Member Info for Dalester

If the FDA wont approve a British cure for multiple cancers, then we should just open a private hospital next to Heathrow or Manchester and fly in thousands of Americans each month for treatment.. at a premium of course. But I have no doubt there would be huge queues. £ 100,000 per patient would be peanuts for US insurance companies.

Given where our SP is at right now, and that BioNTech is possibly looking at an $800m IPO at the end of 2020 which could value them at $4+Bn . Would we be interested in a cash deal with them to keep the lights on for now followed by a shares-plus-cash or even an all-shares buyout in due course post IPO? I am not sure about the mechanics but I would have thought some sort of deal involving BioNTech shares should be possible once a public offer goes ahead.

My buy is showing as a sell

Just managed a small top up at 3.8 to help reduce average, if this goes back over 4p with some alacrity that would be nice!

And here too ... apols if this has already been posted
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/trending/jFgTuKCPDhlK5THpN5Euqg2

Saw a tweet this morning suggesting that Deutsche Bank are advising Rio Tinto to buy into gold mkners and that Newcrest would be the target. That might throw the cat amongst the pigeons you might imagine.

6 days ago · Rio Tinto should get into the gold business, according to Deutsche Bank analysts, and use its strong recent run on the market to target Newcrest Mining with an all-scrip takeover offer. ... Both Rio and BHP have spent much of the past five years slimming down, reshaping their ... the rest is in The Australian behind a paywall.

I think we have to regard this as good news, maybe not enough to start the SP moving North but definitely another brick in the wall for the company and at least a promise of better things for the future assuming we get the hoped-for results.
If the results of this trial indicate much-improved outcomes, am I right in thinking that whilst Keytruda is the checkpoint inhibitor chosen for this trial, in the event of a really good result, we can expect other CI owners to be much more interested in Scib2 and 2 ?. October November for results ... tick tock. Who knows, we might be at 6p by the end of the year!! I just hope the board have their ducks in a row now and enough in the bank to get the next funding at a decent price or better still a deal of some sort.

I think Inan is suggesting a Price/Earnings ratio of 10
Below is the Price /Earnings ratio for Pfizer based on last years earnings which at 9.9 suggests it is undervalued when seen against a Biotech average of over 23x
Formula:
Price-Earnings Ratio = Price per share ÷ Earnings per share

P/E Calculation for PFE
Price per share = $35.17
Earnings per share = $3.56
? Price-Earnings Ratio = $35.17 ÷ $3.56 = 9.9x .. an industry avg P/E of 23 would suggest a share price of $81

so £300m Scancell earnings x P/E of 10 gives £3000m / Circa 400m shares give a £/share of £7.50 and a ratio of 23 gives a price of £17.25

The RNSof 20th March told us about the award of patent in the US and Europe for Modi1. It also included the following
: Additional claims that aim to protect other aspects of the Moditope® platform are being pursued in the US. Grant in the US follows grant of corresponding patents in Europe, as announced last year, South Africa and Australia, and acceptance for grant in China. Counterparts to these patents are being prosecuted in other territories of importance to Scancell.
So is the continuing radio silence from HQ a symptom of ongoing talks which are ultimately dependent on further IP protection? Eg China ... Head and neck cancer?

The SP decline is a buggeration and one might have thought that a few director purchases might have been made at these prices if only as a small gesture, but, if there are talks afoot, might they be locked in?

Interesting thoughts. On the other hand there are thousands of people dying from the infection this drug is designed to stop and this antibiotic is resistant to the declining effectiveness of the existing go-to drugs. For the FDA to ditch this antibiotic at a time when governments are offering cash for new AB developments seems extreme to say the least. I guess its about the balancing of risk and if that means warning hospitals about a small risk which might turn out to be no risk at all then I guess thats acceptable. To demand huge re-trials at this stage strikes me as completely unreasonable . Time for some common sense to prevail. To kill this drug now sends out all sorts of wrong messages.

I think there are lots of shareholders across the board getting a bit spooked by the shenanigans in Parliament and with the EU who are perhaps taking some profits off the table and will continue to do so until we see where we are on March 30th. I really don't have the cash to keep trying to average down so I guess my options are to hold or sell and maybe buy back later. Not keen on selling good companies at evens or a loss though, particularly when transformational news could drop any day. Decisions decisions.

This is hard to sit and watch... down nearly 10% now. Thoughts?

From the FDA Website:
What FDA Is Doing:
FDA combating antibiotic resistance through activities that include

"Encouraging the development of new antibiotics. FDA is actively engaged in developing guidance for industry on the types of clinical studies that could be performed to evaluate how an antibacterial drug works for the treatment of different types of infections".

I think this has all been caused by unintended consequences from the US Government shutdown.
Running out of money, the FDA prioritised companies that had paid a fee, Motif hadn't and was pushed down the line. By way of keeping the ball in the air a CLR was issued to buy time, but to ensure a simple resolution they targeted the main USP of Iclaprim as a reason for needing more information... so far not good but not devastating.
What they didn't anticipate was a huge sell-off by UK institutional investors thus jeopardising the whole company and a valuable new antibiotic in the process. Lumsden needs to get back to the FDA on Monday morning and tell them he needs a quick decision or the whole project could fail. The FDA will not look good if they kill off a new, much-needed antibiotic because they made a poor scheduling decision. And even if it is bought by another company, how will they then approve it without new trials and a huge waste of more money? They can hardly say it's all OK now an American company has bought the dregs of the company we killed off because we couldn't meet our own statutory time frames.
In any other circumstances a new drug like this could have cost $Bns to develop, everyone is desperate for new antibiotics and to treat the final hurdle in such a cavalier way and to simply issue a letter is frankly amateurish by the FDA
Pizzed off LTH

Inan, but for you and a few other posters on here the majority of us would be completely in the dark and I am grateful for your input. The isue remains that the the company is utterly useless at the PR side of the business. RNSs are blunt and to the point when a little bit of story telling would help everyone, especially people who have not been in this share for ages. There are lots of questions that a newbie would ask that could be included in RNSs : Why are there now multiple platforms? Where do they overlap? Why do we need them? Which is the priority? How will they be monitised?
And so on. No one doubts the science, but are you confident there is the expertise to ensure the shareholders get full benefit for their patience? You might imagine a cure for cancer would be an easy sell, but the reality seems to be proving more difficult. Is there an inherent problem with the science that puts others off, or is it just that the BoD can't pitch a deal and see it through to closure?

Or maybe a dump and dump operation. To be honest I am starting to be concerned about my investment here. I have been here for the better part of 5 years working on the assumption that a company on the brink of a cure for cancer would be a fantatic investment. It never occured to me that this company would be so well run on the science side and yet so hapless on the business aspects of what needs to be done. Essentially I have been chasing a falling share price since day one. Its now time for the company to realise that they need to embrace some serious PR and stop treating investors like the proverbial mushrooms. Even a simple road map and occasional newsletter to keep us in the loop would be better than the current wall of silence on the business opportunities. Its been 12 months since the collabration with BioNtech started, how is it progressing? Is the FDA submission back on track? Will we get 2 trials started this year? Surely if there is to be yet another cash raise, its better done at 15p than 5p?
Pull your fingers out and get a deal over the line for crying out loud. This is painful.

No need to get all defensive! The point is this cosy echo chamber doesn't get out to the wider audience that this company needs. I have no doubt that you understand what's happening with the science and thanks to you I know more about it than many but there are millions who have never even heard of Scancell, and that's a problem for the BoD to solve and I for one wish they would do so quickly and effectively.

that someone from the company would, in very simple terms lay out exactly what the company is working on, what they are creating and why what they have already created is important and where it is all leading to. A roadmap and a loose timeline would help potential investors realise what is going on behind what seem to be very tightly shut doors.

The current share price cannot be regarded as a particularly good thing by anyone, it may well present an opportunity to buy more as I did last week, but is all this brilliant science really only worth £30m? It would cost another company £100s of millions to reach Scancell's position and yet here we are, apparently unloved by investors and uninvestable by the industry.

It's great that they are so busy in the labs, but surely it's time for someone to start taking the share price seriously and to start telling the Scancell story to a much wider audience albeit in simplified terms that layman investors, journalists and broadcasters can easily get to grips with?

I had hoped that the GC would be a vehicle for getting the Scancell story into the press, but failing that the company needs to get stuck in. A £30m MC is pitiful and needs someone's attention PDQ. I have been here for 5 years now and am in for the long haul, assuming old age doesn't see me off first but jeez, it would be nice to see some patches of blue sky now.

Maybe an RNS tomorrow explaining where the Biontec relationship goes from here? The board must have devised a plan to cushion the effects of not being selected I would have thought.

I think Alexa might have missed out the compounding effect Ian B, if today is 100% tomorrow will 103%, the day after will be 103+3% and so on, I think that gives 68p at 3% daily and 106p at 5% but I will be happy with the figures Alexa arrived at.