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Xel123 - actually I’m not speculating anything. I am quoting from the factual information provided by the company themselves.
10p price prior to the licence cancellation is absolutely irrelevant and in any case the market did not know about the JV. The JV as it stands does not look great value for shareholders but who knows maybe Greg will pull a rabbit out of the hat. I personally believe they took it because it was either the best deal on the table or the only deal.
And just because II’s pay 4.25 does not provide any price guarantee whatsoever they frequently lose money on investments too!
Polio
“They aren’t going to let the company go for 5p that’s for sure!”
No? Remember shareholders own the company and LB will be a majority shareholder.
“So you are saying £13 million valuation lol”
No I am not and all you are doing is showing your lack of understanding of what I’m saying.
The company is currently valued @ £13m yes. But you must add on the $81m of future shares to be issued to LB. Thus the future, if you like, ‘projected’ valuation for CMET is more like £78m.
$81m convert to £ is circa £65m so £13m + £65m = £78m
Indeed the market is almost certainly already valuing the company in this way which is why you are not seeing big share price rises when you expect to!
Your other comment about what is in the ground is currently irrelevant because we just don’t know.
Xel123 - oh dear you are just not paying any attention are you and living in a Walter Mitty world.
Perhaps you simply don’t understand.
LB Group do NOT have to ‘demand’ anything. The JV agreement, as it stands, ensures they will become majority shareholders here within a year. The ONLY thing that can possibly avoid that outcome is if GM can achieve a huge increase in the SP prior to or perhaps during the dilution process. But since the market is completely aware of what is coming (hence the reluctance of the SP to rise) that seems to me to be extremely unlikely.
And to be clear I’m not saying that long term this can’t be a decent investment. But it is not going to be the multi bagger that we once thought it could be.
My opinion fwiw it’s clear to me now that LB Group will swallow this up easily without having to bid it up because they will be majority shareholders. And they will get it way beneath the kind of valuations imagined here. The $81m of funding is effectively them already buying up a very large chunk of the company, and for what price? 4p? 5p? Maybe a bit more but no multi bagging.
Sebo10 - I do hope you are not suggesting I am misinforming anyone?
Yes, absolutely they will get 50% of the JV profits. But as regards to their $81m funding it is NOT free cash they are handing to CMET. But don’t believe me just read the words in the RNS: quote
“All funding to be by way of equity on a staged basis”
That seems very straightforward and simple to understand. They will give CMET chunks of cash at specific stages of the project to fund it in exchange for shares. Shares are equity.
Basically another way of putting it is staged placements of shares.
This has huge implications for the current and future valuation of the company. It means huge dilution of the share capital. Of course we don’t know what price LB will pay for their shares.
What I do note is that Greg Martyr has been very keen to tell us they will be fully funded for project development but not so keen to point out that the funding is not ‘free money’. That said the information is all in the RNS so I am not suggesting we have been misled in any way.
It’s just what they say in interviews and what they omit. ;)
Polio - sorry for my tone I did sound a bit abrupt and overbearing.
But yes that is the truth of the matter. You know what they say, there’s no such thing as a free lunch or a free ticket in life…..
A BIG part of investing, particularly on AIM, is about being able to read and FULLY understand an RNS correctly. And not just cherry pick the nice bits the CEO emphasises ;)
Polio - ok re-read the announcement dated 9 May 2023 and tell me where it says the word ‘equity’
That will give you your answer about LB Group getting shares in CMET!!
They’re going to be getting $81m worth of shares ;)
PrivateRyan - hold on ‘Poor Tom’! Geee whizz Oh my goodness you have skewed sympathies. Save your tears for shareholders not the guy who milks a handsome wedge out of this company and has NEVER put his hand in his pocket to buy ONE SINGLE SHARE.
Thanks 5085 great research!
Heavy going but yes very interesting and here is the Conclusion:
“With the rapid advancement of novel therapies targeting the immune checkpoint pathway, there is a pressing need to develop better biomarkers to assess likely clinical response in advance of therapeutic intervention. Here, we report on a novel 3D genomics approach to identify predictive blood-based markers that can identify, with high accuracy, individuals that are likely to respond to PD-(L)1 ICIs monotherapy, especially across tumour types with low ORRs. The 3D genomics approach described here has been developed into a clinical assay to assist in treatment decisions, help improve patient selection for optimised treatment, help better utilise alternative effective treatments, minimise or avoid unnecessarily toxicity, and efficiently manage costs and resources.”
Have to remember that volume is extremely low over the past few weeks.
So even though we’ve dropped back there’s been no substantial selling. Just regular AIM drift on lack of news or impetus.
I think folk are assuming no substantial news now until the big January update where we will def get news on sales. My guess is that we will start to see the SP move in anticipation before the end of the year. Unless we get an ‘unexpected’ (by the market at least) announcement before then which is perfectly possible.
In purely hypothetical terms at this stage To retrospectively cancel approval previously given for tests viz a viz CIRT and PSE seems to me extremely unlikely. This would not be received well in the medical community where these tests are already proving their value and validity and being used by leading doctors.. furthermore the same model and platform (Episwitch) is being used for all OBD’s tests.
I think that ‘IF’ and it is just if at this stage, such a change happened it would have to be from a future date. If nothing else, to give affected companies a chance to prepare. If you went retrospectively what effective date do you pluck out the air? Makes no sense.
Indeed. Dug attempted to claim that his ‘view’ ‘opinion’ ‘assumption’ call it what you will … was a ‘fact’. Well it ISN’T a fact and I challenge him to be big enough to admit that it wasn’t a fact. Just an opinion.
I bet he won’t.
Most posters who do what he has done o no this board the past day or so would be ‘derided as derampers but he’s been given an easy ride.
I think he must’ve bought high and he has DEFINITELY sold low!! It’s a classic PI error to get spooked in this game. But the remarkable thing is his fixation with an area which is not even part of OBD’s short or even medium term strategy! Check out all their presentations for verification.
There are none so blind as those who cannot see.
Didn’t take long for DugWalkers assumptions to be shot down in flames. Because that’s all they were, an opinion, a view, NOT a FACT.
Stating’When the facts change’ was wholly misleading headline in itself and clearly trying to leverage his claim of being a clinical professional to give his VIEW NOT FACT some level of authority. BS!
Dug, put simply if you think the USA gives a fig about what the UK does viz a viz PSE involvement- or not - in a clinical trial you are majorly misguided imho.
To be clear, the UK was not and is not a strategic priority for OBD re the PSE test. They have stated as much. The big bucks are in the States - for now at least. And I don’t hear much mention of ‘Stockholm3’ over the pond.
Your comment about US patients signing a disclaimer when taking PSE because of some perceived omission from a UK trial practically had me falling off my chair with laughter. Seriously?! I’ve spent quite a lot of time in the States and I have gained an understanding of their mentality. For OBD to make the progress they have already to date in the hardest market in the world to crack is phenomenal for such a small company.
Finally OBD have NOT changed their strategy due to your assumptions regarding inclusion in a clinical trial. The plan has always been to prioritise commercialisation in the USA first.
And it’s clearly making progress.
Oh and I noticed that little cluster of sells seconds after the market opened this morning. I’d wager that was probably you right Dug. It registered with me at the time someone was in a bit of a panic to get out!
Oh and you have already repeated your reason for selling in your sequence of replies to every post so it’s going to get pretty tiresome soon if you keep doing it. We’ve got your point. Fair enough it’s your view. IMHO you’ve got it tragically wrong because it’s NOT about the UK and the US truly couldn’t care less what happens over there! Their private sector is its own entity and if their tests can save money and translate to the bottom line….;)
Amica1 - there has been no ‘SP crash’ what utter nonsense. A retrace yes, a gradual slow pullback yes but NO crash.
Now, if you were daft enough to get spiked at 50p+ that’s your problem. And I rather suspect you might’ve been which would explain your saltiness. Furthermore ‘director selling’ oh my word Amica1 🤦🏼♂️Diggle has disposed of a tiny tiny fraction of his shareholding. Almost inconsequential quite frankly. It mean’s nothing. I would concede there have been 9ne or two trading days when the ‘director sells’ (lol) were probably responsible for a fall on the day. But all that does is clarify there are some skittish uninformed )’investors’ out there!
Much like yourself!
Oh and please do go ahead and sell up I’ll have your shares. :)