Re:OPEC /gas on the up30 Nov 2016 22:15
OPEC Cut Could See LNG Prices Rise
By Susan Sakmar - Nov 29, 2016, 2:38 PM CST
Natural Gas Storage
With most of the energy world focused on the upcoming OPEC meeting and whether oil ministers will agree on production cuts in order to help boost oil prices, it’s a good time to review why the LNG industry also closely follows the price of oil.
Traditional Pricing Structure for LNG—Oil Linked Pricing
The vast majority (approx. 70 percent) of the world’s LNG trade is priced using a competing fuels index, generally based on crude oil or fuel oil, and referred to as “oil price indexation” or “oil-linked pricing.” The original rationale for oil-linked pricing was that the price of gas should be set at the level of the price of the best alternative to gas. Historically, the best alternative was heavy fuel oil, crude oil or gas oil. While the substitutability of oil and gas has decreased over time, the traditional oil-linked pricing remains.
x
This is particularly the case in the Asia-Pacific region where LNG contracts are typically based on the historical linkage to the Japanese Customs-cleared Price for Crude Oil (JCC, or the “Japanese Crude Cocktail”). This is because when LNG trade first started in Japan, Japanese power generation was heavily dependent on oil so early LNG contracts were linked to JCC in order to negate the risk of price competition with oil.
For suppliers, oil-linked contracts have traditionally provided a means to secure project financing and a return on investment. Since LNG projects are multi-billion dollar investments, underpinning the project with long-term, oil-linked contracts is usually necessary to secure project financing by lenders. For buyers with security of supply concerns, most notably Japan and Korea, oil-linked contracts have also ensured that enough new LNG supply comes on the market since the long-term contracts underpin the project and reduce the risk for the project developer.
In North America, the gas market originally operated in a similar manner with long-term, oil based contracts. When the North American gas markets were liberalized in the 1980s and 1990s, a “hub” system developed whereby natural gas is now traded at over forty principle centers, or hubs, spread across North America. The best known is Henry Hub in Louisiana, which serves as the pricing reference for NYMEX gas futures contracts.