Member Info for Dave85

Not sure if your asking me ML but if you are..... I scaled my buy sizes relative to the risk reward which I perceived at the times I decided to buy.

Dont get me wrong each and every time I bought, I thought it was cheap, but there is cheap and there's cheap.

85% of my holding was bought below 1.5p and the majority of that below 1p in the short period it was possible to do so.

My av is now around 1.3p. I have posted periodically throughout the 2 ish years that imv nothing was changing yet the sp was going down and the RvR ever improving.

I was lucky that

a I was watching at the lows

b I had funds available (more so than I had had when sp 3p+)

c very little competion existed for buying - up until the morning of the announcement I got quotes to buy straight away each time (biggest single purchase 150k shares)

The news re the new PM being more pro Russian than the previous and the investment into madneuli buoyed my confidence, and as it dropped sub 1p I added and added pretty much right up to the news (in my mind the sub 1p buys carried 100 bagger potential within 5 years - *before news of tenure reduction).

I could have been even luckier - if the news had been 1 day later I would likely have got to >1m but very satisfied with my holding now.

As I've posted before, your posts over the time I've read the bb have been much appreciated, GL with your investment here and thanks for the info your have provided.

The tone of both you and GG's posting lately tho inspired me that sentiment was really at rock bottom, which I took as a positive (without any bad news obviously).

Turns out good old Thomas Fuller was right eh, so far at least - still happy to wait and see.

Apologies if your question was aimed elsewhere.

Btw I am very much small time, tend to buy and hold most long term, and have holdings in many companies but most are very modest. It's only when I see the kind of opportunity I saw the other day when I start to risk grand after grand day after day.

ATB

Only reason people care so much about how a company, that was worth 2m odd mcap this time last month, is now worth roughly the same again this morning.

Is because bullish or bearish - sp wise, they understand (or think they do) the potential (some of), of where the company mcap can go.

Company essentially halved in traded value last week from one month prior on no publically announced change in circumstance, and virtually nobody cared to comment.

Now news released (not placing conatations weather good or bad) and the mcap goes back to similar level and suddenly dozens of people are beside themselves and see fit to expand effort in writing and posting strong opinions on a public forums late into a working evening.

Imo, the very level of interest, demonstrates the potential and therefore financial stakes between buying sub 1p, buying 1 to 2p and 2p+, when taken in context to where these people see the potential sp in the months and years to come.

On a personal note, I sold in the 20s and started buying back around 13p seeing good value, continued to buy in at 8s 6s 5s 3s 1.8s before significantly averaging down by buying much bigger stakes, first sub 1.5p then sub 1p right up to yesterday morning.

As of now after around 2 years of paper loss I'm back very much in profit. Massive thankyou to the bod involved here who have stook this out for so long. The potential loss of tenure over the further license is very disappointing and a massive blow to how far geo mcap can go in years ahead. The potential scale of TS and others is truly exciting based on and along with the pre existing exploration info.

Again, imo, the main reason this has been so hard and taken so long, is because someone figured out just how good this consolidated chunk of land could be and decided to try and retrieve it/some of it.

Will they succeed and how much will be lost from the geo stable?

In the context of 10, 20, 30m mcap, no consideration really need be placed on this issue. Kbe and dab can take care of that just fine.

If we not drilling at TS we wont need the full 2m usd for the previously planned 6 month work programme (will now be shorter as some work completed) designed to get kbe to dfs completion and further the following 2 pipeline assets.

Roughly 1m was to get kbe to, go/no go decision stage.

The other 1m to explore dab and ts.

Now likely max they need is 1.5m for the work programme. Plus say 0.5 for WC etc.

Question people should consider, how many shares will it take to raise that, because when they raised 7m at 16p they did so in an environment where institutions were offering double at the same price. Interest was there for a reason and the reason is coming back swiftly.

People know that, and are trying very hard to buy the company at a price where losing its only assets was priced in, at a time when that risk has seemingly been virtually removed with the NAM confirming the reduced tenure.

AIMO ATB

Arriving

Sounds promising to me, only been a holder here a couple of months but so far been very satisfied by how things are going. Uptick in newsflow and attention seems likely over 2020.

Think I may have got lucky with my timing on this one.

AIMO GLA

Sub 1p without bad news.

Its happened

How long does it take to refuse an exploration permit extension to a jv with an existing mining concession?

An opportunity, imo

GLA

Still trading at a material discount to nav, now share buy back to gain effectively discounted further exposure to uranium price.

From rns 3 months to buy back

maximum of 8,821,572 Ordinary Shares at a maximum price (excluding expenses) of 105 per cent. of the average market value of an Ordinary Share as derived from the AIM Appendix to the London Stock Exchange Daily Official List for the five business days immediately preceding the date of purchase

Sounds good to me. So far not managed to break out of descending trend channel, however now bouncing up off the 50dma on the daily chart. Imo this news/related buying will be enough to break the down trend.

Happy to wait and see.

Totally agree with you btw noonereallyknows

This space is so small. One of my main areas of focus tho, hoping the patience pays off at some point.

AIMO GLA

2/2

Placings with associated newsflow including uptick/revival of zeb progress, later coupled with suggestion of aquisition into hot commodity asset - lithium and associated BoD member - HK.

160m at 0.4p (£4) in Nov 16
171.1m at 0.45 (£4.50) Jan 17
11.1m at 4.5p (£45) Feb 17

Mcap went from around 800k to over 25x that in around 12 months.

Looking where we are now....

No need for hot commodity aquisition suggestion - have an existing discovery (very early stage) owned 100%.

In need of funding - possible upcoming placing.

Connected individuals with expertise related to said hot commodity - RM from UMH.

Gold seeing most significant breakout in many years and resourse stock resurgence gaining in prominence in generalist investor physche.

What's different this time.

Nickel sentiment is better - ev narrative.

Nickel price is better

Share register is tighter.

No funding need merely for aquisition

Scarcity of hot commodity greater c.f lithium - perhaps more prolonged more extreme price action going forward (even absolute radio using banter about stealing cat converters to fill between tracks this morning - word getting around).

The similarities exist here if history is to be used as an indicator of what's possible. My sentiment is positive backed up by long speculation. I'm barely even averaging down now just think it's cheap and has great prospects at current value.

Just my take, how I see things anyways.

Btw was just thinking if the time does ever come the 50m or so accumulated losses on the books, (pointed out by wignit as a negetive) could be a nice sweetener for a purchaser and an incentive to keep the asset controlled by uru and for uru to be taken out as is/as a whole?? Did the Burgs write off increase this?? Just a though.

Just thinking and recording how I am so, allow a furture look back to see if right or wrong in my positive thinking here.

AIMO ATB

1/2

For me the best indicator of speculation here (positive or negetive) is buy vs sell volume. If a buy occurs someone is possibly speculating to the upside conversely on the sell side. The indication provides no evidence toward timescale of said speculation or reasoning behind it. Other reasons for buys and sells exist e.g. attempted/successful manipulation, need the money (irrespective of opinion of future sp movement) - sell shares/ close shorts, etc etc so the indicator is far from simple/binary, imo.

Since the 4p+ peak (mcap >20m) early 2017 seems clear the overall net speculative opinion has been negative. Since 3rd May 2019 (mcap <1m) however the opposite seems quite clearly the case.

At our current level and with 'sum' of the dynamics I outlined yesterday seeing, imo, a net improvement, my personal speculative opinion is very positive and I can evidence this (to myself) from my increased & increasing long exposure.

Each poster has a speculative opinion minute to minute, the true nature of that opinion can only really be significantly evidenced/reaches a meaningfully significant threshold if a change occurs to increase/decrease their personal exposure to uru - long or short. They can have negetive or positive sentiment towards the stock but not a speculative opinion, surely that requires a speculation - a trade of some kind? Likely debatable.

Only they can definitively know how that meaningful speculative opinion/trading happens/chages minute by minute. What people say here and what people do (in terms of actual trades) on these boards, imo, are often at significant variance. No insinuations meant at all, and I know this is a statement of the obvious but just outlining my opinion of the evidence of current balance of speculative opinion being marginally positive. (Since May last year).

If historic performance is being put forward as a way to consider possible future liklihoods. It interests me that, zooming out and in hindsight, the early 2017 rise followed/constituted.....

Late 2015/early 2016 resource (lead by gold price) sector general sentiment uptick.

Uru mcap at close to historic lows

AIMO

Over 40m traded on asx today, multiples to the norm, just an observation, GM approaching.

ATB

2/2
Imo, it is little wonder opinions on the current worth of uru vary so much between posters on the BB. The truth is, currently, any value anyone decides upon is purely speculative, obviously. If we knew the mining license would be granted in mid-2021 and that by then Ni would be stable close (+/-15%) to 12 usd/lb, uru still had less than 10 million shares and the pfs was fully funded and nearing completion. Then a commensurate sp of £5 would be considered very undervalued (max 50m mcap), under these conditions a realistic sale price around 40% of npv (hundreds of millions) may be little questioned.
However, this is not the case and even if it was these are just some of the dynamics/risks surrounding zeb and uru.
The fickle nature of the principal commodity price, the troubled in-flux nature of the jurisdiction, the controversy surrounding mgmt, the extreme optionality of the deposit type and the recent pgm discovery make uru just so/too(?) speculative.

Conversely the current mcap of just over 1m gbp is close to historic lows with recent (2017) highs around 25m, even with the likely upcoming dilution (in whatever form, at whatever price and at whatever level (company/project) it takes place, likely (if past raising precedence is an indication) leaves a lot of room for profit just within a mcap mean reversion, i.e. ignoring any speculative value added effect such a dilution may accompany.

8.5usd/lb is the number (from pea), we breached it last year (for hours), it can happen and I think it will. Is 8.5 really still the number tho, rand to the dollar was around 8 (2012) now around 14, so around 40% reduction, what is the number now, given pea’s in general only have a +/- accuracy around 30% (from memory), imo, 8.5usd/lb could now represent the max needed to make zeb worthwhile making happen (on current info), ignoring all other factors (BEE, free carried interests etc etc).

License wise the BB discussed the apparent ‘one time only renewable’ nature of prospecting licenses at the time the previous expiration was approaching, I thought they may have to apply for a mining license as a prospecting renewal would be unavailable. In actuality the renewal was granted in apparent contravention to the mprda legislation. In practice it seems things work differently.

The mining license would be a completely different event to the prospecting, a watershed moment of huge significance, imo, lasting decades and allowing a potential sale with a real level of certainty (& work done/time spent factor) attached for any buyer.

AIMO ATB

1/2

Many dynamics to consider/form an opinion/speculate on with uru – not at all unusual for a junior mining stock, but perhaps more unknown/unknowable here than most.

First the commodity – fickle nickel, prone to wild price swings up and down and, technology dependant (HPAL successfulness/future battery chemistries), expected by many industry analysts to be entering a certain degree of bullish price movement. Its production is even more time & capital intensive than the norm (already very high) in mining.

South Africa – an emerging economy, part of bricks (again many analysts are bullish towards EM’s) but the country is in a mess especially re eskom and GM/CR have made some positive movement but, industry has had a mixed (at best) response. Uncertainty remains and investment draw appears somewhat subdued so far.

Deposit – existing large low grade NI43101 (yes non jorc (Australian code) but resource is NI43101 (Canadian code and similarly respected)) compliant with a pea based on 8.5usd/lb. The grade & scale means the NPV swings from hugely negative (worthless) to hugely positive (worth £100’s m) as nickel spot (or more correctly? realistically realisable sale/contract price) moves. The difficulty in ascribing value is complicated by the relatively unstudied magnetite value, opacity surrounding detail of the 2012 pea, forex fluctuations, technological advances since 2012, the recent critical zone material including pgms.

Development stage – on the surface the deposit is at NI43101 inferred and indicated defined stage with a pea, but agree, really the pea is now outdated and much of its detail (I understand) is not publically available. Compounding this is the apparent discovery of higher grade Ni, high grade Ni & high grade (considering depth) pgm, the extent of this discovery is highly unknown, a recent presentation slide shows IP result images which invoke (in me) speculation of a sizable resource. The basket price of the 2018 drills are currently improving weekly – palladium last week became the most expensive (of the 4 ‘precious metals’) ever. The discovery could be worth >100m or be completely uneconomic even at today’s great prices.

Management – JZ in some ways a proven operator in terms of raising very significant capital, increasing a company’s share price & successfully raising capital at/above highs - reducing dilution. Also proven he can & is willing to do little and get paid (received cash terms) to match when the market is not conducive towards raising money. In the past he has stood up against the under valuation of a company, including accumulated losses/expenses into how the company should be valued, again to prevent excessive dilution. On the other hand some/many have a poor opinion of some/many of his practices and those of some of his associates. His communication with shareholders, especially on an individual basis, is unanimously (including self-proclamation) poor/minimal at times.

AIMO

*my post 28/07/18

My quick take is that….

Propecting rights passed from umh/san jv to uru (lpu) 2014 (at this stage max available length - 5 yrs according to mprda) then uru rns 01/11/16 stating renewed for 2 years (at this stage (1st renewal) max available 3 yrs according to mprda). H2 2018 therefore - lots of discussion and research re license renewals but very little comms form uru until….uru rns 29/10/18 (last minute) stating prospecting license renewal applied for and expected awaiting countersigning. Then rns 04/12/18 renewal granted 03/12/18 for 3 years (max available (not apparently available at all according to mprda (my post 23/07/18))) to 02/12/21.

Side notes

UMH pay offs can still come, potentially, long term as 1.5% royalty on all revenue generated from the Zebediela project, revenue not profit, also possible 2m 1% uru buy back (within 2 years of mining license grant – implied concurrent zeb value - 200m usd).

Only need indicated to get a good sale price, imo, - allows conversion to probable reserve (economic viability within stated parameters). Consistency of resource allows relatively very large tonnage into indicated per metre drilled, demonstrated by currently 30ish holes and near half billion tonnes indicated resource.

Given size of inferred resource realistic 10.5km (av 350m/hole) campaign to double indicated resources - money well spent, imo, especially if raised at a decent level (equivalent mcap >20m gbp). Doesn’t sound like JZ strategy is in that direction tho (fundamentally proved up), his predecessor (RL (UEX)) recently did a crux investor interview, host is good at prizing strategic insights from mgmt…maybe one day. Strategic insights re pgm (critical zone material) discovery in relation to existing Ni resource/study stage and apparent preference for asset sale would be most welcome.

Back to licences there are lots of options here but one possibility is, stick on current Ni resource - fundamentally proved up, so transition to mining license makes sense, 2021 expiry of exploration license in this case inconsequential. As of right now (post lodging of mining right application and application acceptance) exclusive right to have application for zeb prospecting and/or mining licenses accepted lie within uru (lpu) only refusal of mining license and expiry of prospecting license change that (or umh share return, threshold definition and subsequent contravention). Upon mining license grant control theoretically extends for 30yrs irrespective of expiry of prospecting right. Interesting point that strikes me writing this, if/once lpu are granted mining license does this affect the return to umh clause in anyway? removing one of my niggles re uru.

AIMO ATB

*anto

Evening anti, dont know much about them either.

My very quick thought as I'm off to bed.

Clause 1 no probs at all seems very reasonable.

2. No probs useful in fact to have a first port of call and some likely continuity within the associated areas covered.

Caveat to this my previously outlined concerns re potential conflict of interest.

3. Again seems very reasonable to me. Raising funding of late has be excruitiatingly difficult in junior resourse stocks (on the whole). 5% would seem well deserved to me.

4. This is the only one that would significantly affect a purchaser in my view an actual contingent liability (I think its called could easily be wrong on that tho). However the fact it is there and the level of it is definitly not unusual in the mining sector.

Need to remenber we dont have all details of the agreement, are there ways to exit, what is the agreement timeline/expiry etc.

These are the guys doing the work on the ground. They managed to get the prospecting right renewed they got the licenses joined together, they applied for and had the mining right application accepted. Likely involved with discovery of critical zone material on zeb properties etc etc. So far it's going ok in my view.

Like I say I dont know much about them, even if I did, without seeing the whole thing....only so much I would likely be able to say on how good/bad it is looking forwards to, especially a jv with a non linked umbono entity. Sale wise no so difficult, imo.

On balance for the stage we at overall a good thing. Further strategic alliance from rns may indeed play out to be with umbono linked entity. Who knows?

AIMO ATB

You were very right about what a contract win in this area would do for the sp here Candid, your posts/views here - much appreciated.

Great news today here and I completely agree with you - 'this is just the start.'

Holding on tight here, in some ways a bit of a hedge against part of how I make my living. So happy to see how it plays out for a good while yet.

These guys got this sorted pretty quick in my book. May not have to wait long.

AIMO ATB

Those terms have been included in the same reports going back years, it is something Ive been watching out for any change in since I first saw it. Has always been the same.

Ive previously mentioned the potential, imo,l for conflict of interest re UMH controlling the various project progress elements and deliverables to the level which they do (april 17 services contract) at the same time as these terms (anto 21.30 post) being in place. The thing that reassures me is that until set they cannot be breached, & a reasonable period over which a breach would be defined would provide warning of any consequence.

The amount of money left isn not the surprise to me, much rather the length of time they have managed to continue without raising further funds up to now since early 2017.

Good amount of time to go for a junior resource stock on aim, plenty of my others have diluted very significantly since then. OK some have achieved more, but the strategy here appears to be minimising dilution (while resource market sentiment is poor - currently improving, imo).

Looking back a few years and playing out potential scenarios re placing followed by newsflow & a at least an appearance of accelerated progression, demonstrates possible gains from here (again at around the 1m mcap level).

Interesting how the mood/posting sentiment from some descends as the risk/reward improves and sp and mcap gets lower in relation to asset potential value.

Nothing in the latest rns significantly surprised me, main negatives that are portrayed on this board are, timescale to completion of license prerequisite deliverables and remaining funds. Valid points to consider but both the low amount of funding available & the ball park length for the license studies were very much in the range of reasonable predictability.

I admit to thinking a license decision would be possible this year but did consider H2 as most likely so to be likely 2 to 6 months off is no biggy personally, I was pretty set that we had virtually no funds left. We were told months & months ago funding was needed & that we would be informed when secured.

Important to acknowledge the possibility of simultaneously completing a PFS and/or a DFS alongside the license prerequisites.

Yes a placing may come & yes it may be discounted to sp of late but it can only get so bad before we can participate (500% premption right) and if I have the right I likely will. As I say above placings at lows in uru have most recently been followed by multibagger gains. I see no reason for a repeat to be impossible, in fact I expect a repeat quite likely.

Nickel sentiment is much higher since early 2017 since had higher gradess discovered, now have evidence of critical zone material at zeb & the associated pgms, pgm sentiment and prices are very much higher than early 2017, added to this is news of mining license application following on from eventual successful amalgamation & renewal (prospecting).

AIMO ATB

Cheap at the mo, cheapest it's been, cant get a quote (barc) so limits it is.

Dfs complete, low capex, low opex, permitted uranium project with some off take.

Not many about and none valued like this, not by along way.

AIMO happy new year all & ATB

£1m buy.

31-Dec-19 13:04:49 203.7191 730,000 1m

Big money seems to be thinking uranium market shows promise from here.

Update fyi

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ud-fPKnj3Q&t=726s

ATB