RE: Great News If True - Tenet may release in Europe in August25 Jul 2020 11:21
I've slept on this one. My opinion...
The UK opening won't move the SP, if it does, happy days. I'm considering it a milestone though, as it was always important that the territory opens up ASAP. I think being operational is important EVEN if operating at a loss. It will drive interest and increase confidence, taking advantage of the benefits that .GOV is offering to minimise impact on the finances. Kids/adults/people get bored and want to feel normal and not like they're in a massive open prison. When people are ready they'll go to the cinema. If no cinemas are open, they can't spend their money.
Moving release dates is a concern for me. I've always said that the studios need to get selling their products in areas that allow them and start bringing money in for CINE. I hope they will see sense and not delay releases any more than necessary or until the US opens. I think that opening up in the UK will be (another) good testing ground and will drive social media hype back across the pond. Win-win. Monitoring the situation.
SP drop, a concern but not unexpected. It was just a little more aggressive than I thought it would be. Caught me by surprise. Also an opportunity for dirt cheap purchasing.
Lawsuit is still a concern. I would now like an update to settle those nerves because IF it went Cineplex's way, I don't believe it will, it will be an even rougher ride. Unknowns are not good. I'm looking for ANY update on the Lawsuit that will shed further light on arguments (but not holding my breath it could be months).
So for the next 2 weeks I'm hold. I'm monitoring the news.
I'm Buy with the current SP and a positive opening in the UK (ticket sales). Lowering of Covid cases in USA and further confirmation of opening in the US. Ex-US Release dates confirmed and/staggered US release dates of Tenet, Mulan etc.
Strong Buy with the above and the lawsuit out the way.
I've limited concerns over CINE's financial position. For the record, any business can hide blackholes in their accounts if they really want to, I wouldn't be investing if I thought they weren't stable enough to recover or if I personally can't imagine a way out.. CINE's 'stock' is movies. They need to be open to sell them. Consider VOD releases as wastage.... We've still got all the caviar on ice but it's time to break out the Lambrini & stack your pyramids of Ferraro Roche.
It's not herd immunity that will get the world spending again, it's herd FOMO and boredom.