Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Indeed. My expectation is at least one (but probably one) substantive additional contract confirmed in Q4 and for SP to settle in a new range which I would estimate at 75-90p. No complaints from me should that materialize.
I don't imagine it had any bearing at all but I did write to her over the weekend recommending that they demonstrate an understanding and transparency about the matters on the JCC agenda directly relevant to ORCP, as per my previous post, so I'm glad to see this update, even if it means that the JCC doesn't look like there will be much for us to get excited about. It's the clearest update we've had re Thar for a long time, so good to see it, even if it was long overdue.
I would very much like to see ORCP put out a statement setting out which matters/decisions that are directly relevant to ORCP it anticipates being on the agenda at this JCC meeting, as it feels like such an opaque process from the outside. I'm not talking about any hype, just a factual statement around the matters under consideration that affect us and, if none, why not and what the alternative process is. What had been long anticipation of an LOI for the power plant has now diverged (possibly for the better) by questions of CtG and CtL policy and capability. It's a great opportunity for Naheed and her team to demonstrate that they both understand the decision-making framework and are willing to be entirely transparent about it with patient shareholders.
So Castlepaul has no faith in the leadership/company but will be back in and will do so AFTER the news that is going to drive the share price has dropped.
Some people have that ability to make the rest of us feel, however briefly, like master investors...
That's really good to hear fevertreeman. I agree the markets look very toppy but to be honest I thought that six months ago and they've just carried on heading north! Best of luck to you!
Another way of looking at it is that nothing has materially changed since the share price was trading at 20%+ higher levels, so you're getting a buying opportunity at a significantly reduced price for the same circumstances as a few months ago. I've just taken some more at this price and I still fully expect a further contract announcement this calendar year (I think with OEM9 if I'm interpreting correctly) but don't massively mind when it comes so long as it does come! At which point I expect the share price will take another significant step upwards and remain within a new range, where perhaps the recent upper range of c.80p become the new lower range. My holding is almost entirely within my SIPP so I have the luxury (?!) of taking a very long-term view.
The big takeaway for me from the NEDs was not so much the difficulty in negotiating with OEMs (in a largely monopolistic market that wants/needs dual sourcing, SCE are arguably in a strong negotiating position), as the work required to definitively get each contract over the line given how definitive a decision it is.
Yes, we're all aware of what you were doing - how could we not be, you basically posted the same thing three times.
I assume you are back in this share then? How long this time before you decide it's all completely hopeless and sell up?
What's it like losing c.10% on the spread every time you throw your toys out of the cot?
I for one don't want to go on your constant emotional rollercoaster with you - it's boring beyond belief.
adamadd, then perhaps you get a sense of how others feel every time you post your customary drivel, which constantly veers between "the end of the world is nigh" and "by this time next year we'll be millionaires, Rodney" with tedious predictability. Welcome to our world.
Personally happy to get the opportunity to buy some more at these prices. Whilst I don't think this is a certainty - any business which relies so fundamentally on product quality assurance / reputation carries risk - I do this this is a buy and hold for a long time, by which I mean 10 years +, not 10 weeks +! I think there will continue to be a pattern where the share price takes a big step up off the back of contract news and then subsides a little as those with a shorter term outlook or a desire to be invested elsewhere (both of which are valid) take their gains. Three steps forward, one step back is just fine.
Spot on Luckybob, some people can't distinguish between process and content.
There is a phrase that I use often in my working life which is 'operational successful, patient died' ie we abided by the process with the wrong result.
First of all, I agree wholeheartedly with RB40 that BT is a bonus and my expectations are limited. It's simply not why I'm here. Secondly, the idea that any individual posting an opinion on this board has any impact whatsoever on SP is just laughable. If anybody is here with that intention or purpose, it's tragic and deluded, so why not just allow all opinions (and differences of opinion - not seeking to quell debate).
completelynew, I disagree. First of all, a small dedicated team will work on any one account, irrespective of how large or prestigious the PR firm may be. More importantly, ST is an almost exclusively business to business model, not business to consumer, so actually having a team with depth of experience in the relatively niche performance automotive sector is exactly the right approach. If you asked 1,000 people on the street what Brembo is or does, how many do you reckon would know the answer?
Before lockdown, I recall speaking with a friend who asked about some of my investments. When it came to the riskier end of things, he scoffed slightly at the notion of making money from AIM-listed, microcap resources plays and he fell back on that old line: "if it was that easy, everybody would invest in it". I reminded him of a few things:
1) the vast majority of people globally have not enough money to live adequately, let alone to save, let alone invest
2) of those who do, only a minority play any active part in managing their investments
3) of those who do, the majority actively choose mutual funds and trackers, rather than individual share holdings
4) of those who do choose individual share holdings, the majority prefer less risky blue-chip/main market shares, rather than AIM listed shares
5) of those who do choose AIM-listed shares, many will focus on other sectors such as biopharma/biotech/fintech and never look at a resources play
6) of those who will look at resources plays, there is such an abundance of them to choose from and many would in any case not look at a true micro-cap like ORCP
What I'm saying is that whilst we must all be prepared for things not to work out as we hope - that's a risk we all take and must accept when we invest in something of this nature - if this really does start to move north and significantly so, remember that your decision to invest was not something that everybody could or would do, contrary to my friend's rather facile response.