Member Info for Denziiil

LSE Level2 up the duff again.
Offering 48.5 to sell currently.

Frank,
From a Geology perspective, you really expect the gas to have migrated in 40 years?
Highly unusual considering the gas has been locked in for Millions.
Do yourself a favour and research the historical wells across Tapi Aike.
It is really positive for the future drill campaign that they have flowed at high pressure, and suggests an abundance of hydrocarbons on the licence.

Thanks, I had not seen that. It does extend cash flow out then to at least July?
But genuine thoughts are that with LOG having lost a primary lender, IOG will have to look elsewhere to refinance the Harvey loan.

Does not look rosie. (Putting it mildly).
IOG has used funding of £21.07M of £25M loan facilities since February 18 to date, and currently has £2.9M in cash and a further £3.93M undrawn.

All things being equal IOG are burning cash at approximately £1.75M per month.

Unfortunately that’s the good part.
The final £15 million funding package secured from LOG on 13 September 2018, post period end, is principally to fund the Harvey appraisal well.

It’s been spent. Well most of it. They have not done it.
Speculate on the outcome of their loan agreement, but I would have thought that IOG could be in breach if the loan was on the premise of principally funding Harvey drill.

There is a very possible outcome now that the £3.93M outstanding on the loan facility will not be forthcoming.
If that is the case the co is out of cash Mid April.....

As to what happens next, there are 3 likely outcomes, and the most likely is that the BOD are about to raise in the markets and dilute the shares massively.
Sadly I don’t think the BOD have any intention of letting the assets go cheap to Rockrose, and so rather than seeing 25p a share, p.i.s are looking at 9-10p.

The existing BOD don’t care, they have absolutely zilch skin in the game.

House anomalies aside, the future of the co depends on a farm-in.
I can’t honestly see who’s the potential suitor here?

Don’t forget the £100M approx cash build that will have happened during the 6 months to end june, by the time RRE is out of suspension.

Cash was taken from unrestricted cash accruals notified purely on RRE rns basis.

Difficult to tell Ricky from the info available. Was trying to keep it simple and figured the lift from 11,200 to 23,000 bopd was reasonable to assume double.
Apologies if oversimplified, but I bet not too far off.

Sorry should have read cash build plus buy back over 3 months. not 3M!

I think you’re way too low Ricky,
At 1st January rns, $11.2M cash build plus $20M buyback over 3M. Total $31.2M(£24.79M)
Annual £99.15M.

Double the figures above since first of Jan, puts us on £200M p/a cash build.
Even if you did 2x multiple that’s £400M mcap.(£32.40/share)

86Mmboe reserves at above mcap only values at $6.5/bboe, which is very, very low.

That being said, I think we see £25 fairly quickly, and the market will take a while to catch up.

Anyone looking for a comparison, look at SQZ.
2P 63.7 mmboe.
23000 boepd production
Mcap £330M.

production 11,200 now 23,000 boepd.

Reserves 2p 36 Mmboe + 2c 15M. Total 52M
Now 2p 70M + 2C 16M. Total 86M

Unrestricted cash 1st Jan £54.1M . Will have further increased cash build by £100M end june. (Increase of cash the size of current MCAP alone.)

And not accounting for decoms adds £200M cash p/a ongoing.

This doubles on reopening minimum, and north handsomely thereafter imo.

No problem. Take with a pinch of salt, but just pointing that the headline figure is huge until everything else factored in. Even if decoms higher, still a great deal.

correct Rookie, as at 31st December 17, Marsthon accounts show DSA liabilities at $729M (note Us dollars)
Further to this as we are buying all shares in Marathon we also take all cash & working capital, which i think is $300M. But then you have to net back what we are paying for the companies.
Finally there will be a 40% tax credit on all DSAs from UK standpoint.
It’s difficult to totally fix an amount for DSAs here, but as an honest guess taking everything else into account.
$2-300M.

DSA looks like $878m gross. Net of 40p in £ rebate= $526m.
Paid via net working capital adjustment $210m so net liability is $316m.
30m barrels should spin out at spots >$1bn of free cash flow. Net to RRE cumulative $684m free cash flow.

Marathon has made a $350m contribution to decommissioning costs but some of that is still some way down the line. With sizeable cash flows the bulking up of RRE can now seriously begin and this looks like a good enough starter pack for such a process.

The bad news for shareholders is that with this being a reverse takeover under the UK listing rules the shares have to be suspended until completion, prospectus or the deal not going ahead, in my view around three months. The good news is that the shares should emerge a fair bit higher on the back of this news, rewarding investors for patience.

Malcy of the opinion that AA's buying spree will continue.

RRE is the next RRE as of this morning.

Posting thanks to Here&There Twitter.

#RRE dsa look like $878m gross. Net of 40p in £ rebate= $526m.
Paid via net working capital adjustment $210m so net liability is $316m.
30m barrels should spin out at spots >$1bn of free cash flow.
Net to u cumulative $684m free cash flow. Transformational I think. Think correct!

With Marathon assets acquisition date set at 1 January 2019, we are now producing 24,000 bopd. Free cash flow at these levels will be worth c$200M per annum. And with a price tag of $140M, it certainly looks like by completion early H2, assuming July 1st, Rockrose will have speculative cash levels in the region of $160M.
Depending on development plan of current projects, we may need interim funding to cover, but as this rate it may entirely be possible that all purchase costs are covered by existing cashflows.
Very exciting.

Its a bloody shame where we are and I'm among those who have lost a lot of money.
This has always been about Tapi Aike, everything else is noise. I am adding today.