Member Info for daveycaferacer

http://www.bbwhkevent.com/ley2021

My wife died of breast cancer, my twin daughters need the most accurate prognosis test available. There are countless people whose lives may literally depend on Stemprinter/Spare. The Company (Accustem) has a moral obligation to bring this test to the market, even if they think do not have an obligation to Investors. Their treatment of potential patients and current Investors seems to me to be very disappointing.

Jatw I agree and I hope that the FDA in particular keep in mind their goals, to help bring treatments to the American people. It would be a huge backward step if they let geo-politics get in the way of that mission. It's interesting that U.S. Biopharma is heavily reliant on China for API's and that is an area I would expect to see more of a clampdown on, to allow the United States to become less reliant on China and re-gain it's bio-independence. I can foresee a time where Hutchmed follows Beigene with a possible R&D center, limited manufacturing center, or possibly both.

I do hope that the Surufatinib approval happens between now and the PDUFA date in April and that provides a major boos to our valuation. I am also looking forward to the Annual Results in March and an update on sales numbers.

saigon, no, I do not think Beigene has been blacklisted, but I do think we continue to suffer from the constant cloud of de-listing Chinese Companies. Whilst it probably won't happen the baby gets thrown out with the bathwater. Despite all the brilliant pipeline, regulatory and commercial progress Hutchmed gets sold off the minute more anti-chinese sentiment hits the airwaves.

Hopefully we will get FDA approval fro Surufatinib in the next few months and a decent uplift in valuation. Annual results should also show the progress of all 3 drugs currently on sales in China.

This geopolitical wrangling is proving very unhelpful

https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/12/24723009/as-u-s-takes-aim-at-china-drug-makers-innovators-appear-at-biggest-risk

mcap of $8bn by end 2022

thanks for posting tacly, that PT is in line with others so it seems most analysts think we will have an mcap of $bn by end 2022 which will equate to a p/s of around 18.....

thankyou Jatw - a wonderful and insightful summary, I just hope the company's valuation will be adjusted upwards in 2022 based on the fundamentals of the Business, the value of the huge pipeline and the ever improving financials instead of geo-political wranglings between China and the United States.

Look ahead a few more years it is expected that by 2025 we will have 9 therapies launched in China and 5 in the global setting. Forecast revenues are around $1.2-1.3bn and the company should be profitable and generating some free cashflow by then. On the subject of the new factory build I wonder if Hutchmed will follow Beigene and deploy a plant in the United States, which may depend on any restrictions the U.S. Govt place on Chinese Biotechs (hopefully none).

The list taht caused big drops in Chinese Biotechs on Weds, although no Biotechs are on the list

https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2021-27406.pdf

" thirty-seven entities have been
determined by the U.S. Government to be acting contrary to the foreign policy or national
security interests of the United States and will be listed on the Entity List under the destinations
of the People’s Republic of China (China), Georgia, Malaysia, and Turkey. This final rule also
modifies one existing entry on the Entity List under the destination of China."

I hope/tunk the U.S. will impose strict measures in terms of disclosure and accounting standards, which Hutchmed already comply with. Companies in certain sectors may have to de-list (technology, semiconductors etc) but I doubt it will impact Biotech. Hucthmed may have to follow Beigene with regards to opening a U.S based R&D center and also consider a U.S. manufacturing facility, especially if any import controls on Chinese goods are applied to the life sciences sectors. As investors we really could do without this additional risk.

https://newsfilter.io/a/0edd8ce2ddb9ad67790d8f74eafd0e21

More geopolitical nonsense that continues to ruin the investment case of this fantastic company. Beigene has also been hit hard.

yes understood Diog, clearly the more people who claim the higher the loss will be....

"Early provisional estimates by the Company suggest a potential financial risk in the range of £2m-9mEarly provisional estimates by the Company suggest a potential financial risk in the range of £2m-9m"

really? surely they can quantify it more accurately than that.

even cowboy student letting agents don't make this fundamental error, or was it planned all along in order to save money.....

let's be fair, the company has delivered a project on time and in budget - a school hut in the Tanzanian bush

There's been some large increases in holdings recently

https://insider-analysis.com/search_whales.php?ticker=TABLE_HCM

If Accustem's prognosis assets are so superior, so valuable to Investors and so important for patients, why has the Company not done something about getting them to market? We were promised they would be launched in Italy first during 2021 then a global launch would follow. Yet another broken promise by the Company to add to the exhaustive list.

yes I saw that jatw, and have a small investment in Beigene, small compared to Hutchmed at least! maybe the market took exception to this too........

https://endpts.com/drugmakers-cut-prices-on-average-by-more-than-60-to-get-on-chinas-2022-ndrl-list-report/

I am lost with the sporadic and almost incomprehensible share price movements....are people arbitrage trading the company? The price movements also bear no relation to positive news, fundamentals or the investment case. It seems to be a mix of geopolitical knee jerk reactions and some other forces at play. Warren Buffett says "“Invest Only in Companies You Understand”. I do understand Chi-Med and the investment case but the market clearly does not and you need both in my view.