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Hi all,
Anyone else find our current valuation strangely low given Pfizer announcement increased their valuation by $27bn and on a day when one of our main competitors falls by the wayside with their share price dropping by $3bn and we only increase by a measly £30m to £413m!!
I do wonder are there still background buyers or if the price is being deliberately suppressed by A trades to ensure if approved pi's would be more than happy to get £8-£10 (£2bn mcap) which is lower than the price drop today for Adagio which wasn't as advanced as us in clinical trials and without including any valuation on asthma or COPD. Might just be my imagination but something smells fishy....
I could be wrong but hopefully we are ready to present the results for this and that is why it is updated. We had 5 recruited of the 15 in Feb and needed to wait 6 months from recruitment/completion of trial to complete analysis as per the submission. It shows as H2 2021 as one of the updates we are waiting for I think...
Hi all,
I don't post here often but am invested and for me it is very clear by the thread titles alone that some have alterior motives to try and get the share price down further (and will of course protest that this is not the case) but the reality for me is
1.) No meaningful news in a very long time which has been a huge disappointment and has had a large impact on sentiment and price. I suspect covid may be having an impact on trial timelines and the BOD may have been a bit naive with the timelines provided earlier this year as everything will take longer.
2.) There hasn't actually been any negative news that I am aware of and in fact we have funding until the end of next year at least (q4 based on 1st tranche drawdown).
3.) Whilst SO has been selling (driven by a huge loss on forte) the reality is his shareholding is still larger than this time last year (15.9m v 15.6m shares) + he has millions of warrants now as part of Nasdaq launch and as such pi's have driven much of the decline.
4.) No matter what anyone thinks A trades have controlled this share for well over a year and as such they have been making money on the way up and down on numerous occasions. I do wonder are they playing the long game to suppress the price prior to a takeover / value creation event but probably just me dreaming :).
What I do know is that over the next 3/6/12/18 months we will know exactly where we are with Blautix (only worry is any partner may want to wait given covid ) / MRX0518 (multiple readouts and I just have a feeling that the next RNS on this could be a game changer as they are zoning in on which patients get the greatest benefit) /Asthma & vaccine collaborations (presentation was tweaked in last iteration and would presume by summer we will know where we are).
All we need is one shot on goal and we will be many multiples of current share price and if more than one then I can only imagine what the takeover price will be. Obviously current SP is disappointing but for me the risk reward is now much greater so will be adding next week to bring down my 92p average.
Happy Sunday everyone :)
The below is from the September presentation... if 2k then each 10k equates to 20m revenues which will be ready should an EUA be granted.
Increasing manufacturing capacity
• This will provide tens of thousands of treatment courses should an EUA be
granted
• Multiple commercial scale drug substance batches have been completed by
Akron
• Multiple commercial scale batches of prefilled glass syringes have been
filled by Catalent
• Commercial scale blow fill seal run with Woodstock Sterile Solutions is
underway (formerly a Catalent site)
• Potential to increase capacity to ~100,000 treatment courses per month.
– Government support required to accomplish this larger scale of manufacturing
operation
Hi all, just wanted to say a huge congrats and now that we have approval this investment is largely de-risked which is great news. I decided pre approval I would sell 50% once approved (got 89p which was delighted with) as am new to investing and as such wanted to "bank" some upside to buy a dip in another stock on my watchlist but fully expect this to re-rate above £ in the coming weeks.
I don't post often but just wanted to thank you guys as is generally a great bb although there will always be those who sold in the 60's recently trying to get back in as cheap as possible :)
July-Nov DHSC Spend looks like £143.5m according to the reports so would assume the large November number is probably for November & December July 9.9m Aug 6.5m Sep1.3m Oct 33.3m Nov 92.4m ...Am not sure is these are inc. or ex. vat
No worries Wilson and thanks for the tip as am new to twitter :)
Harchris was wondering the same myself and live in Ireland and will take bloody ages to vaccinate everyone at the rate we are going so think the pragmatic approach will be to remove hotel quarantine for everyone who has the vaccine but to be safe this year they may need to do 1 test so as to protect the local population who either have not had vaccine or where it doesn't work especially as new variants keep popping up...just did the spreadsheet to get a feel of what the potential market is like as didn't realize the number of outbound uk trips which was huge and also thought the margins in the private sector should also be larger than the NHS.
Hi all, I have been reading the board with interest the last few weeks and have purchased as strongly believe there will be a strong bounce in the SP. Will continue to lurk in the background but thought I would contribute something for a change as have done a forecast on usage for 2021 in NHS and travel that you may find of interest as genuinely think the market has got too caught up re LFT's which have their place without understanding that the PCR market will grow significantly in 2021. Apologies as don't know how to post link but the info is on @Debarra5 on twitter . I think I am being conservative with numbers which are 46% growth in NHS on 2020 (assuming a 40% decline on PCR tests v the last 7 days as cases continue to drop) & a travel PCR market that is equal to the whole 2020 NHS usage assuming 30% of 2019 numbers with 2 inbound PCR tests / 1 outbound. Even 15% of travelers equates to 50% of 2020 NHS usage.
I genuinely believe if we get a share of both markets then the current price will not be here for long and with growth outside U.K. & a game changing antibody LFT I am hoping for a very happy couple of months. Anyway many thanks
for all your research on here as think there are many like myself lurking in the background :)
Is it normal to have 3.8m of a sale in 2 trades as presumed RG was close to being out now ? scratching my head here as must be a transfer of shares between parties as that volume is huge...hopefully we will see an RNS..
This is my largest holding by a good distance and being honest is concerning me as looks like 31m shares for $14.6m (less debt) which we always new about , 26.6m warrants for $29m (78p at .7164 exchange rate...why not at £1.10??) & upto an additional 65m shares (probably at £1.10 price) so in essence we could go from 131m shares to 253m shares for circa £102m at an effective price of 84p per share for the additional shares. I know we have a massive pipeline, are trading at a fraction of our peers and is expensive to run trials but this is potentially close to a 50% dilution in shares. I would genuinely be interested in people's views on this as I maybe missing something?
cheers Blessed...I stated in the post that I excluded any other value outside of covid for the calculations for simplicity as understand could also have huge potential value...
Hi guys, I have a small holding of 4k shares but am thinking of increasing my investment and have been playing around with some numbers to understand the potential market size & value subject to gaining approval as not much else to be doing in the middle of a pandemic :).
I would be really interested in people's opinions as not an expert as my assumptions are showing a valuation of between $625m and $5bn with a special dividend of between $78m & $625m (the initial stock purchase going straight to governments is paid as a dividend) and excludes any other value outside of Covid play. I have tried to keep the assumptions on the low side but would really appreciate your opinions
1.) Have used the US as the base for assumptions being 330m population - 40m contracted covid already (as some will not have had a covid test ) - 207m who will get the vaccine (75% take up with 95% efficacy) = 83m that can catch Covid in the future (have assumed you can't catch a second time after a vaccine).
2.) Total global market is 3 times the states (83*3 = 252m) given the costs of the treatment and as such will probably be only the most developed countries that can afford it.
3.) 2.5% or 5% of the 252 million catch it annually (6.3-12.6m) - really interested in what your views are here as it should be much harder to catch it given the amount of people who have either had it or caught the vaccine.
4.) Between 2.5% and 10% of people catching covid actually get an intervention (I have absolutely no idea here as have a finance background and am not sure is it only if it looks like you could get more seriously ill that you are given the treatment) = 0.157m to 1.26m people receiving an intervention
5.) SNG market share is 20% ( understand p2 results were excellent but the big players will also be in the market as think GSK have a p3 live also ) so SNG market between 31k and 250k treatments per annum
6.) 2.5k margin for the initial stock to governments with volumes at 1 year's stock contingency.
5.) Higher than normal margins at 33% $1,000 for annualised sales as think this will be the hottest ticket in town and as such royalty rates in the high teens accompanied with large milestone payments should give a bigger share of the pie than normal.
6.) Market Cap is based on 20x the margins in 5 above for simplicity
Lowest valuation based on 2.5% of non immune population (252m) catching covid annually * 0.5% (2.5% getting treatment * 20% SNG share) of those receiving SNG treatment would result in stockbuild sales of $78m and a market cap of $625m (31k annual treatments * 1,000 *20)
Highest valuation based on 5% of non immune population (252m) catching covid annually * 2% (10% getting treatment * 20% SNG share) of these receiving SNG treatment would result in stockbuild sales of $800m and a market cap of $5bn valuation ( 250k treatments * 1000 *20) !!!
Are these reasonable assumptions assuming SNG gain approval, vaccine works, lasts for years and m
sorry guys...I thought I was in the SNG chat group...
Hi guys, I have a small holding of 4k shares but am thinking of increasing my investment and have been playing around with some numbers to understand the potential market size & value subject to gaining approval as not much else to be doing in the middle of a pandemic :).
I would be really interested in people's opinions as not an expert as my assumptions are showing a valuation of between $625m and $5bn with a special dividend of between $78m & $625m (the initial stock purchase going straight to governments is paid as a dividend) and excludes any other value outside of Covid play. I have tried to keep the assumptions on the low side but would really appreciate your opinions
1.) Have used the US as the base for assumptions being 330m population - 40m contracted covid already (as some will not have had a covid test ) - 207m who will get the vaccine (75% take up with 95% efficacy) = 83m that can catch Covid in the future (have assumed you can't catch a second time after a vaccine).
2.) Total global market is 3 times the states (83*3 = 252m) given the costs of the treatment and as such will probably be only the most developed countries that can afford it.
3.) 2.5% or 5% of the 252 million catch it annually (6.3-12.6m) - really interested in what your views are here as it should be much harder to catch it given the amount of people who have either had it or caught the vaccine.
4.) Between 2.5% and 10% of people catching covid actually get an intervention (I have absolutely no idea here as have a finance background and am not sure is it only if it looks like you could get more seriously ill that you are given the treatment) = 0.157m to 1.26m people receiving an intervention
5.) SNG market share is 20% ( understand p2 results were excellent but the big players will also be in the market as think GSK have a p3 live also ) so SNG market between 31k and 250k treatments per annum
6.) 2.5k margin for the initial stock to governments with volumes at 1 year's stock contingency.
5.) Higher than normal margins at 33% $1,000 for annualised sales as think this will be the hottest ticket in town and as such royalty rates in the high teens accompanied with large milestone payments should give a bigger share of the pie than normal.
6.) Market Cap is based on 20x the margins in 5 above for simplicity
Lowest valuation based on 2.5% of non immune population (252m) catching covid annually * 0.5% (2.5% getting treatment * 20% SNG share) of those receiving SNG treatment would result in stockbuild sales of $78m and a market cap of $625m (31k annual treatments * 1,000 *20)
Highest valuation based on 5% of non immune population (252m) catching covid annually * 2% (10% getting treatment * 20% SNG share) of these receiving SNG treatment would result in stockbuild sales of $800m and a market cap of $5bn valuation ( 250k treatments * 1000 *20) !!!
Are these reasonable assumptions assuming SNG gain approval, vaccine works, lasts for y
Hi Hunsen, looks like we have found the bottom which is great as had a small top up this week and looking forward to H1 re-rate and subject to gaining European approval on Chronocort would love to see a U.S. tie up at multiples of the Eton deal given a much bigger market...I am in DDDD also as is my largest holding and think once the bots/shorts finish it will have a huge re-rate with nasdaq listing, hopefully phase 3 partnership on IBS announcement and oncology phase 2 expansion to name but a few of the areas they are working on with a couple of thousand patents. Worth a read on their website as they claim to be the industry leader yet have a mcap roughly 1 tenth of Seres who are listed on Nasdaq (hence why I am excited about the nasdaq listing). Obviously DYOR especially if comes from me as am a novice :)
Hi, I purchased using degiro a couple of months ago (1.2m shares) and tried to top up over the last couple of weeks given the great price and was unable to so contacted them and they emailed "what I can tell you is that this product has been removed from our platform due to an internal decision by our risk department who no longer wish to be exposed to positions in this product. Therefore it is no longer possible to increase positions in this product on our platform unfortunately." It wasn't easy purchasing initially as I saw a number of posts online about it in relation to degiro. My presumption is it is due to the volatility as I also had issues with amigo initially and ended up having to use the frankfurt exchange to purchase or might have something to do with me being in Ireland so probably best to try a different platform...