Member Info for davef24

Not one day up since the windfall tax increase ****ing joke

BRENT CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

Brent crude oil is trading marginally higher on Friday and could close in the green for a fourth consecutive day, last seen in early October. Fed Chair Powell’s rather dovish speech on Wednesday has been persisting through market reaction after receiving support from the U.S. core PCE release yesterday. China’s revision of its COVID situation has also been a tailwind for crude oil with respect to demand-side forecasts.

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Later today, Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) statistics will be the focal point for the USD and thus crude oil prices. A strong labor release would likely result in support for the USD but also provide more uncertainty with respect to the Fed’s forward guidance.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

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Source: DailyFX economic calendar

OPEC+ is set to meet on Sunday December 4th to discuss a possible shift in its supply quota. Up until now, there has been rumors of production increases, cuts and no change thereby increasing the hype and anticipation around the OPEC+ meet. It is fairly likely that there will not be a production increase considering depressed oil prices as well as global recessionary fears. In addition OPEC+ may not want to surprise markets by cutting before year end and may look to acquire more data before the next meeting to make an informed decision. A decision of no change is probable after taking into account the above factors which should not shift the price needle too far.

FOUNDATIONAL TRADING KNOWLEDGE
Commodities Trading
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An action that may provide substantial stimuli for crude markets is the decision around a Russian oil price cap. The pronouncement is set for December 5th but there has been no unanimous agreement amongst the member states as of yet. According to the most recent information, the price cap is rumored to be set at the $60/bbl mark down from $65-70/bbl. The lower the price cap level, the more chance that Russia retaliates by constraining or eliminating supply altogether and could spark a push higher in crude prices.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

BRENT CRUDE (LCOc1) DAILY CHART

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Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

Price action suggests Brent crude could be heading for a leg lower after yesterday’s long upper wick candlestick. This could be invalidated should today’s candle close above the September swing low at 87.28 and the coinciding downward sloping trendline (black). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicative of bearish momentum (below 50) which supports a subsequent downside move short-term. That being said, fundamental influences are the key driver going into next week and price action will be highly dependent on these forces.

Key resistance levels:

$90.00
$87.28
Key support levels:

$83.51
$82.38
IG CLIENT SENTIMENT: BULLIS

???? What you on about, can’t see anything on sky?

This is a short stock ****ing only goes one way> The UK government has ****ed it completely

Windfall tax hampers investment says OEUK, as Harbour falls off FTSE 100
BY:NICHOLAS EARL

The Government’s decision to toughen the windfall tax has made companies and investors “reassess their plans for the future” warned one of the UK’s leading energy bodies.

Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) told City A.M. the latest changes to the windfall tax have made rates “so high that it threatens to drive investment out of the UK altogether.”

Mike Tholen, sustainability director at Offshore Energies UK, said: “Any change in regulatory or fiscal regimes will make the companies and investors affected reassess their plans for the future.”

The latest gloomy warnings come as Harbour Energy is booted off the FTSE 100 this week, after its share price plummeted over 20 per cent in the past six months.

Analysts have pointed to both the windfall tax turmoil and a lack of fresh projects in its mature portfolio for its declining market value.

Harbour is the UK’s largest oil and gas trader, previously warned it would have to reconsider investments in the UK if the windfall tax was expanded.

Chief executive Linda Z Cook explained that evaluating “expected returns from long term investments” has become more difficult and revealed that “investors are advocating for geographic diversification.”

Nathan Piper, head of oil and gas research at Investec argued Harbour’s declining fortunes reflected the potency of the windfall tax.

He said: “The windfall tax, effectively moving the tax rate from 40 per cent in 2021 to 75 per cent until 2028 has had a material impact on the value of Harbour’s largely UK North Sea portfolio reflected in recent share price weakness and drop from the FTSE100.”

Before May 2022 Special Tax Rate 40 per cent corporation tax
May 2022 Energy Profits Levy 25 per cent rate
2022-2025
+ 40 per cent corporation tax
Nov 2022 Energy Profits Levy expanded 35 per cent rate
2022-2028
+ 40 per cent corporation tax
The expansion of the North Sea Levy during the energy crisis
READ MORE

Ithaca Energy records $1.4bn profits amid booming oil and gas trading

North Sea volatility worsened by windfall tax
Harbour was one of a number of private-equity backed companies that swept up North Sea assets after the oil price crash in 2014, with energy giants diversifying to international portfolios and lower-carbon projects.

This includes rival operator Neptune Energy, which could be the target of a takeover bid from Italian energy firm Eni.

Multiple media outlets have reported Eni is in preliminary discussions to acquire Neptune Energy in a deal worth potentially $6bn.

Both companies have declined to comment on the reports.

In contrast, the reported potential acquisition of Neptune by ENI with a gas weighted asset base largely outside the UK North Sea demonstrates that PE investors may look to industry rather than public markets to exit from portfolio companies.
https://www.cityam.com/windfall-tax-hampers-investment-

This share is so much better in the FTSE250, we need to stay out of the jinxed FTSE100

We need the shorts to close before we see any major jump

Buybacks already started days ago made no difference, this share is a lottery. Where's the director buys if its so under priced? the government has ****ed this company from pillar to post

What's wrong with this ****ing share? never goes up

I wonder if this will drop another 4p tomorrow on ex div or its already priced in, hope not

Vodafone Is an MBA Case Study of Messed-Up M&A
Here are key takeaways if you treat miscalculations as object lessons on what to avoid in the future.
Chris Hughes
1:18 PM IST, 22 Nov 2022
4:41 PM IST, 22 Nov 2022
A pedestrian checks his smartphone as he passes the entrance to a Vodafone Group Plc retail store in London, U.K., on Friday, July 22, 2016. Vodafone reported first-quarter service revenue that beat analysts estimates amid gradual improvements in its European mobile-phone businesses and growth in developing markets.
A pedestrian checks his smartphone as he passes the entrance to a Vodafone Group Plc retail store in London, U.K., on Friday, July 22, 2016. Vodafone reported first-quarter service revenue that beat analysts estimates amid gradual improvements in its European mobile-phone businesses and growth in developing markets.
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(Bloomberg Opinion) -- There’s hidden value in Vodafone Group Plc, the sprawling telecoms company whose market capitalization has shed more than $50 billion in nearly five years. It offers business students a lesson in the good, the bad and ugly of mergers and acquisitions. The only thing missing is the ultimate deal: a break-up bid.

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Things aren’t going well. The shares recently slid beneath the psychological 100 pence level. The competition has been whipping Vodafone in Germany, its main market. Management is struggling to convince investors that high debt from dealmaking will come under control. Activist Cevian Capital AB gave up on the stock earlier this year, but telecoms billionaire Xavier Niel has taken its place as a potential agitator.

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Rewind to 2013 and it’s hard to believe Vodafone could have got into such a pickle. Then-Chief Executive Officer Vittorio Colao agreed to an exit from its joint venture with Verizon Communications Inc. for $130 billion. Most of the payment received — mainly a mix of cash and Verizon shares — was funneled to shareholders. That was a great deal, making a hiatus in years of empire building. Sadly, the sequels in this M&A saga have been a letdown.

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Vodafone added cable infrastructure to its portfolio pursuing a so-called convergence strategy to sell phone, internet and pay-television services. Having offered $11 billion to take control of Kabel Deutschland Holding AG in Germany, it then gobbled up Spain’s Grupo Corporativo ONO SA for $10 billion. The Spanish market later became viciously competitive.

In 2018 came the $22 billion acquisition of assets from rival Liberty Global Plc. This filled gaps in Vodafone’s German coverage. Less than a week after the announcement, Nick Read, then chief financial officer, was announced as Colao’s successor and given the mammoth integration job. True, Colao had been boss nearly 10 years, but the succession was hardly ideal. Vodafone shares have badly trailed European peers ever since.

To be fair, the idea of becoming a bundled telecoms provider made sens

Out we go yet again, what a joke
Tipped to join Abrdn in the FTSE 100 is Weir Group, a Glasgow-based engineering firm, while Harbour Energy and Dechra Pharmaceuticals are set to be relegated to the FTSE 250. Betting company 888 Holdings could be demoted from the FTSE 250 to the FTSE Small Cap, while Digital 9 Infrastructure, an investment trust launched in March 2021, could very well take its place.

Pathetic rise. This is going to 2.80 this week

Unbelievable Credit Suisse cuts Vodafone to 'underperform' (outperform) - price target 90 (140) pence

I bet if we go up today it will be no more than 10p which is a joke. 3% shorts have ****ed this for now

Under 3 today for sure, such a **** share, cant beat the shorters

Berenberg cuts Harbour Energy price target to 320 (480) pence - 'hold'

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Barclays cuts Harbour Energy price target to 585 (675) pence - 'overweight'

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We are so ****ed

The North Sea’s biggest producer has expressed its frustration over plans to phase out the windfall tax if oil commodity drop to a normal level.

Operator Harbour Energy says it is “deeply disappointed” that the energy profits levy now won’t expire if oil drops to around $70 a barrel.

Jeremy Hunt also confirmed during his autumn budget that the policy will run until 2028, rather than 2025 as originally planned.

As well as pushing back the closing date, the chancellor increased the tax on the profits of oil and gas companies by 10% to 35% to plug the government’s fiscal black hole.

It is feared the move could lead to a more rapid decline in UK North Sea production and accelerate decommissioning of assets.

Responding to the news, a spokesperson for Harbour said: “We are reviewing the impact on our business of yet another change in the tax regime for UK oil and gas companies.

“The EPL, as currently designed, disproportionately impacts independent UK oil and gas companies and does not target genuine windfall profits.

“We are also deeply disappointed to learn today that the government has not only increased and extended the EPL, but has also abandoned its policy to phase it out if commodity prices return to normal levels.

“We will seek to engage with Ministers and officials as a matter of priority.”

The decision to up the windfall tax follows oil major’s announcing billions of pounds of profits in their third quarter results.

They are still benefiting from investment relief included as part of the original policy though.

A Shell spokesperson said: “We recognise the burden that increased prices have across society, in particular on vulnerable consumers and communities. It is for governments to decide when and how they intervene to help those who need it most.

“As well as raising revenues to support people, taxes should be designed to provide incentives for investment to address the underlying supply problems that are causing high prices now, and to drive the vital, longer term transition to a low-carbon energy system.

“To deliver the very significant investment needed, which for Shell UK will be up to £25 billion in the next 10 years, the energy sector needs to have confidence that there will now be a stable investment climate following a period of considerable uncertainty.”

Into the 2s we go what a joke

we are the only oil company that get smashed every time, can't work that one out