Member Info for dazzle1000

Hmmm.... oh contrary you fool of a took..it is you being disrespectful concidering the late paul basinski used a quote from winston so plz jog on and stop disrespecting me and the late paul basinski and others who were inspired by these words... paul basinski I love quotes - another Edison quote: “I failed my way to success” (I’m the living embodiment of that) Thomas Jefferson: “The harder I work, the luckier I get” (and guess what - that’s the secret!) Winston Churchill: “If you’re going through hell, keep going” (Churchill was right! We’ve been doing plenty of this talking about the stock price) So - we are moving forward with this, and we are very very excited - and we’re really looking forward to clarifying some of the questions and uncertainty you have............. ( self evident of some posters and there disrespectful motives shame on you hmmm...You've been called out for the muppet that you are.. plz look up the word respect before berating others ) dazzle

To quote the Man himself winston churchill " success is not final, failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." .... what ever you think if winston, his strategic endeavors in WW2 are legendary....think of cracking the enigma code and operation dynamo at dunkirk..... their will be many variables and outcomes that will test the resovle of those who have the courage to stay the course.... but never loose sight of the prize.....best regards dazzle

Garrym79 wpuld be good also to remind people the type of ceramic proppant that can with atand upto 10000psi to hold open the fractures big clue really ; -) best regards dazzle

Dave Wall: The other thing that can happen as well is, say 75 barrels came. We still got 10 years on most of those leases. We'd go and look at the conventional, and potentially, there'd be a technological advancement which would mean that we'd be able to come back and say, "Well, actually, those guys were only getting 75 barrels and now they're getting 200. Maybe we can apply that technology." That's the thing at the moment, the way that technology is advancing not just in oil and gas but in every field, it's pretty phenomenal. That's something that doesn't mean the project is 100% dead. It might be dormant, so it would push out that timeframe we're talking about.

We would have to drill another well to prove to the market and execute the job again effectively. We probably wouldn't have the information that we needed to drill a horizontal because 60% of the fracture didn't work with stimulation. That would push the timeframe out. We had permanent sites that we can drill additional wells from the pad, so we could fast track that. Obviously, there'd be some dilution associated with that, and possibly at lower prices depending on the market's reaction. That's one scenario. It's really about understanding why it didn't work. If we effectively fractured 100% of it and it still flowed at 75, that would probably be the end of that for the time being because you probably need much higher oil prices to justify spending more money on something that we think has questionable economic value given what we know about the above ground cost, structures, and everything else on the slope.

Dave Wall: Let's go through a couple of scenarios which I think will help clarify how that will play out if it does get to that. Say we got 75 barrels a day which is okay, not great. If we could understand that the reason why we got 75 barrels a day is because 60% of the stimulated interval had just not worked because there'd been a blockage or something had gone wrong, then, we go, "Okay. Well, if we could frack 100%, then that 75 barrels in that context looks pretty good." The market would be going, "Hmm, I don't know. You guys, we don't trust you so much anymore because you didn't execute properly." That's why things sometimes go wrong.

Dave Wall: No. I know that people want us to say yes but, really, the 50% is based on our calculation of risk and also our estimation of uncertainty which is not actually very hard to estimate. Changing the design doesn't actually change any of that. What it does is increases the potential to maximize the flow rate, but it doesn't tell us whether it is going to flow and whether the fracture is going to remain open and how the rock is going to behave and all those things that we will never understand until we actually drill the well. Until we get new information, we can't change our assessment of the risk or uncertainty. 50-50 on a few billion barrels, so pretty good in my book. Obviously, if it doesn't come in, we'll still be villains even though we do try to highlight the risk to everyone and make sure people understand. That's one of the reasons why we're to here, to say that if you flip a coin, and this is not a coin flip because this isn't a chance because there's a lot of work that has gone into this. When it boils down to it, it might not work. There's a 50% chance that it's going to be a lot of value destruction here. Don't worry, the next answer will be more optimistic.

We know that if we're going to find something here, the definition that we can see on the 2D means that these things are big, but they still have quite a high risk associated with them. 3D could potentially, we might say the chance of success on drilling one of these, just one of the conventional not the stacked leads, is maybe in the order of 10%, 15%. With 3D, we could probably improve that to maybe 35% or 40% where we are

Dave Wall: I guess just in terms of there's an unspoken question in there is like, "What happens if we had success operationally?" We did touch up on this. Really, the plan would be to try to accelerate the appraisal of the project as quickly as we could. We had started permitting additional wells in this project which could be drilled as soon as the first quarter or second quarter of next year. That would likely be another follow-up well to Icewine-2 as a horizontal well from the pad to show that here's a vertical well that flowed at 150 barrels. Here's a horizontal well that flowed at two-and-a-half thousand barrels. Therefore, theory proven and we've shown that that relationship is real. Even though empirical evidence shows it works in other plays, it doesn't mean it's going to work for us, but we can prove that, so we'd aim to do that.

Stephen staley: As we get to the west, if you look at Bravo and Charlie, the size of those both net to 88 Energy, over 200 million barrels each. There's a potential there to drill both with one well. Also in the west, one can keep going deeper with a single well and also get down to the HRZ. You got a lot of potential for getting a lot value out of a single well. We can start to do more things with the data. We can pull out seismic attributes and start to work on that, especially in the east where we've got access already to some of the 3D data. I think in summary, I'd say very exciting and watch the spac

so vertical appraisal wells from the place where they started out. Then, as you go towards the right, over time, the technology has advanced and people have perfected the completions in horizontals and had moved predominantly all of these plays to horizontal development. You're seeing 15 to 25 times uplift. If you reverse calculate that back to what we need, and we think a horizontal well needs to flow two to two-and-a-half thousand barrels a day on IP for the economics of this project to work. As you'll see in the appendix and as we've released before with this breakeven less than 40 bucks, it's about 100 to 150 barrels. That's the measure of success. We get a 100 or 150 around that range and we understand why we've got that number. It's not because it's a fluke or because we've failed for the wrong reasons or whatever, and get a low number. Then, that, for us, is the measure of success. That's the guidance.

Dave wall: Obviously, when you look at the frack design, one of the things that we had been looking at was a multi-stage frack because what we're trying to figure out is what the most productive part of this interval will be for locating future horizontal wells. There's also another objective, which is to prove the producibility and also to maximize the flow rate from this well because if you don't maximize the flow rate, and we get 50 or 60 barrels and only one stage is working, but we understand that that's very significant because we can go and drill horizontal, the market is not going to give us the love that we need to take the project forward. We change the priority to be equal flowability and locating the right zones to be primarily maximizing the flow rate, because that will be the thing that helps us move the project forward in the most meaningful way for everyone in this room.

Dave wall : If you understood the amount of time and years that Paul has put into this little bow, or whatever you want to call it, to determine where the sweet spot of this play is, which really is finding a needle in a haystack because this volatile oil phase that we've shown that we have in this project is not something that you find very commonly. It really is crucial to the story understanding that, which is ironic because volatile oil itself is not very well understood in the industry. I will get Paul up here in a minute to start to talk about some of the background of the project, and he'll touch on this volatile oil story.

Paul Basinski: Effectively, what we'd be looking at when we got to that point, assuming that we the green flag and going forward with the development from the technical and from an above ground, from the location point of view, you get about 10 wells per rig per year.

Paul Basinski: If you're producing four wells or X number of barrels even on the north slope, you're going to be able to get a pretty big realization on the flowing day barrel price which is going to hugely leverage the value of the project. Not only will it reduce the risk, but the upfront money you're going to get on those flowing day barrels is going to be pretty huge.

Dave Wall: It wouldn't be great. How much would you get in that scenario? I can tell you it wouldn't be a maximized value, or what we refer to the “creaming the curve” which is a common industry term which is creating the most value in the shortest period of time. We would get, say the curve looks like this, we're here, we could get to there with the next well. If we execute the next 10 wells to delineate, we could get up to here, and then we leave something on the table for those guys. We just sell here. You want to execute that delineation program. That's the point that we think is the most appropriate way to move this forward in the success case.

Questioner: Also, what would it take for a major then to say like, "Well, 88E, we're going to buy you"? Would it need to have just the one well? Would it need to have several wells? Is it- Dave Wall: I think it is possible. If we get success in this next well, we could go and lift the skirt, so to speak, to all the majors, and we definitely get offers, but how much will we get, right? Paul Basinski: The kilt might be ugly initially.

What the majors look for is operational efficiency. Even though they pay this ridiculous amount of money, they're looking long-term because they're going to really be able to optimize this. Having a contiguous block is really key. That's one of the things that we are going to be able to deliver because even when you look at the other shale place like the Vaca Muerta in Argentina, where Exxon and others are getting in, the acreage is very parcellated. What we're going to be able to offer if we show that we have the resource and we got the right classification is an operational efficiency upside which is going to highly leverage a lot of the other conditions that we're currently facing.

Questioner: Hi. Again, two quick questions. First one, has the Trump administration had any major effects or minor effects? Second question, what is your most optimistic outlook for the whole play? Dave Wall: The second question I'm not going to answer, but don't worry I think about it a lot. Questioner: Not as much as we do. Paul Basinski: Can you see the invisible duct tape?

Paul Basinski: To that point, the offset wells on either side are effectively what we did in the Eagle Ford when we drilled the Hookes well which is 55 miles away. The point is that if you do this and then you get the data and you find something that's very similar, then effectively, with your reserve classification, right now, it's 2C, we'll get an elevation across the board just because a major risk factor has been taken out if we show the continuity which is really the first step in order to be able to move a project forward. If you can get your contingent resource evaluated or classified as an elevated contingent or an undeveloped resource, then it becomes much more valuable