The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I don't like to work with time frames, just look at events,real facts and check if my scenario of conditions is fulfilling or not.
Toscanfund should increase the most they can while SP is below BV but they cannot buy quickly because the share is not very liquid and spikes with just few buy orders.
IMHO They are working for takeover months ago aiming to be ready before next Spring/Summer' 2021.
He is not required to communicate shares lending.
Neither at LSE nor any market in the world.
Who doesn't see that Mr. X% is lending shares is because is blind or has not idea about Corporate deals.
Oil going up and TLW going down.
Every plunge is followed by Mr. X% increase and every spike after his RNS is followed with more shorts.
He provides the food for the shorts, he's lending and hedging his shares, both things.
We will have a new RNS from Toscafund very soon.
Auson, very interesting what you say... could you give us more detail please ?
There are at this moment two similar situations Tullow and Ted Baker, this last one with Toscafund increasing every day and now 15.5%.... same strategy, same handbook.
Yes he is hedging for sure and with that controls the price at the bottom for a low ball bid.
Mr X%, and I call him X% because we cannot know exactly his total interest (of course greater than declared) is very probably acting as man in the middle for a big corporation as could be Total (you can research very easily his historical links with the frenchies and Total).
zahirmiahoutlook: Of course the brand has an important value as goodwill, it is why IMHO they will offer a premium on BV. However a brand without a good financial structure or management gets deteriorated which is the case and such weakness is gonna be exploited by the offeror to take it over with important discount on potential value.
zahirmiahoutlook: I don't think 800p.
Low ball bid with a premium on current book value (discounting 54 million inventories writedown).
450p-470p
Yes, it is the range 450-470
IMHO They should do both things... extend and more cuts... there are a lot of shorts in the oil market because uncertainty and they should skeeze them out.
They should announce new production cuts very soon!
The excuse they need to cut production strongly ))
We will see it very soon...
Based on RNS Toscafund is owning 15.5% interest with average price 337p.
Take your own conclusions.
The acquisition scheme is more focused to get certain percentage stake than the average price itself:
DATE % ACQUIRED % ACC. INTEREST SHRES AVG PRICE VALUE ACC. VALUE ACC. SHARES AVERAGE
06/12/2019 5.90% 5.90% 2,629,435 3.929 10,331,048.74 10,331,048.74 2,629,435 3.929
10/12/2019 6.00% 11.90% 2,674,001 3.045 8,140,997.08 18,472,045.82 5,303,436 3.483
11/12/2019 0.70% 12.60% 311,967 3.640 1,135,559.24 19,607,605.06 5,615,403 3.492
03/02/2020 0.80% 13.40% 356,534 2.498 890,442.45 20,498,047.51 5,971,936 3.432
05/02/2020 0.70% 14.10% 311,967 2.774 865,395.97 21,363,443.47 6,283,903 3.400
07/02/2020 1.40% 15.50% 623,934 3.116 1,944,177.24 23,307,620.71 6,907,837 **3.374**
Ray 35%
Tuscafund 15.1%
Total 50.1%
They have majority to grant Takeover for delisting the company at Shareholders General Meeting
It is a matter of days the takeover
Bid likely to be 25% premium above 3 months average ... 460p
Tuscafund holding already 14.1% and they will repeat same history they did with Redrow:
Steve Morgan, the chairman of Redrow, triggered a rally in housebuilding shares yesterday as he tabled a £562m proposal to take the company he founded nearly 40 years ago private.
Mr Morgan – worth £410m and the owner of the Championship football club Wolverhampton Wanderers – already owns 40 per cent of Redrow, which he began in 1974. He is teaming up with Martin Hughes' Toscafund, owner of 14 per cent of the shares, as well as the private equity firm Penta Capital for the 152p a share bid.
Again Toscafund increased from 13.4% to 14.1% on February 5th.
Anyone aware of this?