Member Info for devonplay

"Calamari - let’s see. The RNS includes the phrase:- ‘ reorganisation of entities within the Company's group, the sale of the UK business, the sale of certain books of business including a potential de-listing of the Company's shares.’ This means taking private.
Yuri I agree been harder to buy, I have added - although my hesitation cost me."
I own the 7,625% 15 Jan '24's so I might be checking the 'change of ownership clause" later, not been a bad positions so far, bit of capital appreciation and that 7,6%. They were trading over par. Haven't check so far this morning.

"All of these people we shall owe money to though aren't or can't they be paid off out of what Is already left so that if we do get a no vote and AA pull out then we're left owing no one."
Except the Admin, could sell the assets to safisfy the creditors and those buying them (maybe AAL) could get them at an even cheaper price. It's a fire sale at that point...

"What I'm trying to think through is a process whereby we can even at this stage fight fir an outcome better than this AA offer."
You have rights under the Companies Act, the issue you have is expressing them as minority shareholders and the big calculation you need make in terms of the commercial outcome of expressing them.
Lets say you rejected the offer, no other offer is forthcoming. That could reduce your capital even further. If that's what you want fair enough. It's your money.
For what it's worth, if I was convinced there had been irregular illegal activity ( I dont, just commercial risk), then I'd join the ShareSoc (potential) campaign, but I'd recognise that could go on for years without achieving anything.
If you want certainty I'd sell, but you could lose out or at least retain some capita. There's not guarantees with speculative stocks like this, even less when it's at the end of the cash runway.
ps "Apologies if I'm coming across dogmatic." I didn't. I'm interested in Corporate Governance, spend time promoting private share ownership and find high alpha stock that catch the imagination of private investors fascinating.
I

"If we run out of money, lay everyone off and padlock the gates because we have no more money coming in then who ate pur creditors?
Who are the administrators looking to pay off?"
Suppliers, settle termination contracts/agreemeent, employess and HMRC.
What's left then? If an operating business is only worth 3p per share, what would a hole in the ground be worth?
Are you suggesting once they stop spending money on everything else they'll keep spending money on listing and all the costs that implies?
They'd also most likely de-list.
The business (read hole in the ground) could sit there for decades, that's why the II will likely crystaize their positions by voting YES, take their capital and move on.

Hi @15lives
If the company goes into Administration there's a bias to accepting a deal that's offering continuity. That I think is a fair assumption.
In this case we know the likely candidate is already in play. They may ask for futher bids. That's why there's often a premuim offered by acquirers pre-admin. It gives them an amount of certaintity. It also offer the possibility they get it for less.
It's not correct to say you go to the "front of the list", protecting creditors will be the main focus. You remain "in play", until there is a solution offered, but you are also likely to be "locked in". I would be surprised if they didn't suspend trading of ordinary shares.
Restructuring and continuity is exactly the point of Administration. It's not designed to protect sharesholders, but creditors and offer the business the chance of carrying on. That doesn't offer a guarantee to shareholder, but it is intented to offer a route forward for creditors.

"As part of thr contract with JPM would it not have been obvious that our BOD as part of that deal insisted JPM close all their shorts .
JPM shorted this company to death !!!"
You are treating JPM like it's some monolithic slab. There are different areas of the every bank dealing in different financial instruments. They have imperfect "chines walls", but it's not an unusual situation.

"she pointed out that if Sirius had notified the Markets that the was an offer of Funding in December ?"
But if offer couldn't be executed then you'd be creating a false market in the companies shares.
If knowlingly it could never be accepted they could have been charged with misleading creditors (and the markets).
If they were fully financed they might issue a "may or may not notice", but if the offer didn't deal with the concerns they had, running out of cash withing a matter of month, then what would the point be?
If they had, and If the offer then didn't materialise, then it would have just been another red flag indicating the perilous position they are in. The premium offered by AAL might then have been on an even lower share price....

"SH not count for anything anymore"
You've had an offer, so yes you do count.
If the offer doesn't get accepted, or an alternative offer doesn't appear, and the company falls into Administration then you go to the back of the list.
It's a simple as that.

'Agreed IBAB and Skater. It would make a fantastic list of punters susceptible to high risk. A fraudsters dream. Be careful peeps.'
I wonder how may also invested in Quindell..

"I think what's important to remember with administration is that it's not a permanent outcome, but rather administration is a temporary holding point whilst a concrete proposal and plan is arrived at for the continuation of the company."
Like an offer from AAL? Which might not mean a distribution to shareholders?

"Given that they have mentioned impending insolvency in the absence of a deal, the duty is to do the best for creditors."
If they don't then liabilites can fall at the feet of Directors. It's one of those checks and balances that's made the limited liability company one of the most important inventions of the last few hundred years.
Otherwise, liabilities could only fall at the feet of shareholders. So they not only lose their capital, but also their liberty...well, they did back in history lol

"the bod are duty bound to act in the best interests of its shareholders"
That's not the case when they believe they are going to run out of money, then shareholders step behind creditors.
So ask yourself, should they carry on at the cost of suppliers, employees and tax payers if they are going to run out of money or recommend a deal that avoids that default..

"It’s bizarre - I am down from 740 on this stock but for some reason I am not annoyed or worried "
- I'm holding BUR1/ BUR2, happy to do that. You can still buy at below par and there's a c6% yield on offer (BUR2).
Not sure I'm rushing to by the equity, the debt I think has short term merits.
I'm interested in the sector, both as an equity/debt holder and for the potential of crowd-funded litigation (but I'd rather be on the equity side of that particular arrangement). That gives you LTD protection, unlike funding the litigation in some cases.

"how do you go about placenig a short?"
You are basically betting, as however nice you are it's unlikely we are going to lend you stock. LOL
There are several providers, but IG are the obvious place to start.
https://www.ig.com/uk/spread-betting
Trading indices might be a good place to start, once you've built up a portfolio (in my opinion).

"However, not a great boost to the share price which tells me not to get too excited about their prospects."
I'm not worried about the short term price movement, but I'm still interested in the long term prospects.
That might sound blase, but buying exposure to retail bricks and mortar in a bearish market is a high conviction contrarian bet.
I may be wrong, but I'll let you know in 5 years, or so, time. That's the one big advantage we have as private shareholders, we can take longer term positions without having to justify them to anybody but ourselves.
In the interim, happy to depoly the double digit yield into something with different time horizons and prospects.

"i think he'd need to spend most of that on security."
LOL that I don't doubt, or maybe AAL will be picking up the bill. They might just ask for another whip-round....

Surely after this debacle, if the company is stolen by AAL, Fraser cant expect to stay on in the area and run the company, even if AAL want him to.
Doesn't he earn £900k a year? That would insulate you from a lot of local noise.

"Will Anglo (if shareholders vote yes) offer a sweetener? What I mean is would they offer an Anglo American share for every Sirius share a person holds?"
You mean for every 5,5 share you hold in SXX you get a 2,195 share in AAL plus the 5,5 per the Offer?
Let me think about that for a moment.
I doubt it, but you never know.

"sanctimonious rantings of devonplay"
LOL
"have a day off before you really tip yourselves over the edge!"
It does have a kind of burlesque quality hahaha

Hi Fred, I'm sorry you've lost money on this. We've all been there.
I think there's no simple answer to your question about who to believe and what to believe.
I question motives everyday, but I try to stick by one simple rule; Success in this game isn't about making money, but avoiding loses.
Risks should be measured and half your long term "profit" will come from dividend income.
I'd also like to invest in Sirius, I was "short" a few years ago, I've now been watching it for years with the hope that one day there would be a company throwing out either dividends or interest off it's secured senior debt. Until then. anything but short seemed like a high risk punt.
What you decide it only your business. It might still work out. Truth be told, who really knows, but at this stage you can only work on the most likely outcome.