Member Info for Daisan

Looks like a couple of trades late in the day that may well be Labro returning. One for 150k shares and one for 50k shares. Not huge but indicative of the impact even small trades can have on this. Not long left to (potentially!) find out what Labro are ultimately going to do.

Banksman, The forward selling will support the operational performance of the company but it doesn't change market sentiment. Sentiment towards gold is quite poor currently and this will affect SHG along with other goldies. What it does mean is that when sentiment changes, as it will, then SHG will be in a more operationally secure position than otherwise and should ultimately reap the rewards. AIM is driven by sentiment in the short term and fundamentals are only reflected in long term price performance. You only have to look at all the garbage that has risen sharply on AIM recently to understand that to be the case!

Agreed NicotineNelly. There are also still people calling for sub-$1000/oz gold with the argument that it has not broken out of the downtrend started in 2011. Still possible of course although I rate a double bottom at $1050 as more likely although not as likely as $1150 holding and gold resuming its uptrend. Whichever scenario is accurate, SHG is doing well operationally and looks set to transition to underground mining as smoothly as can be expected (with the inevitable short term hit on production).

This is an area that just keeps giving when it comes to decent grade deposits. They keep drilling and it just keeps turning up positive results. It's a bit like playing battleships and constantly getting a hit! Given that they are pulling together a resource for Nkuluwisi, I got the impression from the RNS that previous drilling results were available but I can't find any. Anybody know about this? Of concern is the market reaction. This feels more like a bear market than a bull market to be honest and the plunge in gold stocks in North America is a concern. In a bull market I would expect these results to have triggered a significant uptick but we have the opposite. Considering that we have hardly had upwards movement over the last few weeks (precisely the opposite) I wonder whether we have reverted to the 'all news is bad news' mode which would be a worry. This area looks like it should be provide support based on the charts but not sure how strong that will be.

I think that they nicked a fair few more by the close of trading. Too easy.

It certainly looks like Labro are taking a break again and the goldfish investors on AIM are quickly getting bored. Last traded at 16p. Interestingly the trades today have been outside of the stated spread.

Tractorhead, The evidence of the last few weeks suggests that Labro and the consortium do indeed wish to purchase up to their limit. If they don't do this by the end of the month then they cannot buy any more without triggering a takeover which would mean they would have to offer an amount for all of the outstanding shares. They cannot just 'go on buying as much as they want as long as they want'. We have no evidence to suggest that they do not want to own the whole company, just that they are accumulating. Personally, I feel that being a significant minority shareholder in a listed company could be a bit of a pain in the butt. Much easier for them in the long term to take the company over and delist. They can do anything they want with it then. The whole argument here has been that the time limit and the number of shares they are allowed to purchase would push the price up to a minimum takeover offer. Unfortunately AIM investors by and large are like small children with all that implies in terms of emotional decision making and short attention spans. As such they have made it far easier for Labro than they should have. As you indicate, there are two dynamics at play here. The more immediate one is Labro's buying and intentions. The longer term one is progress on developing the known resource into a mine. The last RNS related to this did indeed give the share price a boost. If they did come up with a concrete plan to develop this then who knows where the price will go as that could potentially be the path to full value.

Well, there we have it - a timely RNS indicating that Shanta is unaffected.

Drop at Acacia looks overdone to me but the market hates uncertainty.

That's an interesting one. I don't know is the simple answer but am about to look for the answer.

No way have they stopped buying. They have paused in the past to let the impatient sell out so that they don't push the share price up too quickly and I suggest this is what they are doing currently. It is amazing how this has created so little attention compared with many other companies on AIM. Considering the situation this should have created far more volume and comments on this board. There are some boards which generate 1000+ posts in a day on news. It is usually inversely proportional to the quality of the assets!

A couple of reasons. Firstly, gold has not been strong the last few days and there is some nervousness that it will find going difficult for a while. Secondly, the production numbers have been poor here for the last few quarters and it looks like January's number was very low. For AAZ, low production and lower gold price translates to a potential focus on the debt (erroneously now I believe as the debt situation is manageable). For a sustained rise here we need to see a stabilisation and then an increase in the production profile as well as strength in the gold price. I would keep an eye on February's production figure released soon and also look for the grade in the next quarterly report as this has been the main area of concern for me. If we can see that grade getting back to more normal levels then the production will correct itself and this can get back to more of a stable position.

I must clearly be missing something here. If a takeover offer is made by Labro it cannot be for less than 20.5p now. This seems like a very low risk opportunity to see how far they will go and people are selling for 10% less? And there were a couple of decent sized sells today so clearly people have had enough. But enough of what exactly? Very odd and it looks like Labro are going to be the winners.

It's a good question Pablo2. And I confess that I don't know the answer explicitly. However, they have been operating in this way for quite a while so I suspect that if they didn't qualify that things would have come to a head by now, although nothing would surprise me in the shoddy little market called AIM.

Round numbers. Happens all the time unfortunately. It is just not predictable how many will sell.

I suspect that they have collected a few over the last couple of days. People are being far too generous.

Except for the fact that their partner on their main project is not paying them their dues. Hence, the reason why this is going down. If it is temporary/a misunderstanding then this will correct itself over time. However, if the partner is basically thumbing its nose at STI then expect a prolonged legal action and sustained downwards pressure on the share price.

sparkyboy1, The RNSs are a good place to start! They don't 'need' to buy anything but they are allowed to pick up another 4.4m shares by the end of March from yesterday and by their buying patterns it is clear that they will buy as many as they are allowed to. Unfortunately people have been making it far too easy for them and they have managed to accelerate their purchases over the last few sessions. I suspect that they bought some yesterday so have about 4m left to buy. If the selling has dried up for now then 4m over the next month is likely to push this up to the next round numbers. I suspect a pause at 25p if it gets there but 30p is the obvious round number target. After the end of March, who knows? If they do go for a takeover then whatever is the maximum price they have paid over the previous year is the minimum they can offer. I would expect a premium but not a massive one. It all depends on whether the people left in can keep their nerve. The activities over the last few sessions suggest that this is unlikely! A couple of kickers in the equation - the gold price and actual operational progress. If our CEO can suggest to the market that things are moving apace then the strong gold price may well persuade people to buy in regardless. It is, after all, a pretty big resource.

You have to appreciate the irony of CRND reporting on water as an issue. Too much, too little. It seems to be their bête noire.

pablo2, This is what has been irritating me for some time. It is not rocket science. Just hold on to your shares and they will be forced to pay higher and higher prices. But it is a game of chicken. See who can hold out the longest before opting out. Round numbers have always attracted sellers but I suspect that 20p will finally go in the next few days if Labro keep up the rate of buying. But it is what happens at the end of March that is the simple thing. If Labro just stop (as they must) and we go into a void then the share price could well drift. However, personally I believe that the most likely scenario is that Labro will come in with a takeover offer.