RE: Where to from here?25 Apr 2021 02:06
PT1
18.02 - Spent quite a few years as a programme director, looking after a number of projects and therefore teams a PM...so as I said, you're full of questions but not great at putting logic into plan and balancing a view. So I guess I'll have to do it for you, again something I'm used to but firstly I'll berate you for poor imprecise questions as I do my minions.
"What is your taken the likely SP trend?" - Over what time frame? When you say likely you mean balance of probability as clearly it won't go continuously up or continuously down.
"What is your take on DW leaving and being replaced by a bean counter" - Its a company, these things happen. So you should have worked out from your research that DW was brought in to redefine, recapitalise and redevelop opportunities. He's a business, relationship and risk developer which he has effectively done that over 7 years. He funded and entered project Icewine with Burgundy with PB, SS et al. He increased WI participation after another institution pulled out, bought more acres, entered a number of other prospects such as Yukon, Winx, bought XCD for Peregrine, bought the Umiat field. He's fostered a relationship is Erik Opstad who is generally regarded as probably the best and most experience ops manager in Alaska. we have Icewine (which includes Charlie-1 Seabee and torok, central leases with possibly Kaparuk and SMD and we have derisked the HRZ), Yukon to be consolidated with one of Erik's companies, we have Peregrine with Merlin and Harrier that if commercial to link to the Umiat acquisition reserves. The company has its prospects, land and development options now in place. I think there's limited appetite or ability for the company to look for additional risk. Nows the time to run through the process steps to get these to a saleable package. A CFO with solid experience and 4 years with the company at DW side is a pretty reasonable prospect.
DW has concentrated on 88E in that 7 years but his skillset has completed the task sort. I'm also sure he wants a change and capitalise on other opportunities for himself which as a company director be may have been precluded from during his tenure. Of course you'll never know the full details.
" What do you think is the likelihood of the company being taken over" - again over what timeframe and again do you mean balance of probabilities? Do you distinguish in your mind between takeover in a success case or a failure case? Would it make a difference and why do you care? - But yes, I think they will get taken over (but not tomorrow however before the sun explodes) for a number of key reasons - primarily, until we have evidence to the contrary, it's what they have always said = fine, prove up and sell secondly, its a pond consolidated to very big fish and always will be as sizeable discovery assets diminish, the big bought have deep pockets and what else can they do to maintain they long term mission even if they are gradually looking to di
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