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@denby69,
Hmm, BIG Question....My thinking is that a crash in the US market would mean that magic thing called confidence would evaporate pretty quickly and without that, all bets are off as to whats affected. Similarly, if the job market goes south here, that will be potentially a bigger problem for Psn and the sector in general than anything we've seen so far. I'm not clever enough to understand the links in global economies but i do think they are more interlinked than ever and confidence or lack of it would cause us real problems. Do i think a crash in the US is likely - I don't know, but I am more nervous than I was, primarily because it seems to me tech sector is doing a lot of heavy lifting and China is an economic and political problem, coupled of course with Russia/Ukraine. It's got the potential to be a toxic mix. That said I am massively (for me) under water here so I am probably more nervous than I should be around the whole stock market at the moment.
For me I see a 3 way split, energy prices and rises in food and rents are really hammering the poorest households.
Homeowner households are hit by rate rises and mortgage costs, but are adjusting how they live and, have accesses to low cost credit, 0% balance transfers etc and many are still on low fixed rate mortgage deals.
At the high end, people with savings are now earning a bit of interest and coupled with low rates on mortgages etc are spending on going out, holidays and eating out. As long as the job market holds, many in the middle and top will be fine.
But please do not believe there aren't an awful lot that are really struggling.
Just my view...GLA.
MikeSO2 - Not disagreeing with points 1 -4 but perhaps this already priced in to current SP - its fallen by over 50% from the highs and as a sector do think some of the doom and gloom is overdone.
I can't comment on what may happen at the end of the year, times too volatile to see past the next week yet alone 6 months! If today stays as a blue day, I will take that!
GLA
@Easy - Perhaps many like me are in for a fair few quid (£30k down for me) here so selling now just locks in that loss. More about losing the battle and winning the war than going down fighting. Its gonna be a long haul obviously but 5 years time or more I gotta believe SP will be considerably higher and if there are some divis along the way that all helps...
GLA...
With today's fall I am now the proud owner of a shed load of PSN shares that are officially worth 50% of what I've paid for them! You gotta laugh, but, am I still topping up as and when i can? Yes I am, the market is crap, PSN isn't and will come good. Admittedly for me it will be years unless I can buy a shed load at these prices to average down, but that means selling other stuff and not really a fan of that (and most of them are in the red too! ) Anyways good luck to all on here that aren't just here to ramp/short or try and spread fear - Its hard enough to make cash these days without all that.
On another note, anyone any views on the BDEV Updates - seem to me to be saying - Ok up to now, forward sales ok but things dropping off due to mortgage market and general uncertainty. Any reason to expect anything different with us? Interesting supply chain issues seem to have eased at least.
GLA
Worth a listen....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0019kks
CSDI - Appreciate your honest and open post. Not sure anyone can really answer your 2 questions sadly. For what its worth I reckon the bottom is £13.50 territory, but i am basing that on gut feel as much as anything. It's all a matter of opinion and choice. PSN hasn't changed, its still the great business it was when you bought in. The market has changed because of factors outside of PSN's or your control. Fortunately, markets come back so it becomes a waiting game, but if you have bought in for the long term as most do, then why worry? you were here for a while anyway. Until you sell, there is no loss. Of course if someone needs the cash for something else and has to sell then yea, thats painful, I can't claim otherwise. I just try and buy the stock at a price I think is worth it, based on holding for a number of years - I will never buy at the bottom and I will never sell at the top unless i am extremely lucky so I just have to go on what I think its worth to me at the time. The one comment I would make is when the market is like this, I don't see much value in looking at the price every day. I know I'm not selling so why depress myself. Some holders even want it to go down further as its a better buy price which is a good way of looking at it perhaps. Obviously if I am looking to top up I keep an eye, but again, I know at anywhere near current levels its a buy for me all day long and its frustrating not having enough ready cash to stick in to be honest. I have my fingers crossed for you that the remaining half of your holding makes up for the 1st half over time. Keep the faith!!
GLA
Humpy - For someone that "Genuinely" doesn't like to be negative, you do an outstanding job of disguising it "Massive wave of financial devastation" - The Daily Mail could use you!
@Wayzgoose - I think the results were ok but as we have seen elsewhere in this market that means you get a slap. Then add in general nervousness around our sector, chuck in a war and cost of living and interest rates rising and then throw in a high yield and fears it may get cut and this is where we are. PSN is a great business and long term I think it very solid with decent prospects but short term we are talking a beating. Where that finishes who knows but I can't think it has much more to go in relation to where we have come from. All we can do is put the tin helmet on, top up where we can and wait. Sure as eggs are eggs, this will come back, and if we can collect some nice divi's along the way then great.
GLA
Papucel - I guess anyone that knows they need their cash out soon and think it will fall further, or, those that can sell now and break even or better and think they can buy back in at a lower price. Agree on face value it seems nuts to sell now but everyone's situation is different. That said, I am still sitting here nursing a £4k loss with no plan to sell and may buy in again, problem is where, I have topped upon the £19's £18's and £17's....only have so much cash to put in this pot! At least my average is coming down :) Did think about selling some AV on the back of their surge after their recent results, but they have slipped back too so think that boats gone. Happy to hold them for the divi though. Perhaps the best advice I can give myself for now is do nothing...
GLA
It's been a great day but lets see where it is at 16.30. Fingers crossed it holds up. The promise of further buybacks should lend support going forward. It's one to primarily hold for the divis, but still nice to have a four figure blue number on my screen for a change - been a tough few months with an awful lot of red...
GLA
As a holder from 2014 and at a price of 17p a share, I am struggling to keep the faith here. Fingers crossed things will improve after Q2 but if not seriously thinking of taking the hit, freeing up some cash to put elsewhere. In times of uncertainty I thought this would do well, but it just doesn't seem to be able to hold on to any upward movement, and whilst I am holding some shares for the divi, this one isn't going to be one of them. Please, someone tell me why I should continue to hold - this far in I really want to see a gain but whilst the markets are like this, there are some real long term bargains out there in my view.
GLA
SteveBT - Couldn't agree more. Everyone wants to buy at the bottom but it rarely happens if we are honest. All you can do is have a price in your head that's right and stick with it. Same applies on exit too. Lost more than a few quid over the years with listening to others telling me hold on it will go higher....
GLA
Impossible to answer for me as the market is all over the place and sentiment rules at the moment. That said, I think any hint of a cut to the divi, and it will get ugly(ier). Then again, guess that could be a great buying opp especially with funds being available from the divi being paid on the 8th....
GLA
Banbury - Yes interesting, I was trying to think through how much of a drop for 2023 is factored in to the current SP. 15-20% is the sort of territory I was in, based on my gauge of the increase in materials prices/labour etc. I still do fear that any cut to the divi will still result in the SP dropping again as some take flight and the media headlines scream. I'm about 25% down but its fine, in for the long haul so will sit and pick up the divis etc, and once I have some pennies will buy again to try and average down a bit - That said I'd rather be 25% up :)
GLA
Where else do you get a large, national and respected survey saying prices GREW by 10.7% over the past 12 months, and 0.3% month on month, where there is an accepted shortage of supply and by historical standards money is still cheap to borrow and no ones is expecting that to change (by historical standards) and yet the price drops 4%. Just shows how sentiment drives the market I suppose. Totally accept prices are slowing but the only thing I see crashing is the share price of the House Builders. And given our infrastructure and manufacturing plant etc I'd say we are better placed than many for any slowdown. Why we seem to be being walloped harder than many is beyond me. Only positive is that if it stays at these levels, it makes reinvesting the divi money due soon a non brainer.
GLA
Oh Mr Market is a curious beast. How the hell those results warrant a 3% drop today is beyond me. All I can say is top up, but then again I've been saying that for what seems like months! Good to see divi confirmed at 110p for July - surely on that alone this is cheap.
GLA