Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
Valuation of the shares based on a cash position at sometime in the future when the person doing the valuation is simply basing that time on when they hope the virus will end are not valid in my opinion as the are simply based on somebody's hopes! Or, if that person simply goes through life led by the nose by the BBC for example, then based on the hopes of the BBC!
The latest vaccine, Novavax, has been tested against the UK variant (89% efficacy) and South African mutation (50% efficacy), and these efficacy rates will drop in time after vaccination.
An efficacy rating of well over 80% is now needed with the more contagious mutations in order to keep the R number under 1, and therefore not have a growing pandemic, with normal human conditions.
The highly contagious South African mutation has therefore skipped the vaccines (Brazilian also similar mutations), and whilst the UK is now trying to protect its borders, on a global level there is unfortunately no end to COVID.
Therefore, the Novacyt share should in my opinion be valued as a long term growth stock. A P/E ratio of 15:1, which is similar to others in the sector, based on today's trading update, would give a share price of £38. 2021 revenues are likely to be much higher, 2022 even higher.
What is unfortunate for long term share holders is that the market in these shares has largely been driven by the dull-witted, e.g. those 'analysts' who were predicting a V-shaped recovery last Spring! And those still thinking Covid will go away this year or next year!
In March last year, they were predicting it would be gone by the summer. In the summer, they were predicting Autumn, in autumn, this spring. And now, at the end of this year! But it never gets closer, only further away!
World Health Organisation says it is with us to stay!
I would like to take my kids on holiday, but investors must look at facts, not hopes!
Good buying opportunity IMO.
Amongst all the wild predictions of the trading update, both low and high, the predictions of both Numis and SP Angel actually turned out to be very accurate, and on this basis both valuing the shares at around £14 on average.
Whilst these valuations were re-iterated to take into account vaccine news, they were before, and therefore didn't account for vaccine-resistant mutations of the virus.
This is highly significant, particularly with regards to the South African and Brazilian mutations, which are very worrying, and hence the travel bans.
The latest vaccine, Novavax, has been tested against the UK variant (89% efficacy) and South African mutation (50% efficacy), and these efficacy rates will drop in time after vaccination.
An efficacy rating of well over 80% is now needed with the more contagious mutations in order to keep the R number under 1, and therefore not have a growing pandemic, with normal human conditions.
The highly contagious South African mutation has therefore skipped the vaccines (Brazilian also similar mutations), and whilst the UK is now trying to protect its borders, on a global level there is unfortunately no end to COVID.
Therefore, the Novacyt share should in my opinion be valued as a long term growth stock. A P/E ratio of 15:1, which is similar to others in the sector, based on today's trading update, would give a share price of £38. 2021 revenues are likely to be much higher, 2022 even higher.
What is unfortunate for long term share holders is that the market in these shares has largely been driven by the dull-witted, e.g. those 'analysts' who were predicting a V-shaped recovery last Spring! And those still thinking Covid will go away this year or next year!
Good buying opportunity today IMO.
Amongst all the wild predictions of the trading update, both low and high, the predictions of both Numis and SP Angel actually turned out to be very accurate, and on this basis both valuing the shares at around £14 on average.
Whilst these valuations were re-iterated to take into account vaccine news, they were before, and therefore didn't account for vaccine-resistant mutations of the virus..
This is highly significant, particularly with regards to the South African and Brazilian mutations, which are very worrying, and hence the travel bans.
The latest vaccine, Novavax, has been tested against the UK variant (89% efficacy) and South African mutation (50% efficacy), and these efficacy rates will drop in time after vaccination.
An efficacy rating of well over 80% is now needed with the more contagious mutations in order to keep the R number under 1, and therefore not have a growing pandemic, with normal human conditions.
The highly contagious South African mutation has therefore skipped the vaccines (Brazilian also similar mutations), and whilst the UK is now trying to protect its borders, on a global level there is unfortunately no end to COVID.
Therefore, the Novacyt share should in my opinion be valued as a long term growth stock. A P/E ratio of 15:1, which is similar to others in the sector, based on today's trading update, would give a share price of £38. 2021 revenues are likely to be much higher, 2022 even higher.
What is unfortunate for long term share holders is that the market in these shares has largely been driven by the dull-witted, e.g. those 'analysts' who were predicting a V-shaped recovery last Spring! And those still thinking Covid will go away this year or next year!
Good buying opportunity today IMO.
Amazing growth!
Now the value of the company should be rated according to a P/E ratio, for a growth stock, which is for other companies in the sector around 15:1. This would value the company at £2.7 Billion, a share price of £38.
As the World Health Organisation and many top scientists have stated, COVID will always be with us now. I hope it doesn't mutate too badly, but for Novacyt this means that growth will certainly continue!
From reading between the lines, I believe Novacyt's desire to create a LAMP test for covid was the result of the care home trials.
The first trials were around September, and this was solely with the Novacyt PCR tests. I believe it was only for staff/residents and didn't take into account visitors.
The second trials were around October/November, using Novacyt PCR testing, and an Innova lateral flow test for visitors (a faster test was needed for them), which turned out to be too inaccurate (around 68% was the figure I saw).
It was at that time that Novacyt first announced the development of a LAMP test, which would take a cycle of under 20 minutes to perform, using the Q16/Q32 kit. We heard little more about the care home trials, but the care home contract would have been around £600 million, enough to double the Novacyt share price!
The LAMP test is due to be ready this month according to Novacyt Insider, and the market is completely open for a rapid, but ACCURATE test. If Novacyt can pull this off it will be a complete game-changer not only for them, but for testing all over the world.
So a gutter press hack takes a short position in NCYT and the writes a shabby little story over the weekend? Nothing new here, they were doing it with Boohoo every other weekend over the summer, up until the last week of September, the last time the share price went UP on the Monday and they gave up after that. Went back to their murky world of lies and false propaganda, to contemplate the failing powers of a media that hardly anyone reads any more, the printed version of which isn't even suitable for use as toilet paper. Lets all top up and blast the scum out of the water!
Everyone who has had the vaccine will need to be tested, to see if they are immune, and tested again every few months to see if the immunity is holding. one of the characteristics of Covid-19 is that immunity has been found not to hold for more than a few months at best, as we see regarding this vaccine at 90% after 28 days (4 weeks) and likely at 50% of people after 20 weeks. Still billions of tests needed around the world IMO
tas 95, sorry to hear that! Definitely an over-reaction of the market today, and as anther poster has mentioned, had there been an RNS update from Novacyt, many investors would have felt more confident about holding. There is plenty of news to come on the trading progress of Novacyt, and the current business is, I believe, unaffected by todays news, which was expected at some stage soon anyway. I am still going to hold as I believe the fundamentals of Novacyt are unchanged. Well done for holding on!
Just shows how many people bought this share without doing any research, then filled their pants and sold their shares today! Amazing! Nothing has changed for Novacyt! Good news that a vaccine has been found. 90% effective after 28 days (4 weeks) of testing, so this is likely to be 50% effective after 20 weeks. This is nothing new from what we have already been told, and what we have been expecting for several months! The fundamentals of Novacyt are the same.
The World Health Organisation has stated that a successful vaccine will not end Covid-19, we will simply have to live with it. 2 British government medical advisors have also recently stated similar. So there is no ‘post-covid’. Testing will always be required.
The facts are that even by April there were at least 22 different strains of Covid-19, and now several thousand strains exist according to scientists. A successful vaccine is unlikely to last 6 months, and even many people who have been infected with the virus have no antibodies after a few months. The vaccine will be no more effective than the flu jab. A vaccine will also not cure an existing case of the virus. They will need to be tested. I wonder if, in 5 years time, people will be still believing ‘the virus will go away next year’?
£280 million (conservatively, but at least!) estimated net profit for the current year A low P/E rating for a long-term growth stock would be 10:1, giving a share price of £40.15. Not even taking into account revenue from the new products, the 2-gene Covid-19 test, which gives Novacyt access to markets in a number of additional countries, that require a 2 gene test. Also the antibody test just launched. Novacyt should already be a Mid-Cap company if properly appreciated, £15 per share.
Novacyt is a great company that will be helping the world stop the spread of the virus for many years to come, it is a highly ethical investment. Many sold shares today who knew nothing about Novacyt, so great buying opportunity now! Hoping more II’s, would take some of the idiot volatility out! Posted this earlier on advfn.
DYOR and good luck!
Investing in shares is an emotive issue, yet to be a good investor, it is necessary to be completely objective, and not emotional. Coronavirus is an emotive issue, we all hope it will go and the world can return to normal, or even a better normal! Yet, when I put all emotions to one side, and just look at the facts, I find staring me in the face, the best investment opportunity I have ever seen!
The World Health Organisation has stated that a successful vaccine will not end Covid-19, we will simply have to live with it. 2 British government medical advisors have also recently stated similar. So there is no ‘post-covid’. Testing will always be required.
The facts are that even by April there were at least 22 different strains of Covid-19, and now several thousand strains exist according to scientists. A successful vaccine is unlikely to last 6 months, and even many people who have been infected with the virus have no antibodies after a few months. The vaccine will be no more effective than the flu jab. A vaccine will also not cure an existing case of the virus. They will need to be tested. I wonder if, in 5 years time, people will be still believing ‘the virus will go away next year’?
With a share price of around £11 now, £280 million (conservatively, but at least!) estimated net profit for the current year, and a market capitalisation of £766 million, giving a P/E ratio of around 2.74:1, allowing for corp tax. A low P/E rating for a long-term growth stock would be 10:1, giving a share price of £40.15. Not even taking into account revenue from the new products, the 2-gene Covid-19 test, which gives Novacyt access to markets in a number of additional countries, that require a 2 gene test. Also the antibody test just launched. Novacyt should already be a Mid-Cap company if properly appreciated.
However, at the forefront of a massive new growth industry and with great ability to innovate vital new products, Novacyt could be the ‘Boohoo’ of the Medical world in terms of its future potential, and a similar prospective P/E ratio of around 50:1 would give it a share price of around £200, that’s potential!
Novacyt is a great company that will be helping the world stop the spread of the virus for many years to come, it is a highly ethical investment.
DYOR and good luck!
ShaunP, with all due respect to you, and the excellent information you have collected, IMO anyone claiming the fair value of this share at £11.86, given the potential of this company, has the vision of a mole! There are many business people and experienced investors on this forum, including myself, who would value this in the form of a P/E ratio based on the circumstances and risks that we now know, and value that potential now, with respect to holding onto the shares! That is how the whole stock market works, and if you have any confidence in the board of directors then you would value it at more than simply the book value up to December 2021.
As you value your shares £11.86, did you sell then at £12 this morning? If not, perhaps you could tell us what you really value them at? If you can't value them properly that why try to value them at all?
I wouldn't be at all bothered what you think if you didn't practically dominate this board, but to have you on here de-ramping our shares again is actually quite annoying.
Iowa - I have been holding since March and certainly not selling any time soon. Although the price has risen a lot, it is still only a fraction of the massive potential here. I see nothing significant about the current share price in terms of selling, and prefer to hold on for £30 or £40 next year, and see how it goes. Otherwise, I would always be kicking myself about what could have been, and this is maybe the one opportunity like this! Let your winners run!
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-disease-not-likely-to-be-eradicated-sage-scientist-says-12110135
UK government advisor says coronavirus with us for evermore - excuse me if this has already been posted, had a very busy day!