Member Info for DarkArches

Any reason for the large increase today relative to other pubs? Is it now too late for Supercharger to buy back in? The board will be quieter without it.....not sure if that's a good or a bad thing .

@Majorboy. Very likely there is no magic bullet vaccine. Perhaps we get something like a flu-jab each year where it's more a hit-and-hope approach. Thankfully, as more and more data comes in Covid19 looks less and less deadly, with many of the most vunerable already having sadly succumbed in March/April. Even W.H.O is now voicing opposition to further lockdown. I think one way or another people will resume ordinary lives next year.

Worth bearing in mind for a 'post-covid' recession/depression that bars are traditionally viewed as a safe haven/defensive stock in hard times. Can't afford that £1000 holiday?....take your pennies down to the bar and drown your sorrows in company.

It has been clarified that pubs serving food CAN remain open even under tier 3 (severest) restrictions. Drink can ONLY be served with a 'substantial' meal (cheesy quavers ?!?) which perversely could drive sales.

In areas of the country subject to the highest levels of restrictions pubs are to close but it appears that restaurants can stay open. Additionally the new guidelines state that: 'Alcohol can still be served under the 'very high' alert level but it must be purchased with a meal'. (presumably intended for restaurants)

I'm just wondering if this offers our food-led pubs a workaround? Perhaps pay the council a smallish fee to reclassify if required.

@difranco As I understand it, the Pub will have to have to be fully empty (staff and customers) cleaned and locked down for the night by 10pm.

@ KahunaJim. Are you saying this data isn't publicly available? A shame as it's the kind of information I would be happy to pay for. I wonder if good current demand could partly be down to pubs needing major re-stocks coming out of lockdown (ie. fleeting)

Very positive reactions from businesses to first week of the 'eat-out...' scheme. Some business owners reporting customer numbers 'like Christmas'. Now fingers crossed Thursday through Sunday remains decent.

That's great news Ash. Was it full inside as well as outside? The Marston's I went to yesterday was packed outside but probably only a quarter full inside. But if it's looking like people are getting more comfortable sitting inside during Covid then there's more hope for the Winter and the normally bumper festive season.

Fairdealer.

An interesting read.
Visited a Marston's pub today and very much a mixed bag. They certainly seem far from operational excellence, at least regarding the customer-facing side (lagging behind even Wetherspoons ! judging from this one sample), but their offering of drinks is definitely a strong point. There wasn't a single beer at the bar that someone could have surprised me with and I wouldn't have enjoyed drinking (no Carling in sight praise the Lord!). Interestingly more than half their beers were unavailable, including Pedigree. Not sure if this is a good sign (unexpectedly high demand) or cause for concern.

Regarding a few other points.

New Zealand were rather blessed in having the virus occur in their warmer months, and also in being very sparsely populated (even Auckland is rather modest). The virus seems to have hit hardest in very densely populated areas with poor air quality (the likes of Milan and New York). In terms of the UK (the South-East at least) we are more analogous to the Netherlands, Northern Italy and USA's Northeastern Seaboard. Comparing with them is probably a better prism to view UK's results through.

Covid mutating rapidly: Though this sounds scary at first, it is true of many viruses and most often results in them becoming more benign. This is actually in the viruses' 'interests' as dead hosts are no good for propogating itself. This is partly the reason why most deadly diseases stem from bacteria and not viruses. I think it is possible Covid is still with us in a few years and tolerated/mitigated much as influenza currently is as we come to understand it, and evolve best practices.

The gap before then is the rub. I am quite bullish on Marstons long term prospects IF it can survive, and currently I believe so. Partly as I believe the next few years will see high inflation, and this benefits the Marston's shareholder two-fold. Firstly, inflation raises asset prices (though this is true for all stocks). Secondly, it effectively shrinks our debt-pile. Further, should we find Covid is gone/vaccinated for, we are still likely to be in a lengthy recession. Traditionally pubs are seen as a somewhat safe-haven in troubled times.

I puzzle a lot over this company, I think that's part of it's attraction to me :)

The lack of screens is standard for Marstons. Did you try and get table service in the Marston's? If they couldn't accommodate you on that I am concerned. Was it a Marston's branded pub or a tenanted one?

@ justaquickone. The Marston's CEO Ralph Findlay came out before the Pubs reopened and said this was what they were aiming for, to have the experience as close to normal and as unclinical as possible.
And as an investor, surely you should be happy rather than shocked to see lots of customers drinking?

You're welcome Barchid. By the way, can you think of other companies which might be the target of this if it's not Marstons. I might want to speculate on them come Monday. MAB seems too high capitalisation . Perhaps a gym operator?

Could this relate to Marstons ?!: https://news.sky.com/story/uks-blank-cheque-king-osmond-plots-stock-market-comeback-with-400m-float-12030473

We fall nicely within the values being quoted and are in the right sector. Perhaps those considering selling on Monday morning should hold off on the chance. Nothing confirmed yet.

Some excerpts:
'the entrepreneur was expected to target a deal in one of the industries in which he has invested successfully in the past, such as hospitality, leisure and insurance'

'The listing of Broadstone Acquisition Corp will aim to raise between $300m and $400m, with a takeover likely to be valued somewhere in the region of double that, according to people briefed on the plan.'

'Among Mr Osmond's other major deals was the establishment of Punch Taverns, which he created in 1997 by acquiring Bass's estate of leased pubs and combining it with the £2.75bn takeover of Allied Domecq's pubs business.'

2reincarnated. My point is just that if Sandyman knows for certain there is a crash coming then presumably he's putting his money where his mouth is and taking out aggressive shorts which will make him very rich. I'd just like him to say which companies he's gone short on.

@ Sandyman 'This time it will be different'. You speak with remarkable certainty. Any short positions to share with the rest of the group?

Also. the less the low price reflects reality the more tempting this becomes as a takeover target. I think I'll continue gradually adding to my holding as/if this continues to fall.

Assuming it can't be walked down to bankruptcy this is a good thing for those wanting to build a long-term holding right?

#Steak# and chips I meant ...Freudian slip.

Marston's in July 2020: Five pounds off a stake and chips, and 30p off a realistic share price.