Member Info for davidpqz

On further reading of the RNS I think a clue is in the projected AISC for the coming year, which is $2.65/lb vs $2.21 for 2020. The copper price achieved for 2020 was 2.72. Taking the difference between price achieved and AISC as a rough indicator of revenue, the margin between the two drops from 51 to 7 cents per pound. That's quite alarming. However if copper prices remain at around $4, the margin becomes $1.35. Question is, do you believe in a copper super cycle?

FY 20 results are in line with expectations. The results show a price of $2.72 /lb Cu achieved with an AISC of $2.21. The copper price for Q1 has been around $4.1/lb. (OK today it's dipping below $4). The prognosis from many quarters is very bullish for copper.
AND YET the share price is down about 8% as I write. Can someone tell me what it is that I'm missing?

Might have something to do with this:
https://bulawayo24.com/index-id-news-sc-local-byo-201203.html
Further Googling reveals Biden is keeping a close eye on the situation.

" In these studies, they have detected and identified the virus S-Protein in quantities at 40 femtogram[i] per millilitre ("Fg/mL") at close to 100% sensitivity and specificity on DeepVerge's Microtox® BT[ii] nano-optofluidic chip."
(A femtogram is a one with fifteen zeros after it.)
The test is claimed to only require 90 seconds. (gold standard PCR takes a couple of hours in a high security lab).
If the market believed this release then the share price would be in orbit around the moon by now. Could someone please tell me why the market is unimpressed?

I can just see the green 'filtered' message. Some bb's are a sea of green! :-(

I may be an old cynic but I do believe I read that the copper nanoparticles in this mask take up to seven hours to kill the virus.
I guess there will be some sort of market for this product just as people buy creams to make themselves look younger. Good luck, but I for one am not a believer.

If you like the commodities super cycle theory, then copper is going to be a big winner. Personally I'm quite hopeful for Atalaya (ATM) a copper miner located in Spain (a nice, stable European country!).

This is Putin's Russia. Did they get a choice? You could equally argue that the buyers thought that TSG is worth far more than 118p.
I found it instructive this morning to go through the HGM bb which was similarly taken over last summer.

True. I don't know where a third came from. Initially the sp dropped by 5% on the news. My point was that if you're confident about your investment case then these occasional shocks shouldn't panic you.

You were dead right. Rosetta have acquired over 5% over the shares and the sp is up 10% on the day.

Thanks Phil. Valuable insight. Unfortunately I can't shed any further light

to a director selling one third of his stake. Personally I'm more focussed on figures such as the Goldman Sachs predictions for the price of copper over the next year.

Sorry. The non deterioration in Phase 1 is so far unexplained.

I don't think appointing MH's replacement is going to be a seismic event. What we do have is that the results from Phase 2a are good and the results persist (i.e. the underlying disease doesn't seem to be able to reassert itself). We also observe that the untreated eye does (sadly) continue to deteriorate - an effect so far unexplained, which did not occur in Phase 1. We are by no means out of the woods though - my worst nightmare would be if the doubling of the dose in the Phase 2a Expansion study triggered an immune response. Having said that, I think we are in a very much stronger position than say, two years ago regardless of the share price.

DCF is way too sensitive to assumptions about interest rates. In situations like this I take the view that the increase in the commodity price less tax is going to go pretty much, straight to the bottom line. As the results of increased commodity price is cumulative over the course of the year, the effect can catch the market unawares. Anyway, it worked for me a couple of years back with Griffin Mining when the price of Zinc was rising steadily.

The online partnerships with big name stores could be an effective way to bypass their problem with advertising which, although being highly effective , is also far too expensive. We shall see.
Meanwhile they could improve their credibility if their reporting was clear and honest. The example below is not isolated.
You end up with a bunch of simultaneous equations trying to figure out the true numbers. WHAT are they trying to hide?
"Sales momentum seen in Q1 and July continued in August and September. Revenue increased by 7% July to August and 54% August to September" (Trading update for H1 7 Oct 20).

Rounding error. These days most people wind up the telephone.

Wow ! That's got to be worth a 10% rise in anybody's money because it would have been an utter disaster if it couldn't.

Not very long . Personally I wouldn't take investment advice on this bb any more than I'd take singing lessons from a donkey. The only value of this bb is to see Ben Graham's dictum "Mr Market is a crazy guy" in action.

https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/health/files/preparedness_response/docs/covid-19_rat_common-list_en.pdf
This was raised yesterday and has been studiously ignored. Why would Avacta have any competitive advantage over say, Ameda who already have an antigen test with near perfect sensitivity and specificity?