Member Info for daveycaferacer

and for those new to Biopharma investing, the NDA (new drug application) is not an application to name or develop a new drug, it is effectively the point at which a full submission is made to the EMA, FDA or other regulatory body to get final approval

If it were 5 New Drug Applications the company's mcap would probably be 10 or even 20 x what it is today

NDA's between 2 organisations do not cost anything

Nice to hear from you and your interesting insights Warwis, and you've perfectly outlined the twists and turns in the road ahead with regards to geopolitical and currency trends in the future. I must say it appears Chi-Med has periods where the price rapidly over-extends, then periods of up to 5 years where mcap growth stalls. As we are currently at the same valuation we were almost 3.5 I am hopeful 2021 will begin another period of growth in the company's valuation.

I have a couple of slightly alternative perspectives when it comes to exchange rates in the fuiture

1. The share price at the moment is controlled by the ADR's, not the London Ordinary shares, due to the volumes traded on NASDAQ compared to London, so as the USD continues to weaken it impacts negatively on the London share price

2. Chi Med reports its results in USD, so going forward the exchange rate to be concerned about from a Company performance perspective is the CNY/USD not the CNY/GBP

On the subject of revenue generation, in the short term China will no doubt make up most of the revenue, but in the longer term I think you will find RoW will make up a bigger proportion of the revenue than China (according to Edison and Trinity Delta's forecast). This appears to be largely down to the prices that can be achieved in markets such as the U.S - for example Savolitinib could be $2k per cycle on the NRDL in China but $10k per cycle in the United States

Whatever happens I firmly believe this will go from being a $4bn Company to a $20bn Company in the next 5 years if the pipeline continues its current trajectory

Stims, it does, so hopefully more specialist institutional investors will take a position

“Washed up ghost on a bulletin board”

If you are referring to me I’m Long, Bullish and very very positive about Tiziana’s prospects so I think you’ve made an error in your rush to judgement. Look at my post again, I said STRONG BUY

https://www.withersworldwide.com/en-gb/insight/listing-on-the-main-market-of-the-london-stock-exchange-an-overview

One of the reasons most unprofitable small Co's do not have a main market listing is:-

1. Higher fees for sponsors, auditors, lawyers and non-executive directors in view of greater continuing obligations. Typical cost of maintaining listing is £300,000 – £400,000 p.a.

also

2. Cost of listing Minimum: £700,000 – £900,000

I am not hopeful because knowing the Company's lack of corporate and exchange knowledge they probably committed to a main listing before knowing the above and then baulked at the costs....

"long term = 10+ years"

In Biotech that is indeed the case, and for anyone who wants to see how a small Biotech Co. can grow from £360m to £3.2bn look at HCM.

It's a Biotech stock, those who are long term investors will be rewarded. In Biotech:-

short term = 1 - 5 years
medium term = 5 - 10 years
long term = 10+ years

".the board can afford to hold forever...they are getting paid"

so am I, are you not?

The only issue with the Board is that they are invested in this for the long term, and have no real regard for the share price today, tomorrow or next week and I doubt they even look at it on a daily basis. They rightly assume most investors are of a similar mindset. They know the real value of the Company will come through.

However, they should probably be a little more aware of loose speak, particularly when it comes to corporate actions, such as listings and the like. They need the services of a decent IR firm, and I don't mean the cowboys at Redchip!!

"knowingly mis-led their shareholders"

Why would they do that? All they actually want to do is deliver value to Investors and improve patients lives

The slide of the dollar against sterling is having a negative impact on the share price in London, unfortunately......

The market seems to be pricing in a Brexit deal, although the USD is losing value against all major currencies at the moment

great minds oldapache ;o-))

"Trials are important but commercialisation is where the big money's to be made and that is still some time away."

That may be true but there are plenty of Biotechs with zero revenues, no commercialisation and smaller pipelines who have valuations close to, or in excess of $1bn

Provention is a case in point, $885m mcap and not a single $ in revenue and a much smaller pipeline.

That is why Tiziana needs to start getting its name and value prop around the specialist Biotech investor community in the United States

Surufatinib was given priority review status 12 months ago, so hopefully news is imminent

I'm very pleased that the Company has acknowledged that they need more Analyst coverage than the existing single firm (HC Wainwright). They need some specialist Biopharma analysts to start covering the Company and it seems they have a plan to get that underway shortly.

I've suggested to the Company that they avoid Redchip who are a Robinhood daytrader type outfit and instead employ the services of a specialist Biotech PR/IR firm. That way they will get known by the specialist Biotech/Biopharma investment community in the U.S. and avoid teenager daytraders.

That correct Ledda, many Funds have rules that prevent them investing in AIM listed Companies, others don't have rules but their Managers simply follow a valuation and risk profiling process that rules out AIM companies.