Detailed Report June 201613 Jul 2016 15:52
Curtsey of howdlep on Advfn, just posted '
Amedeo Resources is a resource and energy related infrastructure and asset investment company. The Group benefits from a management team with a proven track record, a strong senior partner in its first major investment with Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, in combination with the Qatar Investment Authority as the majority shareholder. Amedeo’s associate, YZJ Offshore, received its first order in 2012 for a Le Tourneau Super 116E Class design jackup rig, which is scheduled to be completed in late H2 2015. Amedeo also owns a stake in a small commodities trading business, MGR, and we anticipate further investments to be undertaken in due course. Whilst the market backdrop has become more difficult following the decline in the oil price, and this is still a relatively early stage in the Group’s development, the medium-term growth potential for Amedeo’s key investment in YZJ Offshore is significant. We initiate coverage with a Speculative Buy recommendation and 0.75p share price target.
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PER We have constructed a peer group comprising the London listed oil services businesses, with the addition of the two main Singaporean rig builders, Keppel Corporation and Sembcorp Marine. Following the decline in the oil price and subsequent impact on sector valuations, the peer group currently trades on a
FY1 PER of 13.5x falling to 12.6x. On EV/EBITDA criteria, the multiples stand at 7.8x falling to 6.4x.
However, Amedeo is in its infancy with only one investment and with the profit coming from YZJ’s first rig expected to be lower than for future projects. In arriving at our fair value estimate for the shares, we assume that a 15% operating margin is achieved on each future order constructed (whether it be a rig, an accommodation deck, vessel etc) and that the average order value is US$150m per order. This would imply an operating profit of US$22.5m per contract, US$4.3m/0.08p per share of which would be attributable to Amedeo shareholders.
Assuming two major contracts are delivered in FY 2018E and that MGR pays a dividend and interest to Amedeo equal to the Group administration costs, this would result in a hypothetical EPS of 0.17p. Ascribing a conservative PER multiple of 6x, a 52% discount to the year-2 peer group PER multiple, this would imply a share price of 1.0p.