Member Info for Dave85

July 2018 10 aim companies suspended for delayed results.

https://www.marke****ch.com/story/shares-of-10-aim-names-suspended-on-accounts-delay-2018-07-02

2 mention disposal of assets in relation to creditors.

Others mention change of accounting personnel.

2 make similar statements regarding continued newsflow during suspension.

Most interesting one to me was dfx. Suspended, financing was negotiated during suspension with companies largest shareholder.

After reading all the related RNS' and taking into account we have no (known) debt, cln's etc together with the fact we have a liquid asset worth around 1m gdp + likely at least some cash in the company - liquidation (therefore insolvency) seems a strange conclusion to draw.

I must admit that my gut says zeb has not been sold - yet. I recently made a bit on omi looking at the sp movement prior to the deal being sealed with newmount there, just shows how deceptive and secretive the lead up to good news can be.

CCC used to have 30%ish of uru now down to 15. They bought through sub niketo then transferred shares out of it to parent co before mysterious low ball disposal to unknown party (for tax loss purposes?) - saw value in uru stake? Is the current situation an amenable time for them, behind closed doors, and at a cheap price, to regain a higher percentage stake in uru. The outcome at dfx seems (at a very quick glance) to have been a situation with at least some similarity. Could they get away with that? License news good or bad is due soon. If good the likelihood of upping stake on cheap would reduce. Pump and dumps I can understand but pump and accumulates the year before Armageddon?

I stress my knowledge of these things is minimal and just thinking out loud here and literally spent 3 or 4 minutes scanning each co - so just a thought.

Aimo ATB

...same as this morning

AIMO ATB

Zebs 1st holes were drilled & found 100's of meters of rock at around 1/4% Ni was found. Later several more holes were drilled out & 8 - 9 million was spent on a PEA including an indicated resource of close to 1/2bt which is significant on a world scale. The grade is low but consistent.

The project was dormant due to low Ni prices brought about by the world economic slow down/chinese stainless steel demand reduction, development of the NPI market & enormous stockpile volumes.

The deposit was essentially worthless as it was uneconomic to put into production. H2 2016 & the project sprung to life coincident with a jump in other Ni shares around the world (sama and giga are examples). Simultaneously every tactic available was utilised to pump the sp up and to raise at 4.5p. Questionable price was paid for some MRS shares followed by more at a better price. These purchases in combination with revision of the drill programme saw the start of the sp decline as people realised what had happened and trust waned. Zwanes ridiculous new charter threatening infinite dilution and provoking court action will have played its part.

Delay after delay and undelivered previously suggested newsflow killed volume, residual trust, interest & sentiment resulting in repeated monthly sp declines.

Results eventually arrived and were fine, not spectacular but decent, but sentiment led sp trajectory was inescapable by this point, with one small chink of light closed off quickly in Feb this year and the drop continued.

Beaufort mess, cripto boom, trade war, Brexit anguish and Ni passing a peak have likely all contributed negatively to uru and many to a subdued aim resource market in general. Non existent pr and strangely timed rns' have played their part but even Co's with some of the best pr on aim can suffer a fall with a sentiment shift, even a minor one (eg sml).

When I step back and look at uru I try and see the basics. Management with significant skin in the game, monster sized asset of unknown potential (including magnetite) but indicated as being in the lower quartile of the cost curve and with recent discovers of PGE and high grade Ni. A second much more unknown, yet again very large asset in Burg. Over 9% stake in mrs - a company which seems undervalued and to be going from strength to strength of late. A Co with history of delivering 10's millions back to shareholders off the back of wise moves. An improving macro picture around Ni, an improved investment environment in SA, an active exploration campaign with results likely due in the near term.

Comparable projects around the world have seen recent advancement and deals going through (eg giga's turnagain and RNS's Dumonts both signing agreements with Cobalt 27).

Theres been dodginess in spades but for it to all of a sudden go to sh*t I would have one major question. Why now - I know - the license but even then still got mrs. Greek and nigwit on the extremes of sentiment, Im same as this mo

Whilst we await results, I've just found a short clip of some initial views from the mining industry on yesterdays charter announcements.

https://ewn.co.za/2018/09/28/listen-new-mining-charter-a-perfect-compromise-between-all-stakeholders

Seems broadly positive imo with apparent grey areas prevailing.

ATB

Took a few attempts to buy but tripled my holding below 0.35 big risk but big reward. Taking a chance on a this working out well from here.

AIMO GLAH

Watching GM presenting the charter and subsequent Q and A the two terms were used.

https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=7e65240f-b85e-4162-9af8-f8ec70ba0136

Quite a detailed look at the terminology and implications in practice elsewhere in Africa, well worth a read right to the end imo. Where the article talks of 'state' i just substituted 'workers'.

Basically they seem to, 'in practice,' mean the same. As for communities an option has now been introduced which contains neither phrase, the implications of which I don't fully understand so will await the final version wording and mining company reaction overtime (which will be the real test). I think the changes between draft and final have been at the will/swung in favour of mining companies rather than the opposing views towards a 'peoples charter' tho.

Sounds like significant modalities with regard to implementation are still to be decided over the coming fortnight so full picture still wont be totally clear even today.

BoD member stipulation removed will reassure I think.

Bottom line the charter has improved on June draft which massively improved on 2017 zwane version.

Ill wait and see what the mining companies say, see what this does to the industry, see what this does to the fraser institute rankings/scores. Just need to know where we stand in terms of URU control of license now and timings there of (all above pretty meaningless in comparison). Then we will see what news on that front does to SP (imo the likelihood is a lot).

AIMO ATB

FYI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctkvSIIF6IE

Wia your post 12/08/18

Could it be as simple as that? Would be nice!! Surely that is a bit of a loophole that would have been closed off somewhere by now? - Simply start a new associated company each time to allow infinite renewals.

Word 'associated' appears only twice in whole MPRDA Act 2002, section 17 (2) (b) - relating to prospecting licenses and 33 (c) - relating to retention licenses. The context of both uses of the word makes me think this is the word that would be used if a clause existed which contravened your theory (within this doc at least).

Having just had a re scan of MPRDA sections relating to prospecting/mining licenses I cant find any specific statement as to why what you suggest cannot happen.

If the possibility does exist the application by the new (not LPU (UML)) attempted holder will only be accepted according to section 16 (2) if 'no other person holds a prospecting right'. Any new prospecting application first needs to be accepted before it can be considered for being granted or not. Therefore no application will be accepted until the licenses in question are no longer owned by LPU(UML). The latest date this can be is 31/10/18 (one day prior to 2 year anniversary of RNS of 2 year renewal).

In one way this would provide a potential explanation behind reasoning for only 2 year extension rather than maximum of 3 years that was available at the one time renewal stage.

The negative would be that the application for the 'new' prospecting right would not now be likely accepted (I say likely as we do not know exact dates concerned (could be earlier)in which case it maybe possible) until after the charter is gazetted therefore the harsher charter terms pertaining to 'new' rights are more likely to apply (at least at some stage (from memory to do do with company valuation)).

Im still hopeful of mining license being secured but starting to think this is yet another possibility, and do apologise for my ramblings today, time for me to get to work.

https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/MPRDA-28-of-2002.pdf

Thanks again.

AIMO ATB

Much obliged, wish I had done the same, my previous mention of potential for non compliance - retracted.

No change is imo both reassuring and makes more sense - if someone were to use opportune buying and selling to impact sentiment someone would likely be wiser to utilise a non notifiable (<3%) holding in any case similar to what King alluded to yesterday.

Maybe this can put the past doubt of majors selling without market notification (at least to the knowledge of URU) to bed - it does in mind mind. With URU seemingly sticking to their website compliance claims re rule 17.

Wonder if this could begin to swing sentiment esp when combined with charter news etc.

AIMO ATB to all

Aura historic tweets

2015 - 1 tweet
2016 - no tweets
2017 - 3 tweets
2018 - 12 tweets (so far)

Sept 2018 - 10 tweets (so far)

Seems it is ramping up

Just an observation

https://twitter.com/aee_auraenergy?lang=en

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=URU&ArticleCode=8t8p1s5l&ArticleHeadline=Interim_Results

Part 2/2

MPRDA amendment cancellation which has looked likely for months now being confirmed provides a welcome double whammy towards imminent significant improvement to regulatory certainty.

Btw UML is owner of LPU (owner of soon to be expired Zeb prospecting rights) with UML itself being owned 100% by URU. Whereas UMH (now 8.48% URU shareholder) is separate entity to URU (not owned by URU) and is a subsidiary of Umbono Capital.

Not much of an idea why UMH would reduce their holding. Come back to that.

License renewals/ new license applications imo become ‘pending’ once lodged at the local relevant office, clock is now ticking down for URU (through UMH) to get this done (if not done already) prior to charter being gazetted. 'Pending is significant in charter wording with regards to rights and charter terms are greatly improved relative to terms relating to rights which are 'new'.

If UMH are conducting all undertakings with regards to licensing of Zeb, (as I understand (link 4 section 8) and therefore have front seat to likely loss or otherwise of license), and they have decided to sell some shares, and have ended up doing it under the radar of the market (but possibly not of uru), then if bad news re license were looming why stop at reducing your exposure by 11.67% why not reduce it by 100% and sell the lot? If they have been carrying out non rns’d share transactions, then as Ive alluded to before (08/07/18), they could have sold/bought at opportune moments to maximise overall sp response (maximise impact on sentiment (eg post rns) - with a net loss of only around 10m shares but with overall transacted amounts closer to 100m if not more (just an idea)).

As for possible motivation for the above all I can come up with is 4th link section 8 (3), bearing in mind they are a subsidiary to Umbono. Shooting in the dark really! Maybe clarity will now start to emerge with this seemingly rapid gazette (previously November was mentioned - hope the acceleration hasn’t caught out UMH).

AIMO and as usual corrections welcome, bit fragile at mo, good weekend to all wherever you are in the world – first bit of a nip in the air, Yorkshire way.

Part 1/2

Morning peeps, 24hr bugs got a mild grasp on me this morning. Eventful week here, very much appreciate the posts of various updates, was hectic week for me, still reading all posts here tho, again thanks to all!

Must admit I didnt make a note of previous major shareholder numbers but thanks to king it seems UMH have reduced. According to URU AoA (1st link - section 43 (c) & 45) then they should have notified the company within 5 days.

http://www.urumetals.com/media/82903/URU-Metals-Memorandum-and-Articles-of-Association-STAMPED.PDF

Aim rule 17 (2nd link - pg 9 - 1st bullet point) combined with Schedule 5 (2nd link - pg24) states we should have received an rns notifying us of UMH's reduced holding. We know UMH did their part by notifying URU (at least as of yeaterday) (as the info appears on URU website update) but URU doesn't appear to have complied with AIM rule 17 contrary to its claims in blurb above shareholder info on 3rd link.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/companies-and-advisors/aim/advisers/aim-notices/aim-rules-for-companies-july-2016.pdf

http://www.urumetals.com/investor-relations/share-information/substantial-shareholders-and-free-float

All that aside (and I may be misinterpreting the above), the reduction is relatively minor and not re CCC.

Mining Charter news is positive. In a nutshell, imv, the June draft version was an improvement for miners cf the 2017 proposed version from Zwane, and last weeks finalised version further improves on the draft. Significantly!...

The 5% community free carry - gone replaced by, "equivalent of 5% of the company is channelled towards the development of communities", at first glance to me at least, providing greater wiggle room of compliance in terms of overall cost outlay over LoM

The 1% payment of core predividend payment clause is also now gone.

Interestingly the Chamber of Mines is unwilling to comment pre gazzette - not sure how to read that but would expect deep down they must be happIER at least, should hear next week.

I would say timing is looking pretty good considering vanadium price movement of late - at decade highs.

Added more this morning - thanks to lucky short cyan trade, now my second largest holding.

Tiris permit for me will be the biggest piece of news if/when it comes (it's deep into the dessert so surely a relatively easier location than many - permit wise) but Vanadis IPO should put aura on the aim map a bit more than it is currently. This is expected anytime now.

I do like this company to me it's sort of a hedge. If renewables are set to dominate the energy system of the future then grid storage is a necessity and vrfb look to be in good favour to provide a good proportion of that currently unmet need. On the other hand if vrfb don't become dominant/go to storage solution or if renewable + storage system is greatly delayed in becoming significant, then nuclear seems to obvious only green, clean reliable base load to meet ever increasing population/developmental driven energy demand. Two degrees and Paris are the aim and many powerful govts are acting accordingly. To me one of these future energy scenarios renewable plus storage or greener base load) will play out and most likely both in tandem. The overall point I make is that aura benefits either way. Only need to look of price of U and V so far this year to see the ball looks to have started rolling but aura sp tells a different story and it seems critical and favourable news is needed to change the enormous potential into tangible investment gains. Looking at the two projects I'm thinking such news will be delivered.

There's even a high potential gold exploration element here in the background - for now.

Wuc is uranium / vanadium (with permit tho) the sp on that has seen traction of late. Kicking myself a bit as looked at it in 0.7s but didn't buy for several reasons. Commodity exposure is same here tho. Come on that permit!

As I've said before if / when haggan pfs is done, the vanadium price used in the calculations of the economics is likely imo to be high enough to place any of the 'high grade' 90mt section of the resource (which at the time happens to be in the indicated category) into reserve possibly even the >0.30% material? Will be interesting to see the vanadium price used in the numbers of the scoping study.

Aimo GLA

I noticed it too, in fact that prompted me to take another look at them. I noticed from kings recent posts re Anton E from PanEx resourses that two of the key people - Mike Scott and Rob Keifer are also key people in MinEx our 6.9% holder. Added to that the identical company tag lines 'we find mines' and add to that the fact that recent (again courtesy of King) CCC form 2A states AE received income from CCC as recently as 2015 (2015 year ends within 2A - from memory so no page ref I'm afraid - control F his surname for speed to check) then there appear, as usual, to be a tight web of connections - interested me but didn't really surprise me tbh. shareholder reg must be updated every 6 months so yeah 23/09/18.

5th bullet point

https://www.aimlisting.co.uk/flotation/aim-rule-26-explained/

Not at all jealous arok wish I was on an adventure today time for me to don the dust mask for another 7 hours or so.

Aimo ATB

AIMO

Part 3/3

From the info Ive seen 8.5 is the only magic number we have but a lot has changed since the PEA came up with that. USD vs ZAR (as per my post 07/07/18) had swung 40% in favour of the USD – likely reducing capex dollar value. USD cumulative inflation since, however, is around 10% so this works the other way. I think PEA stated cash flow per annum of around USD200m for 8.5. The last major bull market was china driven and pretty much solely founded on stainless. The coming bull market I believe (WoodMac predicting doubling of price by 2022) will not be just stainless (as NPI will continue to supply that market) but instead be founded on Li-ion batteries used in various ways.

Supply is just going into deficit but stockpiles are still very high which means a muted price response – for now. Long term demand looks nailed on but no one knows the future for sure. My thinking/guess is coming into mid next year (roughly another 150 trading days) we could get to 140kt below which the numbers look ok for Ni price being likely to make Zeb economic esp if including credits and if extra Ni types are by then being traded/priced separately. Mike Beck’s views are interesting and reference 2019 (link 4).

Obviously none of this means jack if we lose our license in 6 weeks or so. Im going to stick my neck out a say we won’t and I don’t think any major shareholdings will have reduced. Wishful thinking?...maybe, but other buyers likely agree at least in part.

1

http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/nickel/all/

2

http://www.infomine.com/investment/warehouse-levels/nickel/all/

3

https://www.westmetall.com/en/markdaten.php?action=show_table&field=LME_Ni_cash

4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9fE0sEtlJM

Interesting up to date article on Ni

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4203128-nickel-monthly-news-month-august-2018

Could easily have messed something up but hopefully the results are in the correct ball park and I found them useful to gauge price reaction to stockpiles in the past at least.

AIMO ATB

Part 2/3

Below are the main results which can be further analysed in many ways but these are the basic findings. I put all the days into brackets based on stockpile tonnage and the following is the lme stockpile bracket I used (kt), followed by the number of days between the dates above where the Ni price was above or equal to USD18734/t (or PEA 2012 assumed USD8.5/lb) whilst within the corresponding lme stockpile bracket, followed by the total number of days the stockpile was in the bracket, followed by the percentage of days Ni price closed above 8.5/lb for each bracket. All results included days when price or stockpile was equal to a figure used in the analysis.

>=300 / 29 / 922 / 3.15

200-300 / 22 / 294 / 7.48

180-200 / 0 / 38 / 0

160-180 / 18 / 99 / 18.18

140-160 / 52 / 119 / 43.70

120-140 / 193 / 308 / 62.66

100-120 / 163 / 374 / 43.58

80-100 / 76 / 194 / 39.18

60-80 / 0 / 46 / 0

40-60 / 112 / 179 / 62.57

20-40 / 73 / 75 / 97.33

0-20 / 310 / 314 / 98.73

As we know statistics can be spun to favour a view point so the choice of any further statements is subject to bias. Even so….

For the range of the data the stockpile was <=300kt on 69% of the days, of these days the price closed at > or = to USD8.5/lb 50% of the time.

For the range of the data the stockpile was <=140kt on 50% of the days, of these days the price closed at > or = to USD8.5/lb 62% of the time.

For the range of the data the stockpile was <=60kt on 17% of the days, of these days the price closed at > or = to USD8.5/lb 87% of the time.

AIMO ATB

Part 1/3

Was recently asking myself the same question.....my thoughts are.....

The last time there was a major bull market in Nickel, the driving force was Chinese stainless steel demand which diminished stockpiles to such an extent that at times just half a day of supply was available. Nickel price peaked during May 2007 at >USD54000/t or >USD24/lb (link 1). The supply shortage drove innovation and processes were developed allowing the economic exploitation of laterite deposits to produce NPI which could then be used in stainless steel manufacturing. The financial crisis reduced demand and oversupply resulted which years later caused lme stockpile to peak at >470000t in June 2015 (link 2).

NPI from laterites isn’t going away even though china is trying to clean up its industry and NPI exploitation doesn’t fit that goal. NPI however doesn’t economically get converted to class 1 nickel (the kind required for batteries).

Ive recently spent several hours messing about with an excel spreadsheet aiming to analyse the data supplied on the following website (link 3). Every days traded Nickel price and the corresponding lme stockpile tonnage between 26/04/06 and 29/08/18 was included but Ive looked mainly at days where stockpiles were <=300kt. I found the task both worthwhile, interesting and fortunately somewhat reassuring, imo.

AIMO ATB

Not much volume and no posts for weeks. V still high. U climbing bit by bit with upcoming Kazataprom ipo. Expecting significant news this/next month, more than doubled my holding today. GLA

Other buy was mine, still positive here, been looking into historic nickel prices vs stockpiles on lme (learning some new
excel functions) recently - bit complicated but so far has been interesting, will post when finished. Geophysics results expected soon - to uru - yes, to us - anyones guess. AIMO GLA