Member Info for Daisan

Cheerio OLI12. I am glad that you made money out of this. It has taken rather a long time for you but worth it in the end. I hope that your future investments work out for you.

I think that everyone remains cautious from an operational point of view but the last news was certainly a step in the right direction. For the last few months I have considered this purely a technical play - one entity wanted to build a stake up to a certain point and time. This was bound to produce pressure on the price and the frustration was that people were giving it away too cheaply. I think that since the news release the rise has certainly been more related to PIs buying into the company on the expectation that finally something is going to happen and that the gold resource can realise its true value at a time when it looks like the sentiment towards gold is shifting again. I am not sure that this is something to be particularly concerned about and surely we wanted people to buy into this to make it more difficult for Labro to achieve a takeover?

mcsquares, You should have been here in the 6-7p days. It was frustrating to watch Labro collect shares without having to try. At least now they have to work for them if they want to build their stake.

OLI12, Ramped up in what sense? I am always on the look out for people just ramping the price with no fundamental basis but people don't seem to be doing that on this board..... yet. And I have not seen much on Twitter which is where most of the unsavoury behaviour tends to occur these days. Pablo2 looks to be the most vocal but even he is not tweeting constantly about it. If you compare to something like FRR where there were 800 posts a couple of days ago, this is positively quiet. I suspect that this will not be a straight line rise but the price action combined with volume suggests that the momentum is actually building. Of course, this can change course quickly but currently it looks positive from a share price perspective. I think that everyone is looking at Labro's purchases with interest!

Well, 20.12p has been paid which is not something I would have envisaged even a few days ago. Everyone needs to make their own decision. From my perspective we seem to be experiencing a fair amount of momentum lately without going completely bonkers (i.e. 100% rise in a day) . The pressure from Labro is not going to go for some time and it has only been recently that PIs have been buying in so I think that I will stick with it for a while.

Based on what? In situ valuation? Different value for measured, indicated and inferred? Reserves? Many ways to value it, none of them particularly satisfactory.

I just had a look back through the announcements and I believe that I may have been misquoting the warrant price. It looks like it is in US dollars rather than pounds ($0.234 to be precise) which at current exchange rates equates to 18.7p.

I make it just over 2m but even so their accumulation has been at a considerably slower rate than they need to go at to achieve the maximum amount by the end of March.

Realdeal2, I will give you a quick synopsis. 7m oz (6m measured and indicated) gold resource in Kyrgyz Republic with opportunity for both open pit and underground development. Low cost option for heap leach operation to produce from 60-100k oz per annum. Over the years multiple studies have been carried out suggesting potential but none has come to fruition and frustration set in with investors which led to a downward share price spiral. In the last few months the major shareholder has become Chairman and has been given the green light to buy in the market up to a maximum of 40% of the company by the end of March 2017. This includes warrants priced at 15p. Still has 7m+ to buy which is putting upward pressure on the price. Chairman's buying has pushed this up from 5p to current but the recent activity has been as a result of the fact that the company released news that suggested something would actually start happening with raising finance and developing the operation. This is in the hands of the Chairman and new COO respectively thus seemingly bypassing what has been considered the blocker - the CEO. Run up to end March should be interesting but it is what happens after that that is the great unknown. There has been a recent cash offer but the details of this were not revealed. Whether someone comes in to make an offer or Labro (the Chairman's vehicle) seeks to is unclear currently.

Well, if it wasn't obvious before, the last few days have indicated that this is being re-rated. A double whammy at the moment - continued buying by our Chairman and his cabal and a rising belief that the project is actually going somewhere that will release the value contained in what is a very large gold resource. 15p warrant price didn't make it blink. I would suggest that private investors are more in control of this now than Labro and it looks like this may well progress rapidly in the run up to the end of March. I will be very interested to see the holdings notices over the next few days. If these haven't accelerated then this is indeed being PI driven and Labro is just adding fuel to the fire.

No it isn't.

Judging by the trades I think that a good deal of these are new investors rather than Labro but will await with interest any new holdings announcements. Given this kind of activity, there is a real chance that this could move substantially higher in the run up to the end of March. I had suspected that 15p would prove a pause point but it has barely stuttered. If you have shipped almost 1m shares (very brave - I wouldn't put anywhere near that amount in a company like this!) then they have been happily swallowed by the markets. Should this availability of shares dry up (and activity suggests that this is indeed possible) and demand remains, this could move up quickly and 50p wouldn't be out of the question (a few weeks ago I didn't think that I could even think that). Of course, demand can dry up very quickly and supply come on strongly when price rises rapidly. Probably getting ahead of myself but if you look at the price and volume over the last month we have gone from 9p to 16.5p and it is only very recently that volume has risen. You never know, should Labro indeed seek to takeover the company, they may actually end up having to pay a reasonable amount!

Well, the point about the price at which they buy is that it determines the lowest that they would be forced to pay for any takeover. We knew that they would have to pay 15p for the warrants so that was the previous base point. If they have bought @ 16p then the warrant price no longer has any meaning. Continued strong buying here bodes well for the next month and a half!

That may well be the case. Certainly there are people who now see value beyond 15p judging by today's activities. We are coming into reasonably uncharted waters now at price levels not seen for 4 years. It looks like sentiment is finally overcoming the impact of the last few year's doldrums.

But they would not be able to prevent the update. They do not control the company currently so to suppress news is not possible. The interesting thing was the response to the news. Usually the market just shrugs its shoulders and sentiment remains grim. This time the news managed to be released at a time when sentiment has shifted somewhat and managed to reinforce that. This is what I meant when I posted on the news a couple of days ago. Labro are having to juggle market dynamics currently. They have done this very well up to now but the last update has forced them to dig deeper which is why I was suggesting that the ultimate price may be higher than I initially considered. I do not see that the situation has changed as regards Labro's intentions. I considered takeover as the most likely (but not only) option before and still do now.

Is the key price. Labro have now paid 15p but we already knew that they would pay this price owing to the warrants. If they pay more than this then the game really is on as we don't have visibility of their highest price. Still can buy 7.4m shares in 34 trading sessions. Fascinating stuff.

I read earlier in this thread that somebody felt PJ avoided a conflict of interest whilst at MTR. I believe that completely the opposite was the case. He frequently bought in himself and then put MTR's funds into it subsequently. That was his MO. Clearly if he was happy to do it at MTR I am sure that he would be happy to do it at CAF.

Tractorhead, It's a bulletin board! If we didn't speculate on the primary activity taking place on CGH, namely Labro's continued buying, what would we talk about? Only the last RNS has changed the dynamic somewhat but Labro will continue to dominate the theme here owing to its stake, its warrants and its continued buying.

I tend to agree that this trade is a 'sell' given the price at the time. Actually you can create a case that either is positive in a rising market but it has been a decent rise given that this trade would have been a drag on any rise. Very positive sentiment here currently combined with a persistent buyer spells higher prices but 15p is the key. We'll see over the next few days whether the warrant conversion price is a hindrance to further rises (only because investors may consider that Labro will be more reluctant to buy above that point).

This is a twist. I never factored in improving sentiment based on actual progress rather than the potential for a takeover. If the renewed energy evident in this RNS can be consistently translated into actual sustained progress then this could actually be a transformational event as regards the potential price target. One possible fly in the ointment is the fact that the chairman is in charge of financing. Normally I would view this as a very positive situation but I am not yet prepared to change my mindset as regards our chairman from vulture to facilitator. Interesting. So far the reaction in the market has been positive and we haven't seen these prices for a long time.