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On the growth I think this just needs to be better explained
Steve on the call said Dermstore isn’t a growth asset (it’s a margin play). When you take out dermstore and also the vertical integration assets the growth rate is the same as before
Also consider that 25% was set at ipo and those ipo forecasts were beat by £500m! So you can roll back some of that over performance
The hedging is done naturally everywhere except Asia but the plan is that this will be fine as they develop local nutrition manufacturing
They obviously use financial tools as much as possible but the utopia is the natural hedge and will be done
I think a better plan for short term would be telling us that M&A could be back on with current cash
They might have a plan but it's the 18 months it takes to get it up and running!
Also the new systems you need to do this (which they don't have)
Also pushing test and repeat to mexico is unproven
Ingenuity is the best route for boohoo but they have too much pride
Difficult to see a funding structure that would make this work in my view
Never say never of course
But with the macro headwinds I can't see a private equity or debt funder wanting to take the bet. How would you mode heavy debt repayments alongside capex? Especially with falling/ slowing revenues?
Trade would be a better option but who?
On the chatting to management point. Investors can and do
It is only if they are given material information that they are locked up. Jupiter could have a chat to management and say “what’s the plan for the US” and boohoo can explain. Jupiter can even suggest things
The chances are Jupiter have asked some questions and don’t like the answers
Re Jupiter selling as they might be taken over is rubbish. Jupiter is a fund manager. It makes money from managing other peoples money so the “investment” in boohoo isn’t actually their money but their clients
Also it’s hilarious how many still think the London office was a good idea. Omg what if it’s gone up 10%! Amazing!
Well that’s £7m gain that you’ll never gain as you won’t sell it (so appreciation is irrelevant) but oh yeah negative sales in US has whipped off a few hundred million so seems a great trade
@hereshopin agree but it’s fair to say they overpaid for some
I mean Dermstore was a bit of a joke tbh but wasn’t my cash as wasn’t invested at the time so I’m indifferent
Cult was a big cheque too but that’s a growth platform
Well this is grim but here’s how you can see it from here
Current market cap is £1.95bln less cash £530m (for the idiots yesterday who couldn’t work out the cash balance)
So the businesses are worth £1.5bln give or take
Ingenuity will do MINIMUM £110m commerce revenue next year and be on this is a ARR
At the 60% EBITDA stated by management that’s £60-65m EBITDA
Let’s assume ingenuity is a nice business and not something insane (not my view but for illustration) and 12x is applied. That means ingenuity is a £720m business
So £1.9bln less cash and less ingenuity means beauty and nutrition are worth £700m!
That’s madness tbh
richie i make loads of apt points but it turns out the rest of us are talking about boohoo 2021/ 22 and you're 12-18 months behind
Getting stock from china was a problem 12 months ago
No wonder you're been stumped everytime someone raises a point
Easier for you to say "deramper" and move on as otherwise you get made to look silly
I'm not a troll on boohoo I own shares (regretting atm) but I'm a realist. In the UK it's a fantastic business but management have Sh*t the bed re overseas
The point isn't internal tbh P it's more the payment of hermes etc to bring it back
Also your point re shoes and clothes isn't always true as I'd return shoes that have been tried on as they get that crease across the front!
@LDLD boohoo using ingenuity and THG poor update aren’t related. I can lesse a shop in USA to sell to customer if my aim is to sell shoes. That the value of the building then falls is irrelevant to me as I just want to sell shoes (this is quite obvious tbh)
THG poor update is due to margin pressure of whey protein it’s not that ingenuity had a poor update (not that that matters to boohoo anyway as all boohoo want to do is “lease the shop”
This is what ingenuity allows you to do. Lease a shop front anywhere in the world
Hope this helps
But for all you now have direct proof of how dumb Richie is! It’s here front and centre
He never answered any points as it shows his understanding of boohoo is shocking. He’s barking up the wrong tree
Just because he shouts “it’s going up” doesn’t make him worth listening to. Guys clueless and here’s the thread to show you
Doesn’t matter. There’s a buyer for all things
Point is is that’s shoe zone customer won’t travel twice as far to return a pair of £10 shoes if the double bus fare is £10 also. Easier just to drop off at a Hermes depot or Royal Mail etc when you’re doing your supermarket shop
Just give any example in detail where bigger store means bigger catchment. As I say works for something like bichester village or Burberry but not a shoe store
It’s common sense!
So what do shoes profits look like when you add in £30m plus returns?
Card and Shoe never wanted to do online. They have both fought it for years but now realise they have to so now they will end up “stuck in the middle” as they try to be both
In theory as long as the % of returns stays flat yoy then no you don’t care as that will be an equal weighting with revenue so a flat impact
With boohoo it’s elevated once and cause and issue but all through covid it depressed and created a windfall
Shoe won’t disclose the returns figure. But the story from Zeus (and the bit you hadn’t clocked on to) is that only works with 400 stores. But now 50% at least will be expensive online returns
So you’re excited on a chat that in reality isn’t holding true and somehow feel great?
Odd
Wait you’ve only just figured this out! And you think people on this board are “misleading”
Is this why the other week you were saying getting stock from China was the biggest issue and completely missed the point about shipping to US? They brought stock forward and guess what. People overseas didn’t want it as they have to wait so long for delivery
This explains so much!
Delivery times are a local issue as ITS ALL DONE FROM
THE U.K!
If you live in Bristol that’s a lot closer than LA. It’s not that it’s slow in the US the issue is there a slower time from U.K. to USA
“ Looking at sources relating to air cargo it looks like air passenger numbers matter for air freight capacity as they ship within the bellies of these planes too.
So, I hadn't realised that as people start taking more flights, the air freight capacity will increase, and that should help the likes of BOO”
Honestly how thick is this guy. This must be a joke? Also completely missing the fact that it’s not just number of planes that need to go back up it’s also type and no one is clear yet if the number of the larger planes will ever go back up