RE: Where does this share go next?2 Apr 2020 16:27
Trump is a buffoon, so we should take whatever he says with a large pinch of salt. He's hyping up expectations for his domestic audience which includes the Shale oil drillers. He also refers to "they / them .... making a deal" in recognition that there's little he (the US) can do to influence any deal. So, if it's down to Russia and SA to agree a deal, what are the benefits for them in agreeing to reduce production ?. Well, if they do, the POO won't fly back up to $50, it will probably stay quite low for the simple reason that there's no demand out for the time being + there's a surplus of oil in storage which is quickly 'closing in' on capacity. As a result Russia & SA will end up gaining very little extra revenue with the slightly higher price being offset by less barrels being sold. In the meantime, shale drillers in the US will still be producing as much oil as they can get out of the ground whilst being kept in business by the somewhat higher POO. Surely better for Russia / SA to keep pumping more oil and sell cheaply to drive down US production to the point where the Shale drillers really feel the pain and many start to fall into bankruptcy. Once they do, the POO will naturally start to pick up anyway as the US levels of production falls significantly, and giving Russia / SA much more control of the market than they have at present. They've tried to destroy US shale in the past (without success) but many things are now in their favour and they have a real chance (too much oil + no demand for oil + shale driller heavily leveraged) to put the US oil industry in its place. IMO, I don't think they'll miss this once in a lifetime opportunity. What do you all think?.