Member Info for Dave85

Interesting news indeed, down around 80% here in just around 12 months, one of my worst ever, averaged down on this development, see what occurs, maybe I'll make a few quid, maybe not, but stranger things have happened on aim.

Estate sales and ultimate doom and gloom on the bb maybe behind ppg?

GLA

Many thanks swizz, your continuous research/posts, very much appreciated.

ATB

For a while now aim has been at a premium.

Asx closed 0.6 which would be 0.32p.

Maybe this development will reduce the arbitrage, and present an opportunity?

Looks like I was too soon (averaging down), left plenty in the tank, luckily.

Should be an interesting few months ahead.

Aimo ATB

Hoping today is one of the best to av down, first bought early 2017 around 4.5p (after watching it drop for months), back then never imagined picking up any where near this amount of shares.

GLA

...here today whilst its quiet, got some below 0.27p will continue little and often.

GLA

Thats been true for vast majority of similar expl/dev type companies for several years now. These years spanned (predominantly) resourses bear market & market where growth has enjoyed favour over value. I've read things shifting slowly towards value just in the last few months. If trade deal can be sorted, the chances of broad resources bull market increase (if Shanghai composite rising - an indication). A gold and silver specific bull market seems already confirmed & in progress and seems fundamentally unstoppable (yet possibly delayable for a low number of years max) based on flaws of modern fiat currency management.

Getting into the right junior explorer/ developers at right time (very end of protracted bear market/very early in bull market) can change things around.

Instead of discounted placing, for relatively high dilution, sell off, and sp decline followed by another discounted (form a lower sp) placing etc which after repeated incidence breeds negative sentiment and expectation of a long position leading to losses (this is what has generally been going on since 2011ish).

A lengthy bull market can create a less discounted placing into sticker hands, relatively less dilution, stable or increasing share price, potential good news is allowed to create a sp rerate up for enough time for sentiment to improve, and sp momentum set in, followed by placing/warrant exercise at ball park sp parity or even placing at small discount (but higher than previous placing), further news/milestones & increased price of underlying commodity breeds increased sentiment and sp momentum & increased sticky long positions, future funds are raised at higher and higher levels funding more potential value accrediting milestones with less & less relative dilution, mania may set in and sp takes off as general investors see the gains the sector is returning and a bubble occurs at which point its time to sell, likely years after the bull cycle began.

Alternatively larger companies with production have been raking in profits off the back of high commodity prices for years & to continue to grow their own sp need/want to add value so buy assets, they have large capital reserves & large acquisitions occur, frequently (with long term hindsight) at too high a valuation (a good thing for the seller - the junior explorer/developer) & their shareholders.

That's my thinking anywho. Thr has been severely hampered by scarcity of funding due to macro climate. If they get deal despite this climate & it allows cashflow visibility, or the climate eases near term, sp/mcap turn around could/should be dramatic.

Mcaps been >20m here with +ve sentiment, 12m would be ~2 bags from here even if upcoming dilution is 50%. Mtr, PJ, and mb have decent stakes, agree this maybe them av down, if it is it's a good sign and as cventer says opportunity is there for all (funds dependent).

AIMO GLA

4/4

Proven ability to raise funds on an ongoing basis and consistantly through self contribution, and have historically followed there own significant money through the story. Past experience and success of selling companies. Relatively new exposure to gold, mcap never had to react to a sustained gold bull market whilst having >500koz resource. 2015/2016 spell of gold and resource bull market but was relatively short lived and news here in April 16 created several bags in short period of trading. Although substantial holders have averaged down of late, entry currently allows the PI to potentially enjoy profitable stake valuation prior to them, also they likely represent relatively sticky hands and may hold for the end game allowing newbies chance to derisk at over 100% above here without much selling completion.

Apologies for shorthand nature and likely relatively incoherent sections but just posting incase the condensing of some news/thoughts helps others get a feel for the developing story of lnd, and to record bits of info for me to look back at.

Ontario in terms of Fraser institute attractiveness for 2018 was 9/12 within Canada, and globally 20/83 with a negative trajectory from previous year figures.

Improved exposure resulting from potential good news followed by increasing buying demand possibly combined with further increasing au price through next year may see returns towards upper areas of previous mcaps say >16m, would be sp of >1.227p so decent chance to double within a year imo.

2019-2020 seems everything's is coming together for this tightly held small but well supported company after many years of hard work and paper loss endurance. End of October could be a substantial catalyst to draw eyeballs back to the story so I've started buying in last couple of weeks. Obviously not saying it cant go down before goes up but in balance seems a decent risk/reward currently.

AIMO GLA

3/4

20/02/19 pea mre 28.826mt at 1.03g/t for 951koz with 701koz indicated.
Base case is 12.7mt at 1.26g/t for 515koz and upside case of 19.7mt at 1.26g/t for 800koz. Base case post tax npv 69.2m usd, irr 22.4% aisc 806usd/oz , upside case post tax npv 123.7m and 26.9% irr aisc 816 usd /oz.
Initial capex 73.53m usd for plant and infrastructure plus 20.8m for mining and g and a. Potential for district scale exploration.

31/05/19 placing for 1m for 142857143 at 0.7p at 4.11% discount to previous close to do 4500m drill and geophysics and geo chem test to defined exploration targets along stike to bam.

04/06/19 as part of previous placing BH took 2.85m up to 73.5m or 6.11%. RP took 1.43m up to 14.8m or 1.23%. HG took 1.43m up to 4.3m or 0.36%.

Admission was 06/06/19 sp at 0.715p with issue total of 1203058636 and mcap 8.6m.

Canaccord ingenuity group is related party and has 194336377 50m of which was in this placing also have 2 or warrants exercisable at 0.875p.

12/06/19 commence 4500m drill campaign. To get bam to 951koz.

03/07/19 placing of 35714286 at 0.7p with j hudleston so up to 17.4% with 215394266. For working capital and current exploration campaign admission on 18/07/19 total shares 1238772922 at sp of 0.725p and mcap of 8.98m.

25/07/19 5 years options awarded total 46m with exercise price of 0.805p to BH 20m, RP 10m, CW 2m, HG 2m, MT 10m.

04/09/19 drilling update, completed infill drill of 24 holes for 4km on bam for updated mre and pea scheduled q4 2019. Intercepted gold similar to existing findings at bam. Also 10 holes for 1.4km extended mineralised zone 500m to w of bam with similar intercepts. Bam now extends 3.6km. Remains open e and w and at depth. Geophys geochem and geo mapping between bam and lamaune 8.5km away to w, expected to complete September and reported end October.

The 10 hole programme to west was completed but needed extra holes for resourse definition.

Drilled 4 holes to N but no gold found.

2 deeper holes planned to extend depth of bam.

Cube appointed to update mre and pea.

18/09/19 placing for 470k for 64827586 at 0.725p for working capital and exploration including extending bam to east and test mineralisation between bam and lamaune.

BH took 13793103 up to 87294365 or 6.7% and j hudleston took 43448276 up to 258842542 or 19.86%. Admission on 24/09/19 with total issue now 1303600508 and mcap at admission at sp of 0.725p of 9.45m.

2012 overhead expense price of Ni for lnd 12k usd /t including operation, refining, transportation and smelting costs. Good profit to be had now, say 50m usd for construction.

RP private equity group backed lnd for years with 10s of m of usd invested. The directors have a proven long standing ability to raise capital, important in today's climate.

Ipo around 8p.

AIMO

2/4

Also to include lamaune exploration prospect of 40 to 50k oz au and 300 to 500mt at 25 to 35% Fe.

Stated strategy at time was advance Bam E to 1m oz and start pfs in 2018.
Expand B4-7 and VW to 100kt Ni eq and either jv or sell.

All 3 deposits within 3km of each other.
BAM E to be open pit other two combination of open pit and underground.

There is alpha zone at b4-7 (contained within the scorpion zone) which is plat and palladium rich vein adjacent and subparrellel to main deposit, continuity so far 700m alongside main deposit. Vein intercepts include 1.5m at 10g/t pd and 20m at 1.54g/t pd. (Currently ~1700usd/oz)

11/12/17 bam e up to 400kt at 1.37g/t in indicated. Wanted to do a pea in 2018. Recovery results of 97% by gravity conc and cyanide leach. They were expecting lower quartile capex and opex.

22/12/17 options awarded to BH.5m at Exercise price 2.2p which was 8.9% premium to previous close. Expire 21/12/22.

16/03/18 placing 3.15m for 210m at 1.5p along with 210m warrants. Was at 13 3% discount to previous close. For 12km of drilling to get bam e to 1m oz and do a pea. Warrant were at 2p for 2 years. Till 03/04/2020. Cenkos securities appointed as broker.

03/04/18 total shares 1045915779 sp of 1.47p so mcap of 15.37m.

30/05/18 infill drilling update showed continuous every 100m similar gold intercepts between original bam and bam e.

20/07/18 lu wing chi from 3.41 to sub 3%.

07/08/18 junior lake bam new mre 18.588mt at 1.04g/t for 623k oz including 486k oz in indicated. Modelled estimated potential for 686k oz more in unclassified material. 2018 campaign is focused on the unclassified material.

Cube appointed to do mre and tech report which will form basis for q1 2019 pea.

24/09/18 new gold mineralised zone 400m w along strike remains open to w and depth.

24/10/18 gold mineralisation 1km e of bam.

25/10/18 JW hudleston newly takes 15.8%.

26/10/18 taheh international hld out completely from 11.9%. Total shares at time 1045915779 with sp 1.12p and mcap 11.714m.

11/12/18 cenkos appointed nomad.

08/01/19 mre update to 28.8mt at 1.03g/t and 951k oz including 701k oz indicated and modelled estimated adjacent unclassified material for another 441koz. Pea was scheduled for Feb 2019.

05/02/19 met results 98% recovery with grinding to 212microns gravity sep and cyanide leach. Cyanide consumption of 0.40kg/t and lime consumption of 0.60kg/t. Heap leach gave 84% recovery.

AIMO

1/4

Some notes/thoughts of mine.

Used to be mainly Ni, now mainly gold, lnd first found gold 2003.

BH and RP previously with argentinian Au explorer Brancote Holdings.

3%nsr after sale of lithium project at root lake to asx listed ardiden who can buy back half of nsr for 1m Canadian.

04/04/16 junior lake gold discovery (originally discovered 2015) intercepts incl 40m at 1.82g coalescence at depth hypothesized.

Near to ni resourse 30kt at 1.1ish Ni eq exploration targeting additional 20kt at same grade. Including cu and pgms.

Sp moved from 0.8 to >3p when announcement was made in the backdrop of the early 2016 short lived resources/gold bull market.

Around 628m shares at the time so from mcap of 5m to >18m, today <8m.

23/06/19 insiders options granted at 1.8p until 22/06/21, 20.75m total would give 370k to lnd if fully exercised.

04/11/16 BH exercised all 7m to hold 64314119 or 9.1% of total 707488001 shares.

03/03/17 quilvest up to 13.7%

07/04/17 nw Ontario prospectors of year award for bam E discovery at junior lake.

13/09/17 lamaune debt settlement lnd got 576192087 or 90% of lamaune shares as settlement of loan. This was in connection of transfer of iron ore and gold assets dating back to 2012. Lamaune was indebted to lnd to amount of cnd 6.159m.

Remerged as they reassessed the gold deposits may be contiguous with bam E and wanted to continue to explore area. Settlement was related partly trans as both BH and RP were directors of both Co's.

Landore Canada now owns 90.2% of lamaune.

19/10/17 placing raised 1m from 50m at 2p. BH took 1.75m took to 70.644m 8.5%. RP took 1.25m up to 13.39m 6%. HG took 500k up to 2.85m 0.3%. Post placing total shares 835915779. Mcap following admission 26/10/17 was sp 1.9p and mcap 15.88m.

23/03/17 quilvest reduced from 13.6 to 13.3% notified 30/10/17 maybe typo.

06/11/17 aquisition of lamaune increased junior lake from 22k hectares to 26k increasing archean greenstone belt coverage from 19km to 31km.

Directors considered 2nd listing on tsx. To do so need to provide updated ni43101 so engaged rpa to complete junior lake tech report due q4 2017. At time bam E had Feb 2017 mre of 301k oz with upgrade to include 11km of drilling in 2017. B4-7 (the grassy pond sill) Ni Cu Co from jan 2013 had mre of 2.695mt at 1.24%Nieq in indicated with 33kt contained Cu with 17km drilling upgrade to occur. VW which is Ni Cu Co has jan 2010 mre of 3.73mt at 0.47%Ni eq indicated and 0.72mt at 0.49 Nieq inferred with combined contained metal of 21.7kt.

AIMO

Got some at 0.4p looks very cheap to me, have been close to buying many times since below 1p so counting myself pretty lucky so far.

GLA

PCY Gibellini pea data for peer comparison upon Haggan SS release

https://www.prophecydev.com/files/Gibellini_2018_PEA_Technical_Report.pdf

All prices/costs in usd
Overall opex 15.26/t
Capex 116m with a 2yr build time
Pea assumed long term V2O5 price at …
…for mine planning and financial analysis 12.73/lb
….for cut off grade for calculation of resource and reserves 14.64/lb (up from 10.81 tech report 2017)
Base case grade used 0.26%, their +30% sensitivity grade is 0.34%
3mt/a with average recovery 62% with three types of ore with various recoveries, oxide 60%, transition 70%, reduced 52%.
14yr LOM
Pre tax npv7 411m with 56.5% irr and 1.6yr payback
Post tax npv7 383m with 50.8% irr and 1.72yr payback
Npv7 is at zero at V2O5 @ 7.33/lb
Operating cash cost 4.77, aisc 6.28, breakeven 7.76 all on a per lb V2O5 basis.
Measured and indicated resource 22.95mt at 0.286% for 131.34m lbs
Inferred resource 14.97mt at 0.175% for 52.3m lbs
Novel processing technique, heap leach solvent extract but not with usual EW, instead acid strip and precipitation of final product. Acid consumption of 80lb/t
Vrfb electrolyte investigated, SX resin gave acceptable results and needed 3 stages of sx for impurity levels required
2.5% nsr in royalty outstanding, detail connected to royalty uses 7/lb payability differentiator
40m closure cost
40 degree pit shell

Just some of the important bits taken from their pea to allow comparison of projects when Haggan SS is finally released.

So far Gibillini looks…
size wise much smaller 130 v 320m lbs
lower grade 0.286 vs 0.35%
higher confidence… has a measured resource

Big deal is the environmental bits, Gibellini to me at the mo seems less controversial/problematic on this front, looking forward to reading this section of the SS and interested to see the closure cost estimate, delicate balance that one I think.

Project valuations within Co - pcy mcap >50m and aura <10 currently both in usd, both unclear as pcy has large Ag project in boliva and aura has tiris U in Mauritania.

Good interview with pcy some extra numbers and extra details included, especially insight into grade towards the end.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weoWN900taM

100usd/lb V lol.
Could easily be typos etc pea is in 1st link for ref.

AIMO ATB

No idea about things like that im afraid, has not been easy to buy either hundreds of thousands, or multiple (short succession) tens of thousands trades for at least a couple of weeks now. I had to make several smaller buys to get my averaging down to go through, sometimes only managed it via limit buying.

No clue why, no clue how to spell resource either today apparently.

Expecting more interest (good or bad) from the scoping study which is overdue by 10 days.

ATB

Just my initial thoughts on the rns

Haggan resourse updated....

42mt at 0.35% for 320mlbs or 147kt of v2o5 now in indicated. Roughly 19yrs production at 7500t/a as pr recently mentioned, (not accounting for recovery loss etc). Lower grade than the inferred resource from 2018. Inferred was (for coherent zone) 49mt at 0.42% for >430mlbs in 2018.

Seems that based solely on vanadium, breakeven grade of 0.076%, additional boost from byproducts seems likely to me but no detail yet. Not seen this figure before as far as I'm aware but depending on how they calculated it (in relation to current v2o5 price etc) they seem to be suggesting the full 13.3b lbs is theoretically economically recoverable based on present data used in the calculation. I'm not sure if that will be in relation to cash costs or aisc?

Using conservative cut off grade of 0.2 global resourses including inferred and indicated now 2bt at 0.3% for 13.3blbs or 6mt v2o5 obviously vast majority remain inferred.

No mention of measured resourse.

Using 0.4% cut off grade (as used in headline of 2018 rns) now got 11mt at 0.44% for 101mlbs v2o5 still larger than gibellini of PCY (mcap currently 54m usd) at almost same grade.

Seems like a reduction in size and grade of the coherent high grade zone from previous resource rns. Importantly now, however, have the upgrade to the confidence of indicated category (economics can be made public) and drilling didn't define the extent of the high grade zone so great potential to increase the size subject to more expenditure on drilling etc.

The break even grade excluding any byproduct credits is surprisingly low, now seems to add some justification to last years global resource headline including material to 0.1% grade for 15b lbs v2o5 which was met with some condemnation on this bb from some.

What price for v2o5 needs to be realised to reach the break even grade? So far no data.

Important to remember the drilling for this upgrade was done on severe budget. Probably why there's no measured resourse and why size has shrunk, more dollars on more drilling would very likely sort this but it all takes money which is recently harder to come than usual.

SS eagerly awaited.

Corrections welcome, just a quick first impression from the asx release this morning.

AIMO ATB

Brought my average down to around 0.11p this week and last, hoping this is close to a bottom at the mo.

GLA

Bought in here 2 weeks ago today. Have been adding (small scale) to several of these junior gold mining Co's from producing to exploration. Spreading the risk and awaiting what seems highly likely to be a further and substantial inflow of liquidity into the space at some point in the next 12-18 months. Was watching here in 0.6s but no funds available so just below 0.9p will do me fine.

Far from the lows this year I know but I think shares like this can move a long long way when sentiment shifts in the general psyche.

Getting some silver exposure too. Was thinking of buying physical metals but just thinking I can maybe cut some of these juniors (if all works as I hope obviously, and not expecting it to be paper loss or stress free by any means) at 200 to 300% to a free ride basis with 50% ish released profit and use some / all of the cash as funds for the physical which shouldn't (hopefully) have moved up as fast.

Price seems to be heading in a direction that will create a golden cross pretty soon, I've heard/observed sometimes that can create additional interest.

Difficult to gauge how much to add overall because if a market liquidity crisis occurs the guys in the know tend to agree even these kind of stocks will plunge temporarily as at the end of the day they are still traded stocks. So even better opportunity may arise. This is another reason for my attempt at a free carry position within relatively (compared to potential) low multiple in stake value.

A drop to near the year lows not impossible and I'm totally ok with that possibility as imv it would be an even better opportunity.

2 x 800k sells unlikely to prevent golden cross, imo.

Just my thoughts, best to all especially long term holders on here.

Mtl looks like a good bet to me. It's been a struggle but golds move has come at an important time for them and can hopefully get them out of a hole allowing acceleration of needed work and make up for shortfalls experienced c.f. with design maybe even become a positive feedback loop with the recent changes. Happy to wait and see.

AIMO GLA

Remember that morning well re DES. Had got myself overexposed and was a gut wrenching but important learning experience for me.

Never had much look with oil shares since, lost a lot on 88e too.

Zen rns this morning a very welcome surprise. Big thanks to all those who take the time to post great quality info and insight here. Great platform to learn and initiate my own research.

Should be an interesting end to the week here.

GLA

Just watched a new video...absolutely fascinating.

https://youtu.be/DKf0EQdKKAo

So many similarities.

Well worth watch imo.

Thanks again for continued ccc updates king.

Good weekend to all

ATB

I've done bits of work in rail surveying with regards to failure predictions and am aware that some lidar data has already been collected throughout much of the UK network.

The data in my experience is not without its limitations, but the vegetation gets in the way for the issues I predominantly inspected so it's often highly compromised. Guess that's good for me. I can see many other areas (just within rail) where this tech could save so much money and disruption as well as increased safety (let's boots on the ground yet more frequent inspection). Moving people around on the infrastructure especially in certain areas, of which there are many, is very problematic/disruptive/expensive. Much more so c.f. with a highways setting in general. The potential is definitely there waiting for a solution. Any change with regards implementation of software replacing people would likely, rightly and obviously be gradual and slow but the pressure of the purse strings if the tech proves itself should win over in the end.

Luckily in here with a low av and intrigued to see where this goes and if something/what else is in the pipeline so am happy to hold and maybe add on weakness.

Was a surprise to see the area in which the acquisition was made. Didn't expect to have any kind of relevant experience, however small.

Shareholders in the acquired company only get mno shares for their stake and the whole deal is down to the mno current shareholders so if they are happy to be diluted....

https://www.dvidshub.net/video/575268/seeing-through-trees-with-new-lidar-system

AIMO GLA

Interesting trading either side of production disruption rns.

GLA