RE: US today5 Apr 2021 13:16
Ddraig 10:58
Interesting point fella, people nicking yah views and using those views as their own postings, something to consider as brombarb will say , read inbewtween, around, through and over what has been written as it isn’t gospel and can be manipulated covertly and subtlety to sway opinion in the short or long term...
We are seeing this now on reddit, stocktwits, twitter hyper tsunami, yeh yeh yeh i know some are gamblers/mercenaries willing to ride the hyper sp wave as high as it can go or turn..like i posted a few weeks ago sentiment and momentum will drive this beast for a short while until facts and reality come crashing in, (who still class 1trcf of condensate gas as negative?) well the ill informed and gambits sold 88e off last year (positive for LTH who knew it was a great pull back to buy in and avg down ... after the chaos and dust settled new options sprang up.
If the MM have priced in the SP in anticipation I’ve noticed 2 forms of pricing on the forums that may shed light on the confusion bare in mind these are just rough figures imho...
1: based on Dave wall net expectation of 300 million from articles posted today, 300mmb x $23.5 (Brent profit after $40 break even) = $7.05bn divided by 12.5bn =56c divided by 1.39 = 40p
2: best 270mb 2u figure divided by 2 = $135m net to 88e x $23 = 3.105bn divided by 12bn shares = 24c or 17.25p
3: As. Same as 1 but replace Brent figure with $3 per barrel (based on oil search/ armstrong deal) = 7.9c or 5.1p
4: same as 2. But replace Brent figure with £3 per barrel (based on oil search/ armstrong deal) = 3.24c or 2.33p
Just my take on it and not factoring in harrier shallow or deep or extra 500ft of play or Umiat just merlin. Best check on previous deals done on the slope for guide lines and deals..not 100% how this will be priced..
Dazzle
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