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Tibbs As far as I am aware they didn't revise the quarterly report they revised the Group Resource and Reserve Statement presented on 19th November.
You must get your head around the reduction in grades in the open pit during the last quarter as an average impacted by them mining the below low cut off grade and classifying as ore and delivered to the "leach pad" rather than treating this as waste and dumping on the waste dump.
I am not sure what revised quarterly report you are talking about and where you are getting the open pit feed grade of between 1.0 and 1.2 in the early years.
A feed grade isn't an open pit or underground grade it is an average of both.
Regarding the question to close down the open pit and just mine the more lucrative underground. If they did this the number of tonnes through the plant would increase the costs involved in processing by uneconomic multiples and the reduction in ounces would make the mine totally uneconomical.
3bear the first quarter is always a bit softer because they programme the major services of equipment and plant at that time of year, after the year end push and the weather is marginally better for the grafters in the workshops etc.
Daz not sure 4th qtr was overly spectacular if you take the second half of the year the average is 119,000 ounces per Qtr and they admit to tonnes/ounces sitting on the ROM from 3rd qtr process plant repair shortfall.
I bet they were sweating a bit come a week to go to the year end and I still believe they have the capacity to meet the targets for 2024, 119,000 ounces a Qtr gives them above low end target.
There is so much flexibility above and below ground and providing there are no disasters in the processing it should be an achievable mid production target.
I will need to take a look at the original RNS but don't get approx 100,000 ounces over LOM proven against probable making such a difference as there have been far more impressive RNS announcements to effect the SP, is it maybe the market catching up on the very good year end results?
Pinching from 1st quarter to make the year end result will still mean getting the ounces out of the ground and through the process because has to pass audit so has to be fact not a lie.
Tibbs, Pardey is history forget about him you can't change history .
What I suggest you do is go to the Centamin web site, Assets, Sukari and then click on the 2023 Technical Report. OK it is what it says a very technical summary but have a scan through it and look at the various diagrams and you will see that the area called Cleopatra is included in the projected pit and I think but don't know but this could be incorporated in the area that Capital have been opening up.
Tibbs Sukari open pit is no different to any other open pit the grades vary across the mine it is the nature of geology. It is always going to be the case that underground will possess higher grades but underground mining is expensive and volumes lower as the ore is in narrower veins again it is the structure of geology. Open pit is normally all about volume because that is the nature of how the ore is dispersed.
Without the open pit the underground isn't viable and the open pit will struggle now without the underground.
Tibbs, Like any business it develops if it is to be successful and the open pit has been and will continue to be essential to the development at Sukari. The underground workings has been paid for by the revenue from the open pit and now the higher grades from underground add support to the open pit.
This is what the mine plans were all about from the start it is all about the grades and blend at the time of processing this is why they pretty much had to get into the underground early.
I am also generally disappointed with the low end result as far as ounces but pleasantly surprised with the fiscal controls to bring AISC down and increases in resources and the increased worth of the ounces. So overall pleased with the progress that has been made and pretty confident that your mate on the train will stay on board come April.
Rebess not too suspicious but it wouldn't surprise me if some of the Capital machines were borrowed for a concerted effort to get over the line. Also interesting that they sold 5,000 ounces more than they produced in the 4th qtr so they had some flexibility.
Tibbs where did you get the quote that the open pit is a drag on profitability, because as I see it without the open pit contribution you won't cover your costs?
Yes less profitable than the earlier years but many successful businesses have the less profitable aspects but they pay the bills and others pay for the expensive holidays.
I haven't read where Horgan has said Capital are opening up high grade areas the way I see it is they were assisting in opening up areas to add the flexibility and consistency. Yes higher grades because when the earth moved they were restricted to moving 0.5 grams per tonne until they could get back into the west wall at 2 grams per tonne.
Rebess the open pit is the best place to have low grades because it is the cheapest place to actually move a tonne of material. Just a quick and dirty calculation.
Capital move waste for about $2 per tonne if that tonne carries 0.67 grams and a truck carries 150 tonnes then it is carrying about 3.5 ounces so approximately $6,800 per truck at a cost of $300 per truck load.
This is an average brought down by the very low grade leach dump ore.
The dump leach at say 0.3 will still show a profit and far better than throwing on the waste dump at a cost of $300 per truck load and zero return.
Leach pads save the extra costs of the expensive processing through the plant, nowhere near as efficient but cheap way of processing very low grade ore. If the gold price was down where it was back in the late 90's it wouldn't be worth mining such low grade ore and leach dump pads were very much the way to go even with grades at 1.5 grams per tonne.
Something always better than nothing.
So what is going on we see positive news strong positive data and the SP isn't moving even with gold price over $2000 sorry I don't get it? Horgan must feel this is like a kick in the teeth what more does his team need to do?
That's more like it as we see a greater contribution from underground and a more flexible open pit and making use of the lowest grades on a dump leach. Would love to know the ounces carried over from quarter 3 to provide us with a more realistic performance but guess can be done by looking at the average of the second half of the year.
If we take the performance of second half we are looking at average by quarter of close to 119,000 per quarter so multiply by 4 and we get 476,000 ounces for 2024 so low end projection, not rocket science but looks like we are back to mining at long last.
Capex is still high but if this continues to improve efficiencies therefore reducing costs in the longer term then job well done.
mhendersen I am envious of your close to the face knowledge glad you are on this forum, Horgan and his team are gradually benefiting from the hard decisions that have been taken so credit to the newish team.
We now need the gold price to recover from the very recent nonsense.
Tibbs the maiden drill results are very good given it is what it says the maiden drill, to be honest I was very surprised how good the results were.
Blockbusters are few and far between like winning the lottery.
The Egyptian stakeholders I am sure would be impressed that Centamin have something positive so quickly to be honest as I say I was amazed to see anything as good this early in proceedings.
Don't get me wrong it isn't going to be anytime soon that they are extracting gold from these areas but small steps in the right direction.
I am not sure guessing tomorrow's numbers does us any good. As Steve says results are all that counts and tomorrow we will find out whether Centamin can meet the low end targets which I feel will be a disappointing year. To achieve the low end numbers they will need a close to record performance. Is this achievable yes it is as they have the equipment to move the tonnage, a number of benches to work from and they had some ounces sitting on the ROM after shortfall 3rd Qtr but it will depend on ore grades.
Tibbs I am not saying it is commercially viable and certainly not what Horgan and his team are saying but if you are a miner you have to start somewhere and finding resources is what the job is all about, because without additional opportunities the business has limited scope.
Steve mentioned to me that Centamin's recent RNS didn't include results hence no impact on the SP.
Results as far as I am concerned are history and the strength of an investment as far as I am concerned is the future potential. I didn't initially invest in Centamin based on results because at that time there wasn't any but the then potential was considerable.
As I say credit where credit is due as it is a step in the right direction.