Investors Chronicle3 Jan 2018 07:53
And if 2017 was the year the mining industry jumped on to the EV bandwagon, 2018 is set to be the year where serious capital is allocated. One particularly interesting example of this is Bacanora Minerals (BCN), an Alternative Investment Market (Aim)-traded lithium explorer that has just published a defined feasibility study (DFS) for its flagship project in Sonora, Mexico.
BCN:LSE
Bacanora Minerals Ltd
1mth
Today change
0.00% Price (GBP)
106.50
The headline numbers are enticing. Although Bacanora’s market capitalisation sits at £150m, Sonora has a net present value of $1.25bn, an internal rate of return of 26.1 per cent and life-of-mine operating costs of $3,910 per tonne, putting the project in the lowest quartile of the industry cost curve. As any early-stage mining investor knows, the key question now concerns how much equity must be given up – and at what price – to fund initial capital costs of $420m.
On that front, the early indications are very good: two days after the DFS was published, Chinese technology fund NextView Capital agreed to pay £31.2m for a 19.9 per cent stake in the group, by way of a non-dilutive placement of 33m shares at 94.5p a pop. In return, NextView gets a seat on the board and a guaranteed initial offtake of 5,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate per year. This strategic agreement follows the April sale of a 10 per cent stake, again at market price, to Japanese trading house Hanwa
IC View
While it is tempting to buy into Glencore’s grand strategy, its sway within nickel does not match its dominance in markets such as zinc. Furthermore, ambitions to double cobalt output requires hiccup-free trading in the Democratic Republic of Congo, one of the world’s most politically-fraught mining jurisdictions. And no large diversified miner, Glencore included, can claim to be a ‘pure play’ investment in EV technology. Bacanora, though a lot less diversified, is much more geared to the trend, even if its share price remains capped ahead of a funding package, expected before next summer. A mixture of cheap Japanese bank finance, recent placing prices, and the support of existing institutional shareholders such as M&G and BlackRock, could help ensure minority interests are not too badly hit, but at 106p we pause our original buy call (86p, 10 September 2015) ahead of the 2018 financing. Hold.
Last IC View: Buy, 92p, 11 Apr 2017