Member Info for DamayHill

Encouraging that somebody of Richard Sneller's conviction and track record has increased his holding from 14.1% to 15.3%. There are worse people to follow, that's for sure.

You might be right Naheedout.

In which case, have you thought about what you're going to do with the several hours a day you'll suddenly have on your hands?

Pokerchips, those someones, somewhere are the COO and the CFO. These are the two critical roles over the next 12 months.

Fevertreeman, whilst I'm not a huge fan of Bundred, I actually think him going would send the wrong message at this time and dent confidence at a fragile time. Get things stabilised (which, as I say, is mainly contingent on the COO and CFO) and on a clear growth path, then I'd like to see somebody else come in.

Interesting that the Hardman note of 23/11 states that 'one fact to bear in mind is that in October we had initially hoped revenue would be running at an annualised rate of four times the 2022 revenue for the year. The outcome was 2.5 times. We understand this figure – current for November – has reached three times'.

I would infer from this that whilst October sales have already been confirmed at £1m, November sales were (at the time the note was written) on course for more like £1.25m. If true, this would be an encouraging trajectory towards the £1.5m average monthly sales required as a minimum in H1 2024.

I must confess I became so disillusioned by any lack of meaningful progress here that I switched off for the past year or so. I wonder whether forum members with greater insight into gold mining could help interpret this. The main questions in my mind are

i) whether a resource of this modest size is only commercially viable assuming a historically high gold price?

ii) whether Riversgold are reputable and have the resources to exploit this - I notice they are a tiny outfit themselves?

iii) reminder of how long ORCP hold the license for Northern Zone?

Grateful for any thoughts on the above. Totally take your point about relinquishing 80% for £600k AG1989 but this could also represent the first actual revenue generating project, which might help alleviate concerns that this is essentially a lifestyle company for Naheed and a couple of others!

That would be very welcome Superda. As I said yesterday, for me the first trading update of 2024 is vital (I believe we're due one in January). That needs to demonstrate that the £1m sales in October continued into November and December at a minimum. Latest Hardman note forecasts £23m sales in 2024 (£9m H1; £14m H2), so run rate for the first six months of 2024 is £1.5m sales per month. If production ramp-up goes smoothly (big if) and £1.5m per month is achieved in the first half of the year with confidence to move to £2m+ per month, then this should definitely climb again, because most other parts of the jigsaw are coming into place, the most important parts of which are the order book and pipeline themselves (all very well having the production capacity unless you have the customers!). Broader market sentiment notwithstanding, I see little reason why the market cap wouldn't climb back to the £80m-£100m range - it was there before with a significantly weaker order book - which would represent a share price of 30p-36p at today's values. At this point, I'd settle for that this time next year.

Thanks pokerchips. Unfortunately, there's a world of difference between having the capacity equivalent to £50m sales per year and actually delivering product at volume, as we've seen this year. October sales were apparently £1m, so they need to demonstrate a gradual ramp-up during H1 2024 and certainly not a further reversal.

Surely... SURELY, 2023 will be in line with guidance issued on 3 Nov of £8.6m sales. If not, the Board are continuing to tell us one story whilst conscious of another. I'm taking it as read, perhaps foolishly, that there will be very little variation from that.

Therefore, the critical moment becomes the first 2024 trading update., where we need to see largely problem-free sales of £1m+ per month. If the first few months of production are materially behind the run-rate for 2024 full year guidance, then my confidence in this management team will be eroded. In the meantime, I'm prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt.

i honestly think the brokers are, by and large, absolute guessers. the number of times you see 'we believe this is the case' and then something completely different happens and they retrospectively say 'we no longer believe this is the case'. where is the professional skill or insight in that? if i said to you 'i believe ****nal will win the fa cup' and then ****nal get knocked out in the fourth round and i say 'i no longer believe ****nal will win the fa cup', that doesn't demonstrate any skill whatsoever on my part, it's simply a retro-fit statement. you see it time and time again. they simply state the new reality, after the event, with an attempted authority.

It's a thoroughly embarrassing level of elementary journalistic incompetence. She might just as well have named Oracle Corporation as the mine operator. Still, at least her profile on The Canary isn't at all self-absorbed or toe-curling. I wonder whether she feels the same way about 'exposure' and 'being held to account' when it relates to her own journalism. Pitiful.

Latest webinar well worth watching. I find Adam Davidson a very natural and compelling communicator. Absolutely no bombast, no hyperbole, just a clarity of strategy and execution. TRR one for the long term (10yr+).

I'm expecting that this might bounce back a little next week/week after, following the close of the open offer. As challenging and frustrating as things have been, I'm really struggling to justify a sub-£30m market cap.

I realise this is something of a self-evident truth but I think it depends. It depends on whether the ends justify the means and that's the big question hanging in the balance at the moment. To be fair to the existing team, they have developed what would appear to be a superior product in a high-cost-of entry market, previously monopolistic market and backed that up by securing a decent value order book and pipeline. IF things go well over the next 3-5 years then I'd say the ends will have ended up justifying the means in that we could be well on the path to a £100m+ pa t/o business with strong continuing growth prospects within a growing market, high margins, competitor barriers to entry and a self-financing capital expansion programme. At that point, the capital required to date would look like a pretty sound investment. But there are plenty of IFs along the way, as has been reflected on here a number of times.

Poole, the session was recorded and so will be available to view, though there wasn't the granularity of detail on the question you're asking. I thought on the whole it was good. Without wishing to get personal, Isabelle Maddock is a very different creature to Michael Cunningham. More expansive and reassuring a presence. October sales were reported as £1m. There was some candour that whilst customers aren't happy with the ramp up issues, it is such a commitment to select a supplier and integrate it in the first place that withdrawing from agreed contracts is really not an option. It's the follow-on contracts that will be telling and you'd hope that if they can permanently resolve capacity issues, the quality of the product will encourage them to do so. There was also a vague scent of contrition and self-awareness. There was little to no recognition (although I suppose how could they really) that the financing story they are telling with the current fundraise is the same story they told with the previous (40p) fundraise and then promptly burnt through that cash.

I will be joining the presentation later this morning. Given they can handpick which questions they choose to answer, I wonder whether they will have the courage to answer some of the tougher questions they will have been posed. Bundred's tone today is very important - will there be any self-awareness/humility or the usual blustering?

Hi Pokerchips, I think a good deal of what you say is fair but not sure I agree that a fund-raise was inevitable - at least not now and in these circumstances - and all the rhetoric, confidence and assurances from the Board were to the contrary. If it was indeed inevitable, then you have to conclude that the update statements that came immediately prior to it were disingenuous at best, given how the narrative changed dramatically in a matter of a handful of weeks. It's about the respect and courtesy that you demonstrate to your shareholders, not least when you're about to ask them for more!

For me, it's perhaps less about Johnson and Bundred's ability and experience to lead SCE (take it as a given that they haven't done so) and more about the tone-deafness and apparent lack of appreciation about how crucially important their credibility is. Without getting personal, in past Q&As, I have always found Johnson to be very measured and an excellent communicator, whereas Bundred tends to brush some very sensible shareholder questions aside with almost irritation. The timing of reassuring trading updates followed in very short order by a fundraise at 10p has done possibly the most damage to credibility and integrity. I realise it's a fairly standard convention of announcements but even beginning with '...is PLEASED to announce' gives further impression of tone-deafness. I'd personally be in favour of Bundred stepping aside once the ship is steadied a little, hopefully next Spring/Summer, but I suspect there is too much arrogance there. Cunningham making an odd-looking lateral move was the warning sign, I guess.

The sell-off may well include institutional investors who subscribed at 40p such a short time ago based on the same assurances as the rest of us. They have the resources to simply move on, unlike some of the rest of us!

Likewise fiah. Was fairly disappointed with the raise at 40p, so the thought of 10p or similar is a shock to the system. The thought I am clinging on to is that despite the poor management and, especially, the poor communications, the future of SCE arguably looks brighter than at any time, as long as they can truly get to grips with the manufacturing issues and that the confidence of customers is not irreparably dented. The order book and pipeline are strong and cash is depleted in part because of the delay in production ramp-up and in part because investment is being made in capacity for that order book and pipeline. Is it time to be greedy when others are fearful? The market cap is currently sub £30m, which is crackers. But then I come back to where I started. I also never foresaw this level of share price in any scenario other than a fundamental issue with the product, such as safety.

Very much agree with a number of the comments made here in recent days. This remains of great potential on a truly long term view (10 years +) IF we can get there. But the Board have damaged their credibility enormously over the past year or so. The H1 financials were hugely disappointing and it was a leap of faith to say the least to imagine that they would get anywhere near the original forecast but of course there was confidence, even adamance, that they would do so. I can deal with manufacturing challenges, that's to be expected to some degree. But the disingenuous communications and what therefore feels like U-turns is completely unacceptable. I have always had mixed feelings about Bundred's style. In Q&As he is perfectly civil but swats away reasonable questions from shareholders as though they are irritations. It is of modest comfort to know that he is in the same boat as many of us. I remain in for the long term (through intention but also now necessity).

I've said it before but I'll say it again: I just don't understand where the skill is in revising a target price and a sentiment AFTER THE EVENT. As we know, Barclays have hiked their target price this week after the results. How is that any more skilled than me saying now that I think ****nal will do well this season and I think Liverpool will struggle? It seems to me that eight times out of ten these things are reactive rather than predictive. Easiest job in the world. Happy to be corrected if somebody can explain to me where the skill is!