Brokers14 Nov 2021 08:49
First of all, I feel for those who have been affected by the share price crash on Friday.
The issue I wanted to raise is that I think it once again highlights whether broker ratings and targets have very much value at all. Right up until the moment the RNS was released, a variety of brokers were advising their clients that this was a buy and had been advising such for months. In some instances, this advice immediately changed to a sell. I’ve no problem with a broker altering their rating over time, particularly as a share price increases and the valuation begins to look over-cooked. But what we saw this week was akin to a broker advising their clients that they thought Manchester City were going to win the FA Cup and then after a third round exit saying “we no longer believe Manchester City are going to win the FA Cup”. Brilliant. What level of expertise does that require? Time and time again I see precious little correlation between broker ratings/price targets and then what actually transpires. Sometimes, it’s so far wide of the mark that you wonder how they managed to get it so wrong. Broker notes seem to wield a large influence (look at Peel Hunt and DARK very recently), but rarely if ever do I see them held to any sort of retrospective account. It must be the easiest job in the world next to being an auctioneer valuer!
You might say that they don’t have a crystal ball and couldn’t necessarily have predicted events this week any more than anyone else. But that’s kind of my point.
Full disclosure, AVON is a share I’ve liked and tracked for about five years but have never held and felt I’d probably missed the boat. I do feel this may have a little further to fall, though I’d be surprised by anything sub 750p. I’ll be watching for a little longer but may then take a position.