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Tibbs I didn't say that I have an aversion to Cut and Paste what I said is I re read the Doropo 2023 Technical Report and the cut and paste message is basically all covered in this report.
You keep on making reference to things that happened prior to 4 years ago. Tell me what Horgan has done to upset you not what the previous twits did.
Like you I am equally p....d off with the blind alley that Horgan and his team found themselves in when a relatively minor mining occurrence of some unstable ground occurred, if it hadn't been noticed and a slip occurred then this would/could have been a serious mining issue. This minor occurrence turned into a major issue because there was nowhere else to go.
Had Horgan had time to layout and present a plan to get back to basics then I am sure the impact on the SP wouldn't have been anywhere near as dramatic, but regardless of the earth moving I am sure he was already putting plans in motion because decisions were made quickly and more contractors than just Capital had been asked to provide numbers relating to a major waste removal project.
Yes he has spent a fortune but the fortune he has spent is what should have been spent by the previous twits .
The time to judge Horgan and his team is fast approaching when the Capex is to be reduced considerably in the line of catch up. Planned Capex is still important however as equipment gets older, further developing cost savings relating to power sees a return so positive to improving the bottom line. Exploration into new resources is also important as all businesses need to grow their saleable assets.
All new developments relating to mining come with high risk and Doropo is no different. Little Sukari sounds promising but unless someone has previous knowledge of the potential very little will be seen by the way of ounces for several years, and time is a risk in itself.
I am not having a go at you I am just trying to take the emotion out of the discussion and ask what numbers don't you like or understand and the said pay back isn't 3 years it is 2.3 years.
Tibbs yes thanks as I have said I recently re read the 2023 Technical Report so there is nothing new in your cut and paste. The good thing about Cote D'Ivoire other than they speak French is that there is as I have said many times considerable experience in mining. Far more than was/is in Egypt especially if you take in additional people who will inevitably be looking for work from Mali and Burkina. It is common place in West Africa because of ECOWAS to have experienced migrant workers filling important roles. I am not talking people sitting behind desks because they will mainly be from cooler climates the important people are the guys on the ground this is where things actually get done.
From what I can see other than the resource being split over a number of areas it is a straight forward open pit operation that can be done by a local contractor or from what I am hearing maybe owner mining. If the later then they must be confident of how straight forward the resource is to manage.
I know what you are saying about the market in general but this is a Centamin discussion board and we were making reference to what is going on at Centamin.
As for putting share certificates in a drawer and forgetting about them you certainly don't do that if you are investing in mining.
Tibbs I am not a trader and yes looking back at history certainly has it's merits if done in the relatively short term.
As such Centamin provides very useful data on their Interactive Analyst spreadsheets, which allows us to see what impact certain positive and negative issues have had on production.
This helps me as an investor to look at the underlying numbers and trends.
Contrary to lies and innuendos I find Centamin in the last few years to be transparent to investors.
Also I have again read through the 2023 Technical Report for Doropo and see this prospect as a positive especially an estimated 2.3 year pay back.
So other than your worries relating to security what are your areas of concern?
Steve I have to agree history can't be changed and pretty much all of the culprits have gone and the new team are coming to an end of their announced 4 year reorganisation to get the mine back on track.
Yes it has been a painful 4 years but unfortunately there are many necessary evils that had to be suffered.
Tibbs the underground has always been crucial and that was known from day one and is why the mine design and plans are as they are. They actually got to the development stages of the underground earlier than I envisaged because early discussions were around sinking access into the lower reaches far later in proceedings.
Yes open pit will always be lower grades that is the geology but without the open pit the funds and considerable funds have been obtained from the open pit, the underground wouldn't have been possible without borrowing, and standing alone the ounces wouldn't have made the mine viable.
I think everyone agrees that Pardey was over promoted and wrong decisions came home to roost. Yes Horgan has spent a fortune but I have to begrudgingly admit some credit has to be given to the old guard because funds were available for the new team to spend.
The proof of whether Horgan and his team's decisions are the correct decisions will soon be known as I have said we are coming to the end of the 4 year cycle. No doubt the ship is steadier and we have seen some consistency and flexibility but proof of turning the ship around is hopefully to be seen by the year end, but starting with first quarter numbers.
Tibbs I again ask what numbers are you worried about at Doropo excluding the perceived security risk because as I say what I have read so far about the project it looks straight forward.
OK a few dots and crosses required but that is what the current study due to be published in a few months is all about.
Niger is 1600 miles away from Cote D'Ivoire compare Berlin to Moscow 1100 miles.
Africa Costs are what you mentioned I only responded because I don't like generic numbers because they are very dangerous. I guarantee the numbers that Centamin are working with will involve very experienced organisations with considerable knowledge of Cote D'Ivoire and other countries in West Africa. Including companies like SRK, Lycopodium, equipment manufacturers, suppliers, contractors and transport logistical organisations.
Of course nothing can be taken for advantage that is the nature of business. Numbers need to be scrutinised, analysed and decisions made. The same goes for the projects in Egypt that are maybe 3/5 years behind where Doropo has arrived.
Tony agree with what you are saying but don't think it would have been necessary to high grade as to be honest don't see any high grades, more like divert some equipment away from waste where they were supposedly ahead of the game.
What I am hoping for although Tibbs won't agree is for Doropo and other prospects in Egypt to provide positive news and would also be good to hear that ABC is moving positively.
Tibbs From the reports and figures that I have read on the Centamin web site the Doropo resource is good and way better than many. If the initial investment can be recouped in 2 years I say it is a good prospect.
Tell me what numbers you don't like and not investing in Cote D'Ivoire is like not investing in Europe because of the conflict in Ukraine.
Wagner is in West Africa by invitation to protect against ECOWAS this is entirely political driven by The Kremlin.
As I say West Africa is well represented by large mining companies and comparing Africa mining costs means nothing comparing mines is where you need to look. Comparing East Africa, South Africa, West Africa and Central Africa will give you some differences. The importance is knowing your costs this tells you if the project is viable.
You are throwing stones Tibbs into things you know nothing about. The Cote D'Ivoire armed forces are/were trained by private security. In Mozambique private ex military cleared mines and where do you think a mining company or other isolated organisations in the African bush employs their security? As I said in my previous comment most of the security is excellent and well organised and protect mine personnel and valuable assets. I am not saying that these forces are capable of fighting a group like Wagner although Executive Outcome were quite a force to be reckoned with. What I am saying is private security covers a very wide field of operation and are essential.
Are Wagner mercenaries or a private security organisation if they are controlled by The Kremlin?
Private Security Companies are active throughout Africa, involved in protecting many different entities both Governmental and Private including Mines. Back in the day I met with Executive Outcomes in Sierra Leone and Uganda, there were other groups Canadian, South African, British also a group employing ex Gurkhas. As far as I am aware Wagner weren't active back then. Most were legitimate and reassuringly present others were infamous quite obviously with hidden agendas.
Agree that No one predicted the impact on the SP of the wall movement because it wasn't only the wall movement. The wall issue shouldn't have been a major issue as this is something that happens when moving earth and rock.
The major problem was that they had nowhere else to go while they sorted out the unstable area. At the end of that same year they made the financial target.
Problem was and still is the cost of changing the mine plan to bring about the required flexibility.
Good luck Steve long may you continue to make your plans work.
steve all accurate information is useful and extremely important to all types of investors. centamin ****ed up and the share price fell through the floor this had nothing whatsoever to do with the gold price and the external data.
Tibbs Sorry but the question and answer isn't a technical bit of rocket science it is very basic will you run out of time because the licence expires mid 2024 yet results of study not likely until same date. This is what Cowichan was concerned about. The answer as I have said is what I expected because it is my experience that this is how the process works.
I asked about time lines and this when he threw in the extra snippet of information, which is again what I have experienced on many of the mines that I have worked with.
Is there any more unrest in Ivory Coast sorry Cote D'Ivoire than other parts of the world? I worked in and travelled regularly to West Africa all of my career and yes had some hairy moments but there are as many opportunities as there are problems.
Look at the mining companies working in West Africa and you will see that it isn't a no go area far from it.
As I have said before West Africa has people with considerable mining experience and feel comfortable with this being an area that Centamin are invested in.
Grades are OK because the strip ratio sounds to be acceptable and the pay back is said to be remarkably quick so I am looking forward to the mid year study details.
Tibbs, When I ask a question of Centamin I actually say can they have someone involved respond. Where do you think the IR department or the PR agency get the answers, hopefully from people who are actually involved and know what is going on?
Sorry I don't understand I asked a couple of questions and got the answers that I was pretty much expecting.
One of the questions related to Cowichan's concerns relating to the licence expiring mid 2024.
It is a normal course of events that an exploration licence is followed by an application for a mining licence if the property is deemed as viable.
As far as I am concerned I am reassured that Doropo is moving in the right direction.
So what is it you want to hear?
Tibbs, I would rather have someone on the ground floor of the business respond to my questions than people on the periphery of the business. The guy who I spoke to knows what is going on and what he is saying makes sense and fits with what I pretty much thought would be the response. Even the early move towards opening up the mine and preparing for the start up process follows what I have experienced previously.
Rebess yes approval can be denied if the numbers in the plan don't stack up when/if the Ministry of Mines personnel/advisors/consultants analyse the application.
Given the time and the number of studies that have been done I would suggest they will be confident especially if they are looking at the access roads, camp prior to approval.
Sorry I should have said my question related to Doropo and my question has been answered fully and with a little extra detail than just how the licence expiring is being handled.
I asked the question and got a reply that I was expecting as the current licence is valid for exploration and does expire mid 2024 .
The response from one of Centamin's corporate analysts is as follows:-
We have until the middle of 2024 to submit our application for a mining license, with an additional 90-day period taking us to late Q3. However, we intend to submit our mining license application (DFS + ESIA) by the middle of 2024.
We then envisage a 3-6 month approval process, pending approval, we will be in a position to go to the board and make a final investment decision.
We are also considering the potential to expedite the final construction timeline by completing some low cost early works (roads, equipment downpayments, construction camp etc.) ahead of license approval.
So all sounds positive.
Cowichan are you saying that a mining licence expires mid year or a prospecting licence expires mid year? As I read it Doropo can still apply for a mining licence after which they have a time period to go mining or indeed as you say sell it on if doesn't fit their core business model. Certainly a good question to ask at the next presentation of results.
Problem with politicians is that they know nothing about how a business should be run and therefore regardless of professionals any decisions will need to go to debate and a committee will then need to be formed and best of luck if a decision is made.