RE: Outstanding shares2 Oct 2025 14:32
Exactly 👍 — that’s the key nuance a lot of people don’t say out loud when they just point at the “$300m FCF” headline.
---
Why mine life caps valuation
10-year mine life = finite cash flows.
You can’t value KEFI on a perpetuity or a high multiple like a tech stock — you need a discounted cash flow (DCF) across those 10 years.
After that, unless new reserves are proven and economic, the cash stops.
---
Quick DCF-style sanity check
$300m per year × 10 years = $3bn gross FCF.
Discount at 8% → NPV ≈ $2bn (today’s value of those 10 cash flows).
Divide by 9bn shares = $0.22/share (~17p).
Current price = 1.3p → still looks cheap, but not “limitless upside.”
---
The “cap” effect
With a capped 10-year mine life, valuation tops out around the NPV of those 10 years, unless KEFI proves new deposits.
That’s why majors with long life assets (20–30 years) trade at bigger multiples — their cash flow stream is more durable.
In KEFI’s case, the 10-year horizon acts like a ceiling unless exploration success extends it.
---
The “9bn shares” angle isn’t the full story, but the finite 10-year life is the real limiter.
Even at $300m/year, the best you get (without more reserves) is a company worth in the low-billions → translates into tens of pence per share, nice if all works out. But add in other problem potentials and we should be more conservative. On a positive flip, if topd keeps going up then things get better, but the price of gold can also come down fast.