded CDC pilots are due to finish the end of next month (31 March) so we can expect to hear news there on the next steps (contract awards or further pilot extensions). Keep in mind the two recent pilots have been awarded at a NATIONAL level by NHS England os this is now being looked at closely at a NATIONAL level. FDBK yesterday confirmed they have been discussing possible deals with up to 20 CDC’s. We can expect this figure to rise as interest grows.
Then we have the entry into private healthcare which loooks more and more interesting as one sees the possibilities, including winning outsourced NHS work.
And then India which looks like becoming an additional revenue stream. The CFO yesterday confirmed that they are expecting contract/pilot news developments in the short term stating they are very confident of this with Rohit Singh building a growing pipeline of prospects including large hospital groups. India are currently implementing a data protection law which will preclude the use of WhatsApp.
So very interesting times ahead after a long wait for things to finally come together.