Member Info for Denziiil

http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
check box for pellets premium

fe65 pellets premium on fire $243.3/t.
our C1 $40.90/t

Would you look at that!

Hi Sr1,
Div was 13.2c and 589M shares
=£57.2M

No you had it right first time. ;)

Over $330 cash build in H2, of which $155 was paid out in dividends.
Ferrexpo appear to have a cash problem. :)

Planning on saving up 2 years worth of tax first before attempting.
For now though with the uptick dividend to 13.2 USc, assuming it is maintained across all four dividend dates, is a gross dividend of 11%, which is fantastic.

At current FE65 prices and EBITDA £1155M p/annum by my calcs.
Cash increases relative to share price at 3.7p/week.
No brainer.

I have been trying to reasonably value the company, as I am sure most here, and I would be really happy for anyone to comment on my calcs for discrepancies.

To note I have left off the pellet premium which is huge, currently standing at $45, and makes an incredible difference to EBITDA when added. However I have gone through company accounts and it does not appear to be reflected in the company sales prices. Ferrexpo have some reports on Premium pellet prices, & it seems the premium spot price to China runs at on average a $20 discount.


H1,20 revenue $776M, Fe 65 price $105.90/t,
Average C1 cash cost (US$/t) $40.9/t.
Generated Underlying EBITDA $352M

Jan 21 Fe pellet price $185/t,
an uplift from $65/t achieved to $144/t,

Based on multiple of 144/65 *$352M
=$779M EBITDA for 6 months.
=$1560M p/annum
=£1155M p/annum
For valuation purposes
x4=$6.2B or £4.6B
shares in issue 589M.
Share price £4.6B/589M = £7.80

Final note: standard valuation for similar miners runs at an av of 4 to 6 x EBITDA. So I have chosen to cautiously look at the lower end of the valuation spectrum
Also again without discussions on pellet premiums.

https://the-international-investor.com/investment-faq/reclaiming-withholding-tax-foreign-dividends
Learning the process myself as have failed to follow up on the last dividend paid.
However the next dividend paid, the Swiss will withhold over £5k.
Will let you know how I get on Hazey. Likewise appreciated if you have success.

Well its Lucky we are not in Africa then Lucky.
Company is headquartered in Switzerland and pays a decent taxes in Ukraine, plus supports local community.
It is more Zhivago's antics that have previously rocked the boat. I would hope he will be too happy counting his cash in future to mess around.

Unvr,
Valuation should be 4-6 x Ebitda for peer comparison, £10/ share.
Very long mine life, and progressive management team, big dividend player, incredible cash build.
However, regional risk/ major shareholder risk, iron ore prices settling.
Would comfortably like to see double where we are now.

But it will.

H1,20 revenue $776M, Fe 65 pellet price $105.90/t,
Average C1 cash cost (US$/t) $40.9/t.
Generated Underlying EBITDA $352M

Now imagine what current Fe pellet price $225/t, an uplift from $65/t achieved to $184/t, does to the bottom line?
H1 EBITDA $352M.
Going forward 6 monthly EBITDA $996M.
C$2B per annum.
FXPO should be multiples of current valuation.

Anyone worrying about £3 should look at the company position.
https://www.ferrexpo.com/system/files/uploads/financialdocs/2020-half-year-results.pdf

It’s a guessing game, but this year not when, but how much?

7 Dec 17 special div. 3.3USc
6 Dec 18 special div. 6.6USc
2 Jan 20 special div. 6.6USc

I think there was a lot of smaller deals out there that were no longer interesting to Rockrose, but extremely interesting for a new entry. Not expecting a deal pre xmas though Duster.
First deal and straight into suspension anyone?

Not going to happen Duster, it’s going to be producing asset, with decoms, take cash, extend life, dividends, and repeat.

Makes sense, I did wonder why I few names were missing.

Anyone any thoughts as to why we tanked so hard today?

arrived yesterday in my share centre account Luciano.

Unfortunately all of the after hours trades are bull**** across a raft of shares. They won’t stand up on Monday. Picked through my watchlist, and plenty showing wild trades after close.

Don't worry AIMto I had £4k of GGP at .68p & £20k 1.2p, sold the lot at 2p.
Was very happy with my gain at the time, but f me!
I didn't buy into GH or the story enough.