RE: Ggp share on the rise23 Sep 2020 08:03
Pokerchump, you asked me what the share price will be at the end of the week.
You are asking me to predict;-
1. The world gold price.
2. The Greatland Gold share price.
3. Buy and sell demand for Prim.
That's an easy one then.
Share prices are always driven by sentiment, and until there is Board change here, with the new Board being co-aligned with shareholders' aims, then there will be resistance to investing here, as other similar shares such as Starvest may be more investable. Of course, if (when) there is change, then the scenario will change enormously, so that is for the medium term.
1. Let's consider the world gold price. My feeling is that the negative sentiment may continue a bit, but it can change direction with ease if the event of global news. I am going for an £18.50 price for the end of the week.
2. The Greatland Gold SP has been the modern-day equivalent of gold-rush gold fever, and was getting seriously overbought. The corollary of that is that the Institutions appear to be taking positions as a pre-emptive strike to buy in early, should GGP become a component of one of the indices, which is likely, imho. IIs are very savvy and will have a target price in mind and rigorous buying criteria, and the exit of the short-term PIs shares will be bought up by them, in a controlled manner. This will add stability to the SP. I suspect that they will want to get in at the 21 to 22.5 range, but there are a lot of IIs that need to get in.
3. The PRIM share price. Prim has a small MCap, and the SP moves easily in change in supply and demand, as the MMs don't seem to carry a lot of stock, which makes the SP more volatile. There is also uncertainty as to whether the company still holds the GGP shares, and the current Board has sold part of the holding, which would pay their salaries for the next year and have left the rest to run. I suspect that they will have sold more by now, hopefully at the peak, locking in gains as cash.
Taking everything into account, gazing into my crystal ball, and waving my magic wand, the answer is...............
4.2 pence to 4.3 pence with an upper range estimate of 4.4 pence. Interest in the share will pick up in the next couple of weeks
However, Dyor and aimho.
I hope that answers your question and helps you to understand how I look at share prices. I have read no books on the subject, I am only using commercial property valuation techniques, which is also about current and future income streams, and adopting capitalisation yields, depending on the quality and future potential.
Easy peasy. Innit?
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